536
FXUS63 KLBF 212332
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
632 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower/thunder chances increase tonight into Friday as a cold
  front moves south through the area.

- Much cooler weather is in store this weekend into the first
  and middle of next week.

- There will be a chance for some rainfall, mostly confined to
  the higher terrain and western high plains within area of low-
  level upslope flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025


A strong shortwave crosses southern Canada tonight into Friday, with
a cold front moving southward into the area Friday. A somewhat
cooler day is expected Friday, especially across northern Nebraska,
where highs are only expected to reach the upper 70s. South of the
front highs will still be quite warm (lower 90s) across portions of
southwest Nebraska. Shear increases Friday as winds aloft strengthen
on the southern side of the northern stream shortwave. A narrow
corridor of surface based CAPE develops along the southward moving
cold front. It appears a capping inversion may limit any storm
development along and ahead of the front, with the better chances
north of the boundary Friday evening within area of stronger mid-
level FGEN. Shear along with a decent amount of elevated CAPE should
lead to a few southeastward moving stronger storms. Mid-level lapse
rates are marginal at best, and not expecting much in the way of
severe. An isolated severe storm cannot be completely ruled out
however, and if can get a sponger updraft hail could occur with such
strong shear. Some of the CAM models do bring a wave through late
Friday night, which could lead to an increase shower/thunder
activity. There is quite a bit of spread on timing and location, and
confidence is low on just how much precipitation develop with some of
the CAMs completely dry.

Surface high pressure settles into central Nebraska by Saturday
afternoon. Southeast upslope low-level flow west of the high across
the Panhandle into far southwest Nebraska will likely lead to
scattered afternoon shower/storm development. Shear is strong but
CAPE is weak, still could see an isolated stronger storm or two.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Cooler temperatures and precipitation chances will dominate Sunday
into the middle of next week. Upper level high pressure will
dominate across the southern plains. Meanwhile a slow moving upper
low will be located across the Great Lakes region. Mid and upper
level monsoonal moisture will be rotating north and eastward from
Mexico into the desert southwest and into the western high plains.
This will bring the possibility of daily shower/thunder chances,
especially across the southwest half of Nebraska. As mentioned in
will be cooler. Temperatures will be much below normal, with several
days of high temperatures only in the 70s. In fact, highs will be
below the 10th %tile of maximum high temperatures for this time
of year. May not see some areas get out of the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

High and mid level cloudiness will continue to increase into
the late evening and overnight hours across the area. There will
be a minor threat for thunderstorms late tonight in the
vicinity of the Valentine terminal. Current forecast confidence
is low as coverage of storms is expected to be isolated. The
greatest threat for thunderstorms in the vicinity of the KVTN
terminal will be from 09z to 14Z Friday. Beyond this time,
expect broken ceilings around 20000 FT AGL at the KLBF terminal
and 8000 to 10000 FT AGL at the KVTN terminal.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler