322
FXUS63 KLBF 082343
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
643 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight. A few strong or
  perhaps severe storms could occur this evening.

- A continued chance for at least isolated showers and storms
  will exist through the weekend. Otherwise it will be somewhat
  cooler and less humid.

- A return to the heat is anticipated next week with only small
  chances for any rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

A strong shortwave is tracking from the northern Rockies into the
Dakotas and southern Canada this afternoon. A cold front is moving
southward through the area this afternoon. The cooler air is lagging
behind the front somewhat, with temperatures in the upper 80s and
90s behind the front across southwest into central Nebraska.
Meanwhile, cooler but still rather moist air is located across
northwest Nebraska into western South Dakota. As upper level forcing
increases late this afternoon and evening, scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop. It appears that surfaced based storms
should initiate across the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming late
this afternoon. These move eastward across southern South Dakota and
potentially northern Nebraska early to mid-evening. Shear will be
sufficient that a supercell or two could emerge out of this
convection. Run to run HRRR have been pointing to southern South
Dakota seeing the higher potential for a rather quick eastward
moving supercell. We`ll of course monitor the initial convection as
this will be in close proximity to northern Nebraska. Strong winds
and hail would be the threats with any supercell. Later this evening
as the low-level jet increases across Kansas, scattered more
elevated type convection should develop across portions of southwest
and central Nebraska and the Sandhills. An isolated strong/briefly
severe storm or two will be possible with this activity, with the
primary threat being large hail.

Surface high pressure builds into the area Saturday behind the
front. Sinking air and drier advection from the northwest will lower
dew points somewhat. Temperatures will also be cooler, with highs in
the 80s. Colder air aloft will filter into the area with lapse rates
steepening. There will be at some residual low-level moisture around
and cannot rule out a couple of isolated thunderstorms developing. By
far through the higher severe threat looks to be across eastern
Colorado in a favorable moist upslope environment.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

The cold front driven southward by the northern plains upper
low/shortwave, will stall across northern Kansas Sunday and Monday.
It appears the better chance for rainfall will remain across
southern Nebraska and especially into northern Kansas during this
time. Models have been hinting at a wave diving southeast across the
northern Rockies and then eastward across the Plains late Saturday
night into Sunday. This could bring a round of showers/thunder to
the area, especially across portions of southwest Nebraska.

Upper level high pressure will begin to expand northward across the
desert southwest Tuesday and beyond. This will bring a return to
near to above highs in the upper 80s and 90s. Weak disturbances
rotating around the northern periphery of the high could spark
a few isolated thunderstorms Tuesday through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska through Saturday afternoon. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop after 03Z and
persist overnight across portions of the Sandhills and
southwest Nebraska. These will move eastward out of the area by
15Z Saturday morning. This will mainly occur at the KLBF
terminal between 07Z-14Z. Winds behind a cold front will range
up to 15KT this evening, then light northeast into Saturday
morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ007-010-027>029-038-058-059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Roberg