510
FXUS63 KLBF 032350
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
650 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall expected across western and north central
  Nebraska tonight into Friday. The heaviest rainfall will be
  focused across southwest Nebraska into the central Sandhills.

- Potential for a slushy coating of snow across the western and
  northwest Sandhills tonight into Friday morning.

- A warming trend brings temperatures above normal Tuesday
  through Thursday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A closed upper low was currently centered over eastern Utah. An
H7 trough axis extended east across west central CO into west
central KS. Rain showers are already underway across western KS
into eastern CO. Across western Nebraska, Imperial was 47
degrees and reporting light rain. North Platte was 54, while
north central Nebraska had temperatures ranging from 45 to 49.
Winds were easterly at 5 to 15 mph with gust to 20 mph across
the southwest. Light snow reported at Sidney, south into
portions of northeast Colorado including Denver, Fort Morgan and
Akron.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Tonight, an large upper trough will extend over the Rockies
into the Desert Southwest with a closed low developing over
Arizona. A lead disturbance with an H7 trough extending eastward
in southwest flow aloft over eastern CO and western KS will
lift into southwestern areas this evening and bring widespread
rain showers with near 90 POPs. An H3 jet max 100-120KT
extending from southeast New Mexico across eastern Nebraska will
also aid in upper level divergence across western Nebraska.
MUCAPEs do increase to 50-100 J/G into far southwest Nebraska
this evening, so a few thunderstorms are possible.

Models are forecasting PWATS from a half to two-thirds of an inch
overnight for areas east of Highway 61. Ensemble mean QPFs from
the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all indicate a half inch to over
three quarters of an inch across all of southwest Nebraska north
into central portions of north central Nebraska. Deterministic
models show even higher amounts, including the 12Z and 18Z HRRR
and 18Z RAP. Due to good model agreement, NBM POPs are likely
to categorical (60 to 90 percent) Tonight. The ECMWF EFI SOT
also shows a signal for QPFs centered over southwest Nebraska.

Friday, an H7 trough axis oriented southwest to northeast will
slowly move eastward during the day. Although lift appears
weak, the atmosphere will be nearly saturated. Light rain
showers still likely, mainly Highway 83 east. Highs will be
quite cool from 35 to 40 northwest Sandhills, to the low 40s to
around 45 to the east. Northerly winds increasing to 20 to 30
mph west of Highway 83, and 15 to 25 mph later in the day across
the east.

Friday night, the area will be on the backside of the upper trough
axis with a lingering chance for showers. Colder temperatures
could change any light rain to light snow for a few hours.
Little if any accumulation expected however.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Saturday, dry with northwest flow aloft, as an upper ridge builds
across the western U.S. and a deep upper trough over Hudson Bay
extends into the Great Lakes region. Although sunny, breezy
northerly winds and continued cool in the mid 40s.

Warmer Sunday, then slightly cooler Monday as a cold front drop
south across central and eastern Nebraska. Highs reflect this
from the low 60s far southwest to the mid 40s far northeast.

Then warmer Tuesday and Wednesday, as the upper flow becomes
quasi-zonal. Looks dry, except for the potential for a
shortwave trough passage Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night
when a slight chance for rain showers exist.

Highs should warm into the 60s Tuesday areawide, to the upper
60s to low 70s next Wednesday and Thursday. The 6-10 day outlook
indicates above normal temperatures and below normal
precipitation likely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The main aviation concern will be MVFR ceilings lowering to IFR
later tonight into Friday morning. Rain has moved into southwest
Nebraska and will spread north into north central Nebraska
overnight. Visibilities from -RA and BR will lower to near 2SM
OVC011 at KLBF by 04Z through 10Z, then remain near 5SM -RA BR through
Friday morning with an IFR ceiling near OVC005. At KVTN, MVFR
ceilings by 07Z in 4SM -RA BR, lowering to IFR ceilings
12Z-17Z, then improving to MVFR in the afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg