120
FXUS63 KLBF 061137
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
637 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cluster of thunderstorms will move across western Nebraska
  into the Sandhills tonight into early Sunday morning.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the holiday
  weekend, with a chance of thunderstorms late Monday.

- Precipitation chances will decrease towards the middle of the
  week as high pressure works in and brings relatively cooler
  temperatures with it.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Overnight showers and
thunderstorms will be the greatest concern. As the low level jet
intensifies overnight expect thunderstorms to increase across
southwest Nebraska. Moisture advection will keep PWATs fairly high
around 1.5 inches or more through the overnight. A flood watch was
issued across portions of southwest Nebraska to account for the
higher PWATs and expected slower moving storms, this watch will
expire at 4am CT/3am MT. Storm motion increases as the overnight
progresses and will start to see the chance for flooding decrease
early Sunday.

Showers and thunderstorms may linger through the late morning into
early afternoon hours across the eastern portion of the forecast
area. After storms exit Sunday temperatures will warm into the 90s,
which is around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.


For Labor Day, the High Plains will remain under the influence of
the the upper level ridge and will see another day of hot
temperatures with highs reaching the upper 90s across southwest
Nebraska. Will see southerly winds strengthen during the day and
winds increase to around 20 to 30 mph sustained and gusts up to 40
to 45 mph. Strongest winds will generally be along and east of HWY
83. Expect most of the day will remain dry then a front will move
southward Monday evening and stall, where it stalls will become the
focus area for showers and thunderstorms Monday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Deep troughing will cross southern Canada which will flatten mid-
level flow for the Central Plains. High pressure aloft will park
across the lower Mississippi Valley with much warmer temperatures
focused across this area. In a post-frontal regime, surface high
pressure will settle south into western Nebraska towards mid-week.
This should favor slightly cooler temperatures with decreasing
precipitation potential. Upper ridging should develop across the
West Coast and return the area to more northwesterly flow before the
next disturbance dives southeast out of the Northwest Territories.
This will shunt the greatest height anomalies further south and
promote even cooler temperatures for the end of the week into early
next week. Heights will continue to fall as a more pronounced
shortwave trough takes shape over the Pacific Northwest sometime
over the following weekend. This feature will cross the Rockies and
approach the local area sometime towards the end of the forecast
period and should support increasing precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Widespread rain and general thunderstorms continue to depart to
the east, leaving KLBF/KVTN dry for the remainder of the
daytime. Skies will gradually clear before some diurnal clouds
develop this afternoon. High level clouds will increase tonight
as convection develops well to the west and cloud debris overspreads
the area. This convection is largely expected to remain well
west of the area though with no direct impacts otherwise.
Ensemble guidance hints at MVFR conditions for northern Nebraska
late tonight including the KVTN terminal. Forecast soundings
suggest potential for IFR conditions but will defer inclusion of
this to later forecasts and highlight MVFR CIGs for now.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ