235
FXUS63 KLBF 021153
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
653 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place
  across southwest Nebraska Saturday with damaging winds the
  main concern and isolated severe hail also possible.

- Additional strong thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Monday with
  Marginal Risks (level 1 of 5) in effect each day.

- Following cooler weather through Monday, temperatures quickly
  rebound to above normal values for the latter half of the
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

This morning, scattered showers and general thunderstorms were noted
across central Nebraska. This activity was the remnants of severe
convection that tracked across northeast Colorado and is being
sustained by a shortwave disturbance. Further north, along the nose
of a modest low level jet (LLJ), more isolated showers and weak
thunderstorms were percolating across north central Nebraska into
South Dakota. Behind convection, strong southeasterly flow has been
noted with gusts around 45-55 mph. This is likely attributed to a
wake low and should remain fairly brief in nature.

This LLJ will gradually veer through the mid-morning hours and as a
result should allow for a gradual decrease in coverage and showers
through the morning. Have PoPs decreasing through 18z (1pm CDT), and
believe the bulk of the afternoon should remain dry. Cloud cover
appears likely to hamper diurnal heating once again. Though breaks
are likely to develop this afternoon, believe we`ll likely see
another day of below normal values for at least areas east of
Highway 83. Temperatures will range from the upper 70s east to
middle 80s west. Attention then turns to this afternoon into the
evening as the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms returns to
the area. Westerly mid-level flow will continue to advect a stout
EML into the area. The steep lapse rates coincident with this with
overspread the area and lead to moderate instability across western
Nebraska. The westerly flow aloft in tandem with southerly flow in
the low levels will provide ample deep-layer shear for storm
development. Storms appear likely to hold off in the local area
until the evening hours as capping appears unlikely to erode. Many
CAMs suggest storms developing around the middle of the afternoon
across southeast Wyoming with gradual transition into the local area
late in the day. The parameter space suggests mainly a damaging wind
threat, particularly as storms grow upscale while they move east.
While isolated large hail will be possible, the concern appears to
be greatest to the west. Storms should weaken as the extend east due
to increasing MLCIN west to east. Latest HRRR guidance (06z) closely
resembles expected storm evolution with the greatest storm coverage
likely across northeast Colorado, moving into southwest Nebraska
this evening and weakening as it does. The Storm Prediction Center`s
(SPC) latest Day 1 outlook shows the greatest confidence in our
southwest zones and so have no reason to object to this
thinking.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Sunday/Monday...thunderstorms remain possible each day Sunday and
Monday with SPC highlighting Marginal Risks (level 1 of 5) each day.
Ridging across the southwest CONUS will amplify with increasing mid-
level heights beginning Sunday afternoon and continuing through
Monday. Though this casts some uncertainty with respect to coverage
of forecast rain and thunderstorms, mesoscale features should
provide enough support to maintain Chance PoPs (up to 50% Sunday, up
to 35% Monday). On Sunday, weak low pressure will shift east through
the area as a mid-level perturbation within the northwesterly flow
shifts through. Rain and thunderstorms appear set to form in the
vicinity of a weak surface boundary aided by orographic lift to the
west of the area. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm
development in the afternoon and evening. Storms should form within
weak instability but encounter a more favorable environment as they
shift east. Given expected parameter space, believe the SPC Day 2
Marginal Risk is adequate. More expansive southeasterly flow and
warmer temperatures on Monday should yield at least isolated late
afternoon/evening convection. Instability and shear appear stronger
and with an increasing LLJ in the evening, believe the ceiling for
the potential severe event is higher but confidence in storm
coverage is low for now. Will need to closely monitor going forward.
Highs will reach the 80s for Sunday, and climb into the 80s to low
90s by Monday.

Tuesday and beyond...upper-level high pressure will continue to
build through the middle of the week. This will support increasing
temperatures through the time frame with NBM 25th/75th percentile
values for afternoon highs showcasing a steady climb through Friday.
Latest deterministic solutions closely hug the 50th percentile
values but potential exists for further increases in forecast highs.
Though the NBM solution paints low-end PoPs generally each day
through the period, individual ensemble solutions such as the
EPS/GEFS advertise limited if any potential for measurable rain.
From roughly Wednesday through Friday night, less than 10% of each
ensemble suite`s respective members showcase non-zero QPF. So though
PoPs will exist each day in the extended forecast, confidence is low
in seeing much if any potential for appreciable moisture. As
temperatures return to the middle to upper 90s, will need to monitor
the potential for heat concerns. At this time, should the forecast
remain unchanged, heat advisory criteria (100F heat indices) appears
to be hit for portions of the area Thursday and Friday. This will
likely be refined somewhat in the coming days so it is suggested
that folks susceptible to heat continue to monitor later forecasts
for up-to-date information.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Low stratus, while remaining localized this morning, should fill
in across the area over the next hour or so. This should lead to
prolonged MVFR conditions at both terminals through late
morning before conditions potentially improve. Visibility
restrictions owing to lingering HZ/FU remain likely and should
persist through midday before conditions improve.

Attention then turns to the threat for rain and thunderstorms
tonight arriving from the west. Believe any impacts to either
terminal would hold off until the evening but confidence in
either terminal seeing direct impacts is fairly low. Have
omitted mention at VTN and only covered with a PROB30 for LBF.
Short-term guidance remains fairly inconsistent in placement of
activity across southwest Nebraska and will cite this as the
reason for not introducing a prevailing mention. Will monitor
trends through the day and adjust the forecast as necessary.
After convection, skies should largely clear and leave much
calmer conditions for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ