361
FXUS63 KLBF 022034
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
334 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms possible across central Nebraska
  Tuesday afternoon, but most locations remain dry.

- A strong cool front will arrive tomorrow bringing Chances for
  rain and general thunderstorms favoring far north central
  Nebraska.

- Another warm up Thursday brings above normal temperatures and
  Elevated fire weather concerns before cooler temperatures
  return for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Tuesday afternoon/evening...satellite imagery shows diurnal cumulus
across the Sandhills. This was occurring behind a stalled surface
trough within stronger northerly flow. This increased flow was
promoting greater boundary layer mixing which then favors greater
fire weather concerns for the area. As of 20z (3pm CDT), northerly
winds were gusting around 20 to 25 mph and with temperatures in the
middle to upper 80s, relative humidity values were approaching 20%.
Though some locations should see humidity fall below 20%, critical
fire weather conditions are not expected and values should begin to
recover by 4-5pm MDT. Attention quickly turns to areas further east
as the surface trough slowly settles east. Various short-term
guidance, particularly HREF probabilities, highlight low-end
potential for rainfall in the area as convergence is maximized. This
was more notable with earlier runs of higher resolution guidance but
more recent outputs are largely void of any development. Forecast
soundings show little in the way of available moisture within the
profile and lift via low-level convergence fails to truly get a
jump start on anything. While NAM output is more impressive with
afternoon cloud cover and increasing instability, lift again remains
weak and nebulous. Will maintain Slight Chance (< 20%) PoPs to
account for the limited potential but gut feeling is most locations
remain dry. Should something develop, can`t completely rule out a
stronger storm but organized severe convection appears unlikely and
the latest Storm Prediction Center Day 1 outlook reflects this by
keeping only general thunder in the area. Any thunderstorm
development will quickly exit to the south and bring a swift return
to dry conditions for the overnight. Lows will range from the upper
50s east to lower 50s west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Wednesday...a well advertised cool front associated with a deeper
trough over the upper Mississippi Valley will quickly approach
western Nebraska. Overall day-to-day trend has been to delay arrival
from the north. This translates to warmer temperatures in the south
with the going forecast now calling for middle 80s south of
Interstate 80. Further north, strong CAA will promote cooler
temperatures during the afternoon with highs in the upper 60s but
also support some low-end PoPs as fgen increases. For now, PoPs max
out at ~40% invof the Missouri River but quickly trail off as you go
south and west. This suggests most locations should remain dry and
even for the select few that see rain, amounts appear light at or
below 0.10". Latest HREF localized Probability-Matched Mean (LPMM)
shows slightly higher values but given fairly large discrepancies
between LPMM and Mean output, am hesitant to buy into the more
aggressive outputs. Any precipitation should be quick to depart and
leave a dry forecast by late afternoon.

Thursday...perhaps the warmest day of the week for many. Surface
high pressure from Wednesday should settle south by daybreak and
westerly flow will redevelop as a result. This will promote WAA off
the surface and downsloping flow. The combination of these should
yield afternoon highs in the middle to upper 80s. Westerly flow will
also draw in drier air from the higher terrain and factoring in the
warmth, should allow afternoon humidity minimums to fall to the 20-
25% range. Winds will continue to veer to the northwest and as they
do, the pressure gradient will constrict due to an approaching
trough and rapid pressure rises behind as secondary high pressure
settles south along the lee of the Rockies. The warmer temperatures
and resulting gusty winds will again lead to elevated fire weather
concerns across our western zones. For now, critical conditions do
not appear likely and headlines are not anticipated for now.

Friday and beyond...cool air will again invade the region by Friday
and lead to reasonable cooldown through the weekend. Temperatures
return to 10 to 15F below normal for Friday which translates to
highs in the 60s and 70s. These should recover slightly for the
weekend but remain near to slightly below normal for early
September. Precipitation chances remain quite limited for the
upcoming extended forecast and only next week do we start to see
greater potential return to the forecast. Even so, day-to-day
probabilities remain limited (< 25%) and signals for reasonable
rainfall are largely muted.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Main aviation concern will be isolated convection this afternoon
but current thoughts are for activity to remain east of the
terminals.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ