807
FXUS63 KLBF 072053
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
353 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and fairly dry conditions will
  continue at least some low-end fire weather concerns through
  the upcoming week.

- A couple quick moving disturbances will bring light rain
  chances (25-35%) Tuesday night and Wednesday into early
  Thursday morning.

- Additional rain chances (15-25%) arrive this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

H5 analysis from this morning had a highly amplified
pattern across the CONUS and Canada. High pressure was located
southwest of Bermuda. Ridging from this feature extended north-
northeast into the northern Atlantic. West of this high, low
pressure was over northern Quebec. A broad trough of low pressure
extended to the south-southwest of this feature into eastern Texas.
West of this trough, a highly amplified ridge extended from northern
Utah, north into western Nunavut. West of this feature, low pressure
was located over the Gulf of Alaska with a trough extending
southeast to just off the coast of Washington state. At the surface
this afternoon, a back door cold front had pushed through most of
western and north central Nebraska and extended from the eastern
Nebraska Panhandle south into roughly southern Kansas. Winds north
of the front were generally from the northeast or east. Temperatures
varied widely across the area and 3 PM CT temperatures ranged from
43 degrees at O`Neill to 63 degrees at Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Surface high pressure will slide to the southeast tonight,
ending up over the mid and upper Mississippi valley Tuesday
morning. Winds will shift to the south leading to milder
readings tonight. Forecast lows will range from the upper 20s in
the east with lower to middle 30s in the west and southwest.
Lows may actually be achieved in the east during the late
evening hours with steady to slowly rising temps thereafter. A
warm front will lift through the area Tuesday morning. Strong
low level warm air advection behind the front, will push highs
into the middle to upper 70s for most locations. Some upper 60s
will be possible in the northeastern forecast area.

With the expected warmup and the development of westerly winds
Tuesday afternoon, dry boundary layer conditions, already pre-
existent, will push minimum RH to 15 to 20 percent in the eastern
Panhandle, western Sandhills and far southwestern Nebraska. With
abundant mixing, there is the potential for 25+ MPH winds in the
eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills Tuesday afternoon. For this
reason, decided to hoist a fire weather watch for zone 204 Tuesday
afternoon. After collaboration with CYS and BOU it was decided to
hoist a fire weather watch for tomorrow afternoon in zone 204. The
models do drive some mid to high cloudiness into the western half of
Nebraska Tuesday afternoon and this may throw a wrench in the temp
and min RH forecast and keep conditions above RFW criteria. With
respect to fuels across the area, fire partners across the area have
indicated that fuels are still ready to burn. They thought the warm
temperatures this week would allow more green-up of the warm season
tall grasses into next week.

A northern stream disturbance will usher in a cool front Tuesday
night shifting the winds to the northwest. Winds are not expected to
decouple, allowing temperatures to remain elevated overnight with
lows generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. Behind
the front, mid level forcing will increase across South Dakota. Some
of this weak lift will track across northern Nebraska Tuesday night
leading to an increased threat for precipitation. With the QPF
forecast only being a couple of hundredths of an inch in our far
northern zones, will limit pops to slight chances for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Fire weather concerns will highlight the main forecasting issue
in the long term. There will be a minor threat for light rain
Wednesday across northern Nebraska thanks to a second
disturbance which tracks across southern South Dakota. Further
south, where dry conditions are expected, critical to near
critical fire weather conditions will be possible Wednesday
afternoon. Northwesterly winds will gust to above 30 MPH during
the afternoon hours. With the cooler temperatures (Re. highs 10
degrees cooler than Tuesday`s highs), minimum RH will bottom out
in the 20 to 25 percent range. Thursday afternoon looks better
for critical fire weather conditions with stronger NW winds and
drier air being advected into the area from the high plains of
Wyoming and western South Dakota. Ridging will transition east
of the Rockies Friday, shifting winds to the south across the
area. These southerly winds will persist into Saturday night and
could be gusty especially during the afternoon hours. Strong
warm air advection will accompany the winds as well, pushing
highs into the 70s Friday and 80s for Saturday and possibly
Sunday. The NBM initialized with lower 80s for North Platte
Saturday and upper 70s for Sunday. These highs still remains on
the low end of the NBM ensemble forecast this weekend and I
wouldn`t be surprised if highs end up warmer than these
deterministic NBM numbers. Further support for warmer readings
lies with the latest EC EFI forecast. For Saturday there is a
80-90%EFI with a 0-1SOT for the western half of the forecast
area. The SOT shifts east on Sunday, however, the EFI isn`t as
robust at Saturday for very warm temps. For context, the NBM
25th and 75th percentiles for highs Saturday and Sunday for
North Platte are 83 to 91 (Saturday) and 77 to 98 (Sunday)
respectively. The current forecast highs for Saturday and Sunday
are 82 and 77 degrees-so there is room for upward movement on
highs both days. With gusty winds possible both days, and little
to no BL moisture, these two days will be an excellent
candidate for critical to near critical fire weather conditions.
A strong cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, will
bring temps on Monday back to seasonal normals. However, behind
the front, very dry air and gusty northwesterly winds will bring
another possibility of critical or near critical fire weather
conditions to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the effective TAF
period. Winds will continue to gradually shift this afternoon from
an easterly to southeasterly direction, becoming southerly
overnight. By tomorrow morning, winds take on a westerly direction
and begin to increase in speed. Will be monitoring for LLWS
potential tonight across western and north central Nebraska, as a
low level jet develops. Will omit LLWS from TAFs for the time being,
but may need to include on the next set, as confidence in timing and
intensity increases.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening for NEZ204.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Richie