139
FXUS63 KLBF 241745
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1245 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will bring beneficial
  rainfall amounts to much of western and north central Nebraska
  today and tonight.

- Cool and cloudy conditions persist into Memorial Day and into
  the middle of next week, along with near daily threats for
  precipitation.

- A return of average temperatures (highs in the 70s) is
  expected for late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Currently, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms continue
across portions of the Sandhills and northern Nebraska. This
activity will gradually move east this morning, amid increasing
easterly upslope flow across the area. This increasing warm
advection has lead to widespread stratus and fog development, which
will also remain in place through the day.

A cloudy, cool, and rainy day is expected for all of western and
north central Nebraska today, as broad ascent leads to widespread
shower and thunderstorm development late this afternoon and tonight.
The greatest precipitation coverage is expected this evening and
tonight, as deepening low pressure across Colorado further
strengthens the easterly low level jet. The environment this evening
and tonight looks to be conducive for efficient rainfall, with PWAT
values exceeding the 90th percentile climo by tonight. With recent
guidance suggesting the potential for training showers and
thunderstorms, this points to a threat for locally heavy rainfall.
The threat for severe weather looks less impressive, with very
meager instability largely limiting the threat. As for precipitation
amounts, the bulk of guidance suggests a swath of very beneficial
rainfall (0.5-1.5"), though some differences remain with
respect to location. Still, confidence continues to grow in a
robust swath of precipitation today and tonight across much of
western and north central Nebraska. Amounts as high as 2" are
possible locally through tomorrow morning.

A lull in precipitation intensity then is expected through the day
Sunday, with very light rain or drizzle anticipated as the low level
jet wanes. Any accumulations through the day Sunday are expected to
be restricted to less than 0.25". By Sunday night, the low level jet
strengthens yet again, leading to increasing precipitation coverage
across western Nebraska. Much like today, PWAT values remain
near the 90th percentile, and beneficial accumulations are
possible yet again. The greatest amounts look to occur along and
west of HWY 83 through Monday morning, where the greatest
shower and thunderstorm coverage is anticipated. Regardless of
precipitation, another dreary day is in store for Sunday, with
cloudy conditions and highs only climbing into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

As we head into next week, a rather complex synoptic evolution is
expected to get underway, as a pair of upper troughs interact across
the northern Plains. Exactly how this phasing (or lack thereof)
occurs remains very uncertain, and leads to low confidence in
precipitation threats into the middle of the week. With the slow
moving upper troughing remaining nearby, at least some threat looks
to persist through at least Wednesday across much of the area. This
also points to persistent cloudy and cool conditions as well, with
highs remaining well below average to round out Memorial Day weekend
and beyond. Precipitation timing and amounts will still need to
be pinned down as the synoptic evolution becomes more clear
over the next few days. The threat for any severe weather at
least looks to remain low, with little in the way of instability
to work with. By late week, upper troughing finally begins to
pull away from the area, finally leading to a return of more
average temperatures (70s).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Showers and a few thunderstorms will move through the KLBF
terminal through 20Z with MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
Prevailing showers continue through the remainder of the TAF
period into tonight and Sunday. IFR ceilings are also forecast
after 03Z. WInds will remain easterly near 10KT, will a few
gusts up to 15KT. AT KVTN, IFR ceilings with -SHRA prevailing
after 22Z, lowering to LIFT after 09Z. Visibilities will also
lower to 2SM after 09Z. Winds will remain easterly near 10KT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Roberg