916
FXUS63 KLBF 172321
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
621 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances will return to the area Friday night.
  There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms
  Friday night across north central and central Nebraska and
  across the entire forecast area Saturday afternoon into
  Saturday night.

- Hot temperatures in the mid 90s Monday and Tuesday will
  ressult in heat index values reaching the upper 90s some
  areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Tonight, stratus will build back into the area as surface low
pressure deepens from eastern Wyoming into the Black Hills.
winds will be southerly 10 to 15 mph with temperatures from near
60 to the low 60s. Could see patchy fog over portions of
Lincoln, Frontier and Custer County based on recent runs of the
HRRR and RAP.


Morning stratus will burn off by late morning with a noticeable
warmup for Friday, as a weak surface boundary develops from the
central panhandle into eastern portions of north central
Nebraska. This boundary will be the initial focus for isolated
storms to develop on after 22Z. Highs return to the low 90s
across southwestern areas to 85 to 90 elsewhere. Storm chances
increase Friday night, off the surface boundary into the
evening, and also from storms off the higher terrain to our
northwest, with another area of development from southeast South
Dakota through the mid Missouri Valley, which could affect our
far eastern Counties. A Marginal Risk is forecast for areas
northof an Oshkosh through Callaway line overnight. Overall,
coverage of storms appears isolated, unless a cluster of storms
can develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Saturday, a warm front is shown to develop across southern
Nebraska, with easterly winds to the north of this front. HIghs
will be limited to around 80 across north central Nebraska to
the upper 80s to lower 90s southwest, in closer proximity to
the front. The easterly winds will also bring dewpoints into the
mid 60s to around 70 with an upslope flow into the panhandle an
Black Hills and a good chance for scattered thunderstorms in
the afternoon across the west, and into the east into the
evening and overnight hours. The storms could be strong to
severe across the entire forecast area, as MUCAPEs reach
2500-3500 J/kg across the area, with effective shear of
35-40kt.

A warming trend Sunday through Tuesday as the upper ridge
builds across the south central U.S. Highs by Monday and Tuesday
to reach the mid 90s, with a few upper 90s possible. With humid
conditions, the heat index values may reach the upper 90s.
An upper trough crossing the Northern Plains Wednesday into
Thursday may bring a weak front into the area with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Thunderstorm chances will favor the
late afternoon and evening hours each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Low clouds will continue to erode this evening, with widespread
VFR expected into tonight across western and north central
Nebraska. By early Friday morning, low stratus will expand again
across portions of central and southwest Nebraska, with
widespread IFR/locally LIFR CIGs expected. Patchy fog is also
possible, leading to MVFR/IFR visibilities. This low stratus
will quickly erode, with VFR conditions then prevailing Friday
afternoon.

Winds remain southerly tonight and into Friday afternoon, at 10
to 20kts. By late Friday afternoon, a frontal boundary will
begin to push into the Sandhills, with a wind shift from south
to north with its passage.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Brown