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FXUS63 KLBF 172031
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
331 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms is expected both
today and Monday with damaging winds and large hail being the main
threats.

- Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday with highs
rising into the 90s before dropping into the 80s for the end of the
week.

- Rain and thunderstorms return Friday and Saturday evenings, but
the severe risk is uncertain.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Lingering showers and storms across northern Nebraska will
continue to push into northeast Nebraska over the next few
hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return once
again by late afternoon and into the evening across north
central Nebraska and into the Sandhills. An area of higher
instability (CAPE values greater than 3000 J/kg, steep low level
lapse rates, and an area of shear around 30 knots) will be
present across much this region by evening which will provide
enough support for widely scattered severe storms by late
afternoon. Convection is anticipated to start between 22Z and
00Z across northern Nebraska before tracking east/southeast into
the evening hours. Greatest threats with these storms will be
large hail initially in discrete supercells before storms become
more linear in nature and damaging winds become the main
threat. Thunderstorms may persist into the overnight hours as
the low level jet intensifies after sunset, although the severe
threat should great diminish after Midnight CT.

Another round of severe thunderstorms returns on Monday afternoon
and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate earlier than
Sunday, with some organized convection by mid afternoon across the
northern Sandhills. With these storms expected to be supercellular
in nature, current hazards will be large hail and damaging winds.
There is some concerns on development locations as the latest CAMs
have initiation in different areas. However, with the greatest
instability across areas mainly east of US-83, current expectations
is those areas have the greatest potential to see severe storms.
There is also some concerns on lingering showers overnight and cloud
cover into Monday morning impacting severe potential. Some models
have clouds lingering into the mid to late afternoon, but it is
likely we will get enough clearing early enough that it won`t
greatly inhibit convection potential. Instability quickly wanes by
mid to late evening helping to end any severe storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Upper level ridging will begin to build across the western US by
Tuesday. This will bring a return to quieter and drier weather
through the middle of the week as surface high pressure builds into
the central Plains. In addition to drier weather, this ridge will
also keep above normal (upper 80s) temperatures across the region.
Expect highs to rise into the 90s across much of north central and
western Nebraska through Thursday.

Near daily thunderstorms return Friday night and into the weekend.
At this time, confidence in locations of impact and timing is low
and therefore, the severe potential is uncertain at this time, but a
stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out completely with small hail
and strong wind gusts being the main threats.

In addition to rain chances by the end of the week, cooler air will
also return. Plenty of clouds and potentially isolated rain showers
or thunderstorms during the day will drop high temperatures back
into the 80s for Friday and into the upper 70s to low 80s for the
weekend. Low temperatures will also drop into the mid to upper 50s
by the weekend which near normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

After generally quiet weather through this afternoon, isolated
to widely scattered convection will develop early this evening,
mainly near the NE/SD border. Have introduced a PROB30 group for
TSRA and variable/gusty winds to VTN for the 00-06z window.
Quiet weather will return thereafter. Cloud bases will remain
elevated, mainly high cirrus, but some SCT-BKN bases around
9-11kft are forecast with thunderstorm activity around VTN.

Winds will be steady from the S-SE this afternoon around 4-8 kts
at LBF, becoming light and variable overnight, then become
easterly after 16z Monday. Winds at VTN will mainly be variable
around 4-6 kts, with periods of E-NE winds overnight and again
after 15z Monday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Snyder