537
FXUS63 KLBF 171123
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
623 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring the threat for light rain showers to
  northern Nebraska Saturday.

- Widespread frost/freezing temperatures are looking more likely for
  Sunday morning.

- Temperatures will be seasonal Sunday thorugh Thursday with highs
  mainly in the 60s and dry conditions expected.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

H5 analysis tonight had a broad ridge of high pressure which
extended from the lower Ohio Valley north into the Arrowhead of
Minnesota. East of this ridge, closed low pressure was located
approximately 300 miles east-southeast of Cape Cod. West of the
ridge, closed low pressure was located over northeastern Wyoming
and southeastern Montana. A trough of low pressure extended
southwest of this feature into southern Nevada. Overnight, based
on satellite imagery, this H5 low had lifted into portions of
west central North Dakota. Upstream of this feature, a decent
shortwave trough was located over northwestern Alberta. At the
surface tonight, a cold front extended from near Yankton SD,
south southwest into south central Nebraska, just to the east of
Grand Island. Behind the front a broken line of showers was
present over northeastern portions of the forecast area.
Coverage of this line of showers, continues to decrease in areal
coverage over the past couple of hours. Skies were clear over
the western half of the forecast area, while locations east of a
line from North Platte to Ainsworth were cloudy. Temperatures
as of 2 AM CDT ranged from 44 degrees at Gordon, to 57 degrees
at O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Over the next 36 hours, the main forecast challenge will be
precipitation chances Saturday in association with a cold front
and mid level disturbance. For today, the upper level low will
migrate quickly into western Ontario. Behind this exiting
system, skies will quickly clear in the eastern forecast area
toward sunrise this morning. With mostly clear skies, westerly
winds and drier air in place, afternoon highs will reach into
the upper 60s to near 70. An upper level disturbance will drop
southeast from Montana into the Dakotas overnight. As this
disturbance approaches the Dakotas Saturday morning, mid level
frontogenesis will increase over South Dakota into northern
Nebraska leading to light precipitation. Precipitation chances
will increase Saturday morning with the NBM probabilities
indicating at least a 70% chance for measurable precipitation
over north central Nebraska. Probabilities for greater than
0.05" decrease significantly with probabilities only around 50%
across far northern Nebraska. That being said, will limit pops
Saturday to low end chances over northern portions of the
forecast area. In addition to the threat for light rain showers,
a decent cold front will be driven south through the forecast
area Saturday. Strong northerly winds (gusts up to 45 MPH) will
accompany passage of the front and afternoon highs Saturday will
struggle to get out of 50s. Finally, with respect to lows
tonight: The latest statistical guidance came in cooler and
trended lows more toward this guidance. This resulted in a 2 to
4 degree reduction in min temps for Saturday morning. Troughs
behind this trend in the forecast are two fold. First, am
expecting light westerly winds with dry air in place at least
through the early overnight hours. Second, cloud cover is not
expected to approach the NW forecast area until after 09z
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

The upper level trough will transition east into the upper
Mississippi Valley Saturday night. Behind the exiting trough,
very dry air will push into the region. Surface high pressure
will transition south across the high plains, ending up in
eastern Colorado by 12z Sunday morning. The combination of clear
skies, light winds and dry air, will lead to rapid cooling
Saturday evening. The latest NBM tonight came in with sub
freezing temps across most of the forecast area. The exception
is over the far northeastern forecast area where lows are around
35 degrees. Looking at the latest MET, MAV and ECS statistical
guidance, the lows depicted in the NBM may not be cool enough.
If this trend in the statistical guidance continues, lows will
need to be decreased further in subsequent forecast packages.
Currently there is decent forecast confidence in widespread or
areas of frost Sunday morning. Since this will be the first
episode of frost/freezing temps this fall, will eventually need
to highlight the threat with either frost advisories or freeze
warnings. Since we are 48 hours out and temps could trend
cooler, will forgo headlines with this package and continue to
hit the threat in the HWO and on social media. After a cool
start Sunday morning, highs will reach into the upper 60s and
lower 70s. On Sunday night, a northern stream trough of low
pressure aloft, will force a cold front through the area. Gusty
winds will develop behind the cold front Monday with some gusts
approaching 30 to 40 MPH in some areas. The combination of the
gusty winds and dry air, will lead to elevated fire weather
conditions Monday afternoon across the area. Beyond Monday, low
amplitude flow aloft will persist next week with seasonal highs
in the 60s and mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Expect mostly clear skies today at both the KLBF and KVTN
terminal. High clouds will begin to increase this evening at the
KVTN terminal with ceilings becoming overcast at 20000 AGL after
09z Saturday. Winds will be westerly at around 10 KTS at both
terminals over the next 24 hours. Some higher gusts are possible
at the KVTN terminal this afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler