708
FXUS63 KLBF 261117
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
617 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather exists for
  areas along and west of HWY 83 this afternoon and evening. The
  greatest threat will be damaging winds.

- The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will
  lead to dangerous heat indices both Sunday and Monday
  afternoon. An Extreme Heat Watch is in effect for portions of
  north central Nebraska, where confidence is highest in heat
  index values in excess of 105F.

- An approaching cold front will bring a threat for
  thunderstorms into early and middle next week, along with much
  cooler highs in the 70s to 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Currently, patchy fog is overspreading portions of central Nebraska,
and is expected to persist through sunrise. Locally dense fog will
be possible, especially east of Highway 83 this morning. This fog
is expected to quickly erode by late morning.

By this afternoon, a surface trough will be positioned across the
Panhandle, with increasing southeasterly flow ahead of this boundary
across the Sandhills. Aloft, a shortwave will cross the Rockies,
emerging across the northern Plains by this evening. As surface
convergence increases, scattered thunderstorm development is
expected along the surface trough this afternoon. Flow aloft will
remain meager across the area today, with H5 flow only on the order
of 10-15kts. This will keep deep layer shear weak, and should
largely limit storm organization today. Still, some instances of
damaging winds will be possible along and west of HWY 83, as storms
trek from west to east through a well mixed environment.

Temperatures will also be much warmer today, as increasing warm
advection pushes H7-H85 temperatures towards the 90th percentile
climo. This will push highs back into the 90s, and with increased
humidity will lead to heat index values in the upper 90s. This
warming trend continues into Sunday, as H7-H85 temperatures rise
even further, and exceed the 90th percentile Sunday afternoon. Highs
Sunday look to climb into the upper 90s to low 100s, and will again
lead to dangerously hot and humid conditions. With this in mind, an
Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for portions of north central
Nebraska, where humidity is highest. This is where confidence in
heat index values in excess of 105 is highest. Heat index values
exceeding 100 are possible much further west, and additional heat
headlines may be needed for Sunday afternoon for much of western and
north central Nebraska. Some relief is possible Sunday night, as
overnight lows fall into the middle/upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Another dangerously hot day is on tap for Monday, as temperatures in
the upper 90s to low 100s again combine with increased humidity
across the area. The Extreme Heat Watch remains in place for Monday
in the same area as Sunday, where again heat index values in excess
of 105 are possible. By late Monday afternoon, an approaching cold
front from the north could lead to scattered thunderstorm
development across portions of northern Nebraska. A few of these
storms could be strong to severe, with very robust instability and
at least modest deep layer shear in place. This threat will need to
be monitored.

The aforementioned cold front will begin to push through the
area on Tuesday, bringing relief from the hot and humid
conditions of the previous few days. In fact, temperatures will
struggle to climb out of the 70s by Thursday and Friday across
the area. This will also bring a return of near daily
thunderstorm threats, with at least some threat for strong to
severe storms as well. This could be especially true by late
week, as upper ridging begins to retrograde westward into the
southwestern US. This establishes increasing northwesterly flow
aloft across the Plains, and pattern recognition suggests this
could bring a return of severe weather to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Low stratus and fog will persist into late morning along and
east of HWY 83, with IFR/locally LIFR CIGs and visibilities
continuing. By late morning, this low stratus will gradually
erode, with VFR returning to all area terminals this afternoon
and persisting through tomorrow morning.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the Sandhills this
afternoon and evening, with a threat for brief MVFR visibilities
and gusty, erratic winds. Winds remain southerly today and
tonight, with gusts of 20 to 25kts possible this afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for NEZ007-010-028-029.
Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for NEZ007-010-028-029.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ059-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown