676
FXUS63 KLBF 052300
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
600 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
  across eastern portions of the region. Large hail and gusty
  winds are possible, if storms are able to form.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are
  possible this weekend, especially across the eastern Panhandle
  and western Sandhills. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect
  Saturday afternoon.

- Hot temperatures are expected by the middle of next week,
  bringing potential for a brief heat wave. Highs in the 90s are
  expected, with highs in the lower 100s possible Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

- Along with hot temperatures next week, breezy conditions and
  low humidity may create near daily fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A cold front tracks across western Nebraska this afternoon, which is
expected to be the forcing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms
across portions of s southwest and central Nebraska this evening and
into the overnight hours. Already, dewpoints are in the mid 50s
across most of the region, especially east of Highway 83 as of 1 PM
CDT. Dewpoints should continue to climb, given moisture advection
from the south, bringing dewpoints in the 60s across eastern
portions of the forecast region and into central Nebraska. CAM
guidance continues to struggle with the location of convective
initiation later this evening, but generally shows a greater
consensus southeast of the forecast region. However, there is some
suggestion of some backbuilding cells that may clip eastern portions
of the forecast region, mainly along and east of an O`Neill to
Broken Bow to Curtis line. CAPE values between 1,500-2,500 J/kg are
expected across this region, with somewhat marginal deep layer
shear, generally less than 30 knots. This may allow for some
stronger updrafts to develop, though storms may struggle to become
more organized. The more intense storms would bring a risk for large
hail and potentially strong to severe wind gusts. With this risk
still remaining somewhat conditional, SPC has maintained the
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for eastern portions of the county
warning area, with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) still clipping
portions of southeast Custer County (which may be closer to where
storms initiate). Still believe chances for thunderstorms remains
low tonight, generally less than a 20 percent chance, and this is
reflected with current PoPs. However, should a storm be able to for
across eastern portions of the region, it could briefly become
strong to severe.

Storm chances remain relatively low after midnight, and mostly
expect a quiet forecast during the overnight hours. Given the ample
humidity and fairly light winds, may see some patchy fog develop
across southwest into central Nebraska tonight, especially in lower
lying areas and river valleys. Confidence is somewhat lower, given
the patchy nature. However, if fog were to develop overnight, best
timing is likely around sunrise lasting a few hours past sunrise.

Tomorrow, an upper level trough is expected across the Pacific
Northwest, intensifying a low pressure system across southeast
Montana. Upper level ridging is expected across western Nebraska,
ahead of the main system. The intensifying low will support
strengthening winds throughout the morning and afternoon, as well as
support warm air advection across the region. This surge of warmer
temperatures will help bring highs into the 90s across most of the
region, with warmest highs expected across southwest and western
Nebraska, with highs in the mid to upper 90s possible. With this
surge of warmer air, expecting somewhat drier air to also build
across western portions of the region, with afternoon humidity
dropping at or below 20 percent along and west of Highway 61. Very
gusty winds will be expected across western Nebraska tomorrow
afternoon, with sustained southeast winds around 20 to 30 mph and
gusts up to 40 mph. Although humidity values are expected to remain
just above traditional critical fire weather thresholds, given that
temperatures are expected to be around 10 to 20 degrees above
average with very gusty winds, have opted to issue a Fire Weather
Watch for the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills. Will continue
to keep a close eye on the forecast trends over the next few hours,
to determine whether an upgrade will be needed. Winds are expected
to remain somewhat gusty out of the south during the overnight
hours, with gusts up to 25 mph out of the south. Humidity is
expected to recover around 60 to 70 percent, with overnight lows
remaining in the 60s. Given this set up, may also need to consider
an extension in time with later forecasts, but again, will keep an
eye on the shorter term forecast trends over the next several hours
until confidence increases one way or the other for additional
headlines.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

As the trough lifts to the northeast on Sunday, slightly stronger
ridging is expected across western Nebraska. This will provide a
similar set up, with highs in the upper 80s to 90s across most of
the region, with warmest highs expected across southwest and western
Nebraska. Again, this may set up a narrow corridor of lower humidity
across the eastern Panhandle with gusty southerly winds. This may
bring another round of near critical to critical fire weather
concerns across western Nebraska. At this time, will hold off on any
headlines for Sunday. However, if the forecast remains on track,
there may be a need for additional fire weather headlines Sunday
afternoon, especially across the eastern Panhandle.

As an upper level shortwave tracks near the region Sunday night into
Monday morning, there may be sufficient forcing from a nearby low to
bring additional showers and thunderstorms. Based on latest
guidance, would not expect this to be a real "soaker" of an event,
but rather sporadic showers and thunderstorms bringing a quick shot
of rain across portions of the region. As the cold front pushes
through, this will keep temperatures slightly "cooler" on Monday,
though highs are still expected to push into the mid to upper 80s.

By Tuesday, upper level ridging continues, with a push of anomalous
850 mb temperatures across the region. This is expected to push our
high temperatures into at least the 90s, though some guidance
suggests lower 100s may be possible across portions of the region.
This pattern is expected to bring a brief heat wave through at least
Wednesday, with hot temperatures across the region. As of now,
current forecast highs sit above the 90th percentile compared to
local climatology, potentially challenging record highs. However,
there is still some uncertainty in how hot things will get, as there
is some question on the location of an upper level trough. If the
trough can track in slightly sooner, then we may cool off slightly
quicker, but still expected to push well into the 90s. If the
pattern is slightly slower, then these hot temperatures may last
into Thursday (which is when uncertainty is highest at this time).
Regardless, expect hot daily temperatures, with little chances for
precipitation.

In addition to the heat, the other major concern for next week will
be a potential return of more widespread fire weather conditions.
Guidance continues to suggest breezy conditions next week, which
combined with the anomalous heat may dry out some of the recent
moisture. Lower relative humidity values are also expected with the
heat, so could see near daily fire weather concerns given this set
up. However, as with temperatures, there is some question on how
long these conditions last, given some question in the progression
of the upper level pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Expect mainly clear skies overnight across western and north
central Nebraska. There is a threat for low cloudiness to
develop across far southwestern Nebraska late tonight. ATTM,
this area of low cloudiness is expected to remain south of the
KLBF terminal. If it were to materialize, ceilings around 1000
FT AGL are possible. The greatest threat for stratus development
is between 09 and 14z Saturday. Elsewhere, skies will be mainly
clear over the next 24 hours. Winds will be fairly light
overnight from the east and southeast at under 10 KTS. Winds
will then become southeasterly at 15 to 25 KTS by Saturday
afternoon. Some higher gusts approaching 30 KTS are possible as
well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
this weekend, especially across the eastern Panhandle and
western Sandhills. Highs this weekend across southwest and
western Nebraska are expected to climb around 10 to 20 degrees
above average, with gusty winds both days. Saturday, winds
gusting up to 40 mph out of the southeast are expected, with
humidity values less than 20 percent along and west of Highway
61. Though humidity values remain just above traditional
critical fire weather criteria, given the strong winds and high
temperatures, have opted to issue a Fire Weather Watch.

As for Sunday, winds become more southerly, but still expect
sustained southerly winds of 20 to 25 mph gusting to 40 mph
across the western Sandhills and eastern Panhandle. This may
create additional near critical to critical fire weather
concerns, but will hold off on headlines for now. If the
forecast remains on track, additional fire weather headlines may
be needed for Sunday.

Next week, hot temperatures are expected at least Tuesday and
Wednesday, with highs in the 90s expected, and highs in the
lower 100s possible. Breezy conditions are also expected, which
may quickly deplete any recent moisture. Along with the heat,
low humidity is expected. This combination may lead to near
daily fire weather concerns next week.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Buttler
FIRE WEATHER...Richie