


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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110 FXUS63 KLBF 192321 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 621 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday with highs rising into the 90s before dropping into the 80s for the end of the week. - Rain and thunderstorms return Thursday night and into early next week, but the severe risk is uncertain. - Much cooler temperatures return for the weekend and into early next week with highs dropping into the low to mid 70s by Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Upper level ridging along with surface high pressure will remain in place across the western US through Thursday. This will bring a return to quieter and drier weather into the central Plains. The exception will be late this afternoon and evening where the latest CAMs suggest some isolated shower activity to develop across portions of north central Nebraska. Any showers or storms that develop are expected to be weakly forced, however with some marginal instability across the eastern half of Nebraska, a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out. Regardless, confidence in development is very low and therefore did not feel comfortable putting in anything more than a 20 pop at this time into the forecast. With storms mainly diurnally driven, they are expected to dissipate quickly as the sun begins to set by mid evening and daytime heating comes to an end. In addition to drier weather, this ridge will also allow for warm air advection into the region. With 850mb temperatures in the 26 to 30 C range, surface temperatures will easily remain above normal (upper 80s) through Thursday. Expect highs to rise into the 90s across much of north central and western Nebraska through Thursday before a change in pattern brings cooler temperatures and more active weather. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Near daily thunderstorms return Thursday night and into the beginning of next week. For Thursday night, a thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front being dragged across Nebraska. While there`s still some uncertainty in development location, timing appears to be mainly after 6pm CT. Sufficient instability will be focused along the front as well which will provide a favorable environment for severe storms. For now, SPC has a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk just to the north of Nebraska across South Dakota, but I would not be surprised to see the risk shifted to the south into our area in the upcoming days. Beyond Thursday night, confidence remains low in severe potential. However, a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out completely with small hail and strong wind gusts being the main threats. This frontal boundary will also usher in a cooler airmass into the Great Plains beginning on Friday and lasting through at least the first part of next week. This cooler airmass combined with plenty of clouds and potentially isolated rain showers or thunderstorms during the day will drop high temperatures back into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Highs will steadily drop into the low to mid 70s by Monday and Tuesday. A similar pattern is expected with low temperatures dropping from the low to mid 60s on Thursday night to the low 50s on Monday night. Both the lows and high temperatures by next week will be nearly 10 degrees below normals (normal high: upper 80; normal low: low 60). Looking ahead to the rest of next week, temperatures may slowly rise back into the low 80s, but still remain below normals. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Through 02z this evening, there will be a threat for scattered high clouds INVOF the KLBF terminal. Cloudiness should dissipate around sunset this evening. Otherwise, expect clear skies over the next 24 hours with light and variable winds tonight and light southerly winds at under 10 KTS on Wednesday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Buttler