Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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110
FXUS63 KLBF 192321
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
621 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday with highs
rising into the 90s before dropping into the 80s for the end of the
week.

- Rain and thunderstorms return Thursday night and into early next
week, but the severe risk is uncertain.

- Much cooler temperatures return for the weekend and into early
next week with highs dropping into the low to mid 70s by Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Upper level ridging along with surface high pressure will remain in
place across the western US through Thursday. This will bring a
return to quieter and drier weather into the central Plains. The
exception will be late this afternoon and evening where the latest
CAMs suggest some isolated shower activity to develop across
portions of north central Nebraska. Any showers or storms that
develop are expected to be weakly forced, however with some marginal
instability across the eastern half of Nebraska, a stronger storm or
two cannot be ruled out. Regardless, confidence in development is
very low and therefore did not feel comfortable putting in anything
more than a 20 pop at this time into the forecast. With storms
mainly diurnally driven, they are expected to dissipate quickly as
the sun begins to set by mid evening and daytime heating comes to an
end.

In addition to drier weather, this ridge will also allow for warm
air advection into the region. With 850mb temperatures in the 26 to
30 C range, surface temperatures will easily remain above normal
(upper 80s) through Thursday. Expect highs to rise into the 90s
across much of north central and western Nebraska through Thursday
before a change in pattern brings cooler temperatures and more
active weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Near daily thunderstorms return Thursday night and into the
beginning of next week. For Thursday night, a thunderstorms are
expected to develop along a cold front being dragged across
Nebraska. While there`s still some uncertainty in development
location, timing appears to be mainly after 6pm CT. Sufficient
instability will be focused along the front as well which will
provide a favorable environment for severe storms. For now, SPC has
a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk just to the north of Nebraska across
South Dakota, but I would not be surprised to see the risk shifted
to the south into our area in the upcoming days. Beyond Thursday
night, confidence remains low in severe potential. However, a
stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out completely with small hail
and strong wind gusts being the main threats.

This frontal boundary will also usher in a cooler airmass into the
Great Plains beginning on Friday and lasting through at least the
first part of next week. This cooler airmass combined with plenty of
clouds and potentially isolated rain showers or thunderstorms during
the day will drop high temperatures back into the upper 70s to mid
80s. Highs will steadily drop into the low to mid 70s by Monday and
Tuesday. A similar pattern is expected with low temperatures
dropping from the low to mid 60s on Thursday night to the low 50s on
Monday night. Both the lows and high temperatures by next week will
be nearly 10 degrees below normals (normal high: upper 80; normal
low: low 60). Looking ahead to the rest of next week, temperatures
may slowly rise back into the low 80s, but still remain below
normals.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Through 02z this evening, there will be a threat for scattered
high clouds INVOF the KLBF terminal. Cloudiness should
dissipate around sunset this evening. Otherwise, expect clear
skies over the next 24 hours with light and variable winds
tonight and light southerly winds at under 10 KTS on Wednesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Buttler