958
FXUS63 KLBF 032320
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
620 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near surface smoke lingers across north central Nebraska this
  evening and overnight. Another round of fog is possible
  overnight, especially across the Sandhills into north central
  and south central Nebraska.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
  Thursday afternoon across the Panhandle and western Sandhills,
  as northwesterly winds gust to around 35 mph. Additional
  wildfire smoke is expected across western Nebraska.

- Behind the cold front, a cool, dry pattern sets up this
  weekend. Temperatures return to near seasonal early next week
  through mid week, with little to no precipitation expected.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

An upper level low is observed over northern Minnesota and Wisconsin
today, bringing a broad upper level trough across the eastern United
States. This pattern brings strong northwesterly flow aloft across
the northern Plains into western and north central Nebraska. At the
surface, a cold front tracks along Interstate 80, bringing
cooler temperatures in its wake across portions of north central
Nebraska. With the strong northwesterly flow aloft, areas of
smoke track from wildfires in western Canada across the Dakotas
into north central and eastern Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Tonight, skies remain somewhat cloudy behind the cold front, with
areas of near surface smoke from Canadian wildfires across
portions of north central Nebraska. Those sensitive to smoke may
want to take precautions tonight, as smoke lingers through the
morning. Winds remain quite calm at the surface as an inversion
develops overnight. Plenty of low level moisture and light
winds will allow for the development of fog overnight, across
the Sandhills, as well as portions of south central and north
central Nebraska. Fog is expected to last into the early morning
hours, which may make for a somewhat foggy commute in the
morning.

On Thursday, an upper level shortwave tracks through the existing
northwesterly flow aloft, which tracks another low pressure system
across the Dakotas. This will bring a north-south oriented warm
front across western Nebraska in the morning, with a more east-west
oriented cold front sweeping in during the afternoon. Winds take a
subtle shift from westerly to northwesterly, but given the proximity
of the low, winds will become quite gusty in the afternoon to early
evening, with gusts up to 35 mph at times. The warm front will also
allow for some warmer conditions, with highs in the mid to upper 80s
across the Panhandle and western Sandhills. With the warmer
temperatures tomorrow afternoon, afternoon humidity values drop into
the 20 to 30 percent range. With the warmer temperatures, lower
humidity, and gusty winds in place, elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions are possible across the Panhandle and western
Sandhills, into portions of north central Nebraska, tomorrow
afternoon into the early evening. Additionally, with the
northwesterly flow remaining tomorrow, another round of smoke from
wildfires across western Canada is expected across the region
tomorrow, with the greatest potential for surface smoke across
western Nebraska and the Sandhills into southwestern Nebraska.

Behind the cold front, temperatures begin to drop throughout the
evening and overnight hours, with lows dropping to the low 50s
across southwest Nebraska and possibly dropping into the low 40s
across portions of northwestern Nebraska. As the front tracks south,
there is a slight chance of showers across southwestern Nebraska
overnight Thursday, however, chances of precipitation generally
remain around 20 percent. The front is also expected to move the
second round of smoke out of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A cooler and drier pattern settles in this weekend as a
Canadian high pressure system settles over the northern Plains.
Behind the cold front, temperatures remain on the cooler side
Friday afternoon, with highs only reaching into the 60s across
the region, making Friday the coolest day of the upcoming week.
Highs remain in the upper 60s to low 70s on Saturday. Sunday
afternoon, the upper level trough is expected to finally begin
tracking east, which brings height rises across the region, with
a ridge setting up early week. Highs begin to creep up on
Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s, with some locations
breaking into the low 80s. Highs then return to a more seasonal
range early to mid week, with highs in the low to mid 80s. For
reference, this week (September 3 through September 10) is when
we start seeing our average high decrease from around 84 to 82
at North Platte, and 85 to 83 at Valentine. As upper level
ridging returns early to mid week, precipitation chances are
expected to remain low through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Wildfire smoke will continue to lead to low-end VFR visibilities
across northern Nebraska this evening and tonight. Additional
smoke may impact western and southwest Nebraska terminals
tomorrow afternoon.

By tonight, low stratus will expand across southwest Nebraska
and into the Sandhills, with MVFR/IFR CIGs expected. Patchy fog
development is also possible early tomorrow morning. A gradual
improvement back to VFR is expected for all area terminals by
early tomorrow afternoon.

Winds become light and variable tonight, generally 5kts or less.
Northwest winds then strengthen tomorrow afternoon, with
widespread gusts of 25 to 35kts along and north of I-80.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Brown