797
FXUS63 KLBF 242354
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
554 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will spread into northwest Nebraska this evening,
  tapering off through midnight. Little to no accumulation is
  anticipated.

- A colder airmass settles into the central US by the middle to
  end of Thanksgiving week bringing a threat for wintry
  precipitation Wednesday. However, any snow accumulations look
  to be light at this time, from a dusting up to a half inch.

- Dry and turning colder for Thanksgiving Day into the holiday
  weekend with highs in the 20s and 30s and lows in the single
  digits and teens.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed a trough of
low pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes. Just to the west
of this feature, upper-level ridging extended along the Mississippi
River Valley. An upper-level low pressure system was apparent over
southern Saskatchewan with a trough extending south-southwest along
the northern Rockies, approaching the northern Plains. The stubborn
upper-level low continues to spin off the coast of the Pacific
Northwest with an upper-level ridge building in just to the east
over the Intermountain West. All of these features combined has
resulted in southwesterly flow across western and north central
Nebraska. At the surface, the cold front that swept through the
local area this morning was continuing its southward trek across
Kansas with stout high pressure building in behind it. Northwest
winds have strengthened behind the front with 3 to 4mb/3 hour
pressure rises and cold air advection (CAA) increasing over the
local area. Recent area observations show widespread gusts of 20 mph
with peak gusts nearing 30 mph at VTN and BBW. Mid to high-level
clouds continue to move into the area with a stratus deck pushing
southward out of northern Nebraska into central Nebraska. Given the
cloud cover, temperatures have trended cooler across northern
Nebraska as compared to southwest Nebraska with 2 PM CT temperatures
ranging from 28 degrees at Gordon to 51 degrees at Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

A band of mid-level frontogenetical forcing over southeast Wyoming
into southwest South Dakota has tapped into increased moisture which
has resulted in the development of light snow/flurries this
afternoon. Forcing will gradually push east into the local area this
evening and tonight as the upper-level shortwave trough axis bisects
the northern Plains by 06Z Monday. This will allow for the light
snow/flurries to shift into northwest and north Nebraska this
evening, tapering off through midnight tonight. Although little
to no accumulation is expected, roads may be slippery at times
where snow has fallen. Breezy winds will persist overnight with
gusts of 25 to 30 mph as pressure rises and strong CAA continues
across the region. Our first of a series of cold air intrusions
expected through the week will certainly be felt tonight as
temperatures fall into the teens. These temperatures combined
with the breezy winds will result in brisk single digit wind
chills for Monday morning. If you don`t get your winter coat out
of storage for Monday morning, the opportunity will present
itself later this Thanksgiving week. Temperatures will struggle
to get out of the low 30s to low 40s on Monday, however,
southerly return flow will allow temperatures to rebound into
mid to upper-40s on Tuesday. Surface high pressure over the
region will allow for dry conditions to return Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

The main focus in the long term revolves around the next system
ejecting out of the Rockies mid-week, potentially impacting
Thanksgiving holiday travel across the region. As a heavily
tilted upper-level trough extending from the northern Rockies
into northern California advances eastward into the Plains
through Wednesday, a lee-cyclone will develop across southeast
Colorado driven by mid-level height falls and upper-level
divergence. The main surface low will track southeast into the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, remaining well south of the area.
Despite this, a cold frontal passage will bring increased mid-level
forcing, resulting in a threat for light snow across western
and north central Nebraska. Although discrepancies exist
amongst deterministic guidance, 50% or more of the GFS and ECMWF
ensemble members highlight the potential for light snow,
accumulations of a dusting to 1". This fast moving system will
likely limit any significant snowfall accumulations across our
area, however, guidance continues to highlight greater winter
weather impacts further south and west in Colorado. Thanksgiving
travelers should continue to stay up to date on the latest
forecast and be prepared to make adjustments to your plans if
needed, especially those who may be headed to Colorado.

Dry and cold conditions settle in for Thanksgiving Day,
continuing into the holiday weekend as northwest flow aloft
increases. Temperatures will fall into the 10 to 15 degrees
below normal range during this period. Highs will struggle to
get out of the 20s and 30s with lows falling into the single
digits to teens each day through the weekend. This is caused by
a ridge developing over Alaska and northern Pacific, favoring
surface high pressure to build southward into the central CONUS
by late next weekend, continuing into the 7 o 10 day range.
Fortunately this cold snap doesn`t appear to stick around for
long as ensemble guidance suggests an upper-level ridge will
slide into the western CONUS allowing temperatures to climb back
into seasonal values (low 30s) for the start of December,
perhaps even above normal for western portions of the state.
This is highlighted by the 8-14 Day CPC Temperature Outlook
favoring above normal to near normal temperatures across western
and north central Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 554 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

There will be a threat for MVFR ceilings, mainly this evening at
both the KLBF and KVTN terminals. Look for ceilings to improve
by late evening, then scatter out overnight. Skies will be
mainly clear on Monday with only a few to scattered clouds
possible above 20000 FT AGL. Northerly winds will be gusty this
evening with speeds around 20 to 25 KTS, diminishing to 10 to 15
KTS Monday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Viken
SHORT TERM...Viken
LONG TERM...Viken
AVIATION...Buttler