255
FXUS63 KLBF 092017
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
217 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall will taper this evening into tonight

- After today, mild and dry through early next week

- Potential system Tues/Wed. at this time strong winds are the
  main concern

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 209 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

As the Low continues to progress northeastward into the
Great Lakes region, wrap around precipitation will continue to move
eastward as well. Should see an end to the precipitation by late
afternoon and evening for areas of western and southwest Nebraska.
Most models have been in good agreement of a slower moving
progression of the Low off to the northeast and have trended
towards lingering spotty rainfall continuing to wrap around the
Low through tonight for areas of north central Nebraska, thus
have added pops into the forecast through 1am for areas of north
central Nebraska. As the Low continues to proceed northeast
that precipitation will move east as well and should see an end
of rainfall for all locations an hour or two after midnight.

Low level moisture and light winds may lead to some patchy lingering
fog in areas across western Nebraska and the northern Sandhills this
afternoon and evening. Confidence is low in any widespread fog
development this afternoon and evening.

For Sunday, upper level ridging spreads in from the west and there
will be WAA helping temperatures to bounce back into the upper 50s
to low 60s after a cool Saturday. Warmest temperatures will be
across southwest Nebraska. This will lead to highs around 10 degrees
above normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

The main concern in the long term will be with the system
moving into the central CONUS Tuesday/Wednesday. The upper level
trof has started to deepen and shift a little farther south with the
last few forecast runs. There have been discrepancies between
the models and the EC tends to bring the sfc low farther south,
with precipitation developing just to the east of the forecast
area. While the GFS deepens the sfc low but keeps it further to
the north and is a little bit more moisture starved and keeps
what little moisture there is northward into the Dakotas, until
it moves well eastward. However, confidence is increasing in a
potential for stronger sfc winds across the forecast area on
Tuesday into Wednesday. This is supported from bufkit soundings
along with NBM probabilities that suggest the greatest
potential to see wind gust over 30 mph will be across the
northern Sandhills into north central Nebraska where
probabilities of 70 percent or more exist, leading to the higher
confidence. Will have to continue to monitor this system with
future model runs, to see what additional impacts with the
strong winds can be expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Widespread low clouds and mist will allow MVFR to LIFR criteria
to prevail for much of the upcoming forecast period.

The center of the upper-level low is tracking directly overhead
as of midday Saturday. This has introduced some breaks in the
clouds for portions of central Nebraska. For now, believe these
will remain just southeast of LBF. Elsewhere, more widespread
mist is hampering terminals stretching from GRN to VTN to ANW to
ONL. Thinking is this will largely remain unchanged over the
next 6-8 hours before conditions improve slightly. Even so,
expecting degraded flight rules to continue through early Sunday
morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...NMJ