828
FXUS63 KLBF 070625
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE
125 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers and a few isolated non-severe thunderstorms
  possible (~20-40%) this evening through Wednesday evening,
  only expecting trace - 0.10" most areas. Just a drop in the
  bucket and not even close to the rain we really need.

- Most areas will be dry Thursday through Monday with a warming
  trend bringing everyone up into the 80s this weekend into
  early next week.

- Next chance for rain Monday night into Tuesday is rather low
  confidence at this point (20%).

 &&


.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

This Evening/Tonight...

The bulk of the appreciable rainfall will remain south and
southwest of our forecast area with mainly weakening showers
rotating northwest into southern portions of our forecast area.
We do have east/west surface boundary located north of I-80 and
up to around Thedford and Alliance where we are seeing a few
showers developing as of 315 PM. We have northerly winds north
of this boundary and generally easterly winds south of this
boundary along I-80. We could see at least a few isolated non-
severe thunderstorms along this boundary this evening, mainly
across western portions of this boundary in the Nebraska
panhandle. MLCAPE values are generally less than 500 J/KG and
effective 0-6km wind shear is less than 20 kts so if we do see
any showers turn into thunderstorms this evening, its unlikely
that any of them will be very strong and even more unlikely that
they would be severe.


Wednesday...

The upper level low will track east across Kansas and keep the
more significant rain bands well to our south across Kansas.
However, we will also continue to see a weak surface boundary
stretching from southwestern Nebraska into northeastern Nebraska
that could be a focusing mechanism for a few showers and
thunderstorms (20-40%) during the afternoon and early evening
hours, but dieing out after sunset. There will again be very
little in the way of instability with SBCAPE values generally
around or less than 500 J/KG. Therefore, once again we do not
expect any strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Thursday...
The upper level low will continue to slide east on Thursday
bringing an end to the small rainfall chances for most areas.
Increased high temperatures a bit over previous forecast given
higher NBM values and expectation for more sunshine as upper
system departs the area.

Friday through Monday...
An upper level ridge will develop over the area Friday into the
weekend and then an upper trough will gradually begin digging
into the western United States by early next week. Warming
temperatures are a given with the building ridge leading to
good confidence of highs in the 80s this weekend into early
next week.


Monday night through Tuesday...
Next chance for rain Monday night into Tuesday is rather low
confidence at this point as the upper trough will likely
initially remain too far to the west. Better chances for rain
will likely hold off until the next upper trough across the
western United States finally pushes east into the plains just
beyond the end of this forecast period (middle of next week).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 124 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

- For KLBF:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through at least the
vast majority of the period, despite plentiful cloud cover with
ceilings ranging mainly 5-15K ft. The majority of the period
will also likely be rain/thunderstorm-free. However,
particularly between 19-01Z there appears to be enough of a
chance for passing showers/weak thunderstorms that a PROB30
group is warranted. Should any of this convection pass overhead,
some enhanced gustiness and possibly small hail cannot be ruled
out. Wind-wise, a weak pressure gradient will keep speeds
light/somewhat variable direction early this morning, but a
steadier easterly breeze will kick in for much of the daytime
hours with sustained speeds 10-15KT/gusts around 20KT. Speeds
will again become light/variable late in the period Wednesday
evening.

- For KVTN:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through the period,
although there will be plentiful high cirrus and scattered
clouds as low as 7-10K ft. As for shower/weak thunderstorm
chances, have continued to omit any formal mention, as latest
high-res model guidance suggests that any afternoon-early
evening convection SHOULD focus at least 20-40 miles south (this
will obviously need monitored in later TAFs in case the axis
nudges slightly north. Winds are starting out this morning a
little breezy from the north-northeast (gusts up to around
20KT), and although speed will back off a little later this
morning, the afternoon will bring another round of sustained
speeds 10-15KT/gusts around 20KT as direction shifts a bit more
easterly. Very light speeds around 5KT or less then arrive late
in the period Wednesday evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Pfannkuch