822
FXUS63 KLBF 102029
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
329 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening
  and tonight across portions of southwest Nebraska. A few
  storms could be strong to severe with hail and damaging winds.


- Temperatures warm into middle and late week, with a return of
  widespread 90s by Wednesday and Thursday.

- A threat for thunderstorms returns for late week and into next
  weekend, as a frontal boundary approaches the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Currently, a surface cold front has pushed through the area, and is
positioned across portions of northwest Kansas. To the north of this
front, broad easterly upslope flow will prevail this evening across
southwest Nebraska. This, combined with an approaching shortwave
trough (currently positioned across the central Rockies), should
lead to shower and thunderstorm development this evening. The bulk
of this activity will occur near and south of I-80, in closer
proximity to the surface front and within the upslope flow regime.
Instability looks to remain somewhat meager (MLCAPE ~500-1000 J/kg),
though deep layer shear is supportive of a stronger storm or two.
Damaging winds and hail would be the main threats, along with
locally heavy rainfall amid slow storm motions. Storms linger into
the overnight hours, before slowly ending after sunrise Monday
morning as upslope flow weakens. Rainfall accumulations of 1-2"+
locally will be possible for areas south of I-80 and west of HWY 83
this evening and tonight.

An upper trough axis then clears the area into Monday afternoon,
before another quick moving shortwave drops into the Dakotas
immediately in its wake. This will push a weak frontal boundary into
the area, and could lead to a few isolated thunderstorms across
central Nebraska during the afternoon. These storms will be weak and
short-lived, with little to no instability and weak winds with
height expected to be in place. Any storms that do form will quickly
wane with the loss of diurnal heating. Highs tomorrow climb into the
lower 80s, with weak southerly flow returning by late evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Upper ridging then begins to establish across the southern CONUS,
with heights rising locally into midweek. Temperatures will moderate
in response, returning to the 90s by Wednesday for some and Thursday
for all. This could lead to increasing heat concerns into late week,
as temperatures climb into the middle to upper 90s. Some threat for
fire weather concerns could also return, especially considering much
drier and warmer conditions for early and middle week ahead of the
hottest temperatures. The upper ridge will slowly move eastward by
late week, with southwesterly flow returning aloft. A surface
front will approach the area Thursday into Friday, and bring a
returning threat for thunderstorms. The threat for severe
weather remains uncertain for now, though could be limited by
weaker flow aloft (H5 flow ~15-25kts).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow
afternoon across western and north central Nebraska. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight
across portions of southwest Nebraska, with a threat for brief
MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds. These storms may
linger across southwest Nebraska through sunrise Monday
morning, though should end by late morning.

Northerly winds slowly become easterly today, at around 10 to
15kts. Winds then become light and variable tonight, at 5kts or
less.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown