408
FXUS63 KLBF 150457
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1157 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms this
afternoon and evening with very large hail and strong winds being
the main threats although the risk of a tornado cannot be ruled out.

- Cooler temperatures arrive for the end of the week and into the
first half of the weekend.

- Rain showers and thunderstorms return on Saturday night lasting
through Tuesday with the risk of severe storms being low at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

An upper level trough  will continue to dig southward across the
Rockies allowing for a developing low pressure system to bring some
more active weather briefly to the region. A cold front is currently
draped across western Nebraska. This front has been the initiation
point for several showers and weak thunderstorms already this
afternoon. However, cloud cover has keep instability at bay so far,
but current satellite shows breaks occurring allowing for instability
to increase across the region. The latest analysis shows a steady
increase of CAPE values to near 2000 J/kg as well as steep low level
lapse rates across northern Nebraska and into the Sandhills. This
correlates well with where we`re currently seeing storm development.
However, as the boundary continues to cause initiation and
instability increases even more, we`ll expect some more organized
and stronger convection leading to severe storms. Threats remain
basically unchanged with very large hail (potentially greater than 2
inches) and strong winds (up to 65 mph) being the primary threats.
However, a tornado threat cannot be ruled out completely especially
with this first round of storms when storms are more discrete and
have better access to instability and moisture. At this time, the
greatest concern for the strongest storms will be between 4pm and
8pm.

Hi-res models continue to hint at a secondary round of storms aided
by a trough pushing off the Front Ranges of Colorado and Wyoming.
This secondary round will impact mainly southwest Nebraska, the I-80
corridor, and into portions of the southern Sandhills with strong
winds (potentially up to 75 mph or greater) being the main threat.
Despite inconsistency amongst models in this second round,
certainty remains moderate in this development. Current thinking is
that convection will move into the western fringes of the CWA by 8pm
CT and push eastward through Midnight. Winds are expected diminish
slightly as they move eastward, however, some stronger to briefly
severe storms may continue into the early hours of Thursday morning.

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into
Thursday morning and possibly even into the afternoon. Showers
should continue to dissipate from south to north, but areas in
northern Nebraska could continue to see some wrap-around
precipitation due to the strong cut-off low across the northern
Plains. Severe storms are not anticipated with the activity Thursday
into Thursday afternoon as the environment will remain well mixed
with little instability present to tap into.

In addition to storms, this cold front and low pressure system will
usher in a cooler airmass beginning on Thursday. Highs will only
rise into the low 60s to mid 70s on Thursday with the coldest
temperatures across northern Nebraska where rain showers and clouds
will continue through much of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Across northern Nebraska (north of US-20), showers will continue
through Friday, but as mentioned above, severe storms are not
expected. All precipitation finally comes to an end by Friday night
with a brief dry period for Saturday.

Active weather returns on Saturday night lasting through next
Tuesday as several rounds of disturbances impact the region. At this
time, the severe potential remains low, but some stronger storms may
still be possible especially in the late afternoon and early evening
when instability is highest. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for
the most up to date information.

Temperatures remain chilly on Friday, but will steadily rise to near
or slightly below normals (highs in low 70s, lows in mid 40s) into
the beginning of next week. Temperatures will drop once again into
the 60s across the CWA on Tuesday mainly due to ongoing rain and
overcast skies.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue over the next few hours before
slowly dissipating. Expect some light fog as well across the region
due to increased moisture from recent rainfall with visibility
restrictions only dropping to near 4 miles. Showers and stratus
linger a bit longer across the north as a low stalls across the
northern Plains and moisture continues to filter into the region.
Strong northwest winds also return on Thursday with gusts up to 30
to 40 knots.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik