Extended Streamflow Prediction
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Issued by NWS
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687
FGUS63 KKRF 111528
ESPKSR
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
********************************************************
**** THESE 90 DAY FORECASTS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ****
**** AND COMPARE TO TRADITIONAL ESP AND HISTORICAL ****
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP, HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR
FLOODSTAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ESP VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP
OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:CHAPMAN CR AT CHAPMAN KS 4NNW
CHPK1 19.0 26.0 37.0 | 11 23 37 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:LYON CR AT JUNCTION CITY KS 7S
JNCK1 21.0 35.0 39.0 | 16 21 34 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT JUNCTION CITY KS 4SSW
JUCK1 22.0 32.0 44.0 | 7 20 34 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:KANSAS R AT FT RILEY KS
FTRK1 21.0 26.0 33.0 | <5 7 21 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:WILDCAT CR AT MANHATTAN KS SCENIC DR
MWCK1 14.0 17.0 23.0 | 14 17 33 | 10 9 22 | <5 5 7
:KANSAS R AT MANHATTAN KS
MHKK1 18.0 26.0 42.0 | 6 14 27 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:KANSAS R AT WAMEGO KS NO.2
WMGK1 19.0 26.0 38.0 | <5 <5 11 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:VERMILLION CR AT WAMEGO KS 11NE
VCWK1 20.0 24.0 30.0 | 18 15 23 | 11 6 11 | <5 <5 <5
:ROCK CR AT LOUISVILLE KS
LISK1 27.0 33.0 43.0 | 5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:KANSAS R AT BELVUE KS 4SE
BVUK1 20.0 28.0 33.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:CROSS CR AT ROSSVILLE KS
RSSK1 25.0 29.0 31.0 | 12 9 10 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MILL CR AT PAXICO KS 1SW
PXCK1 21.0 31.0 33.0 | 24 39 46 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:KANSAS R AT TOPEKA KS
TPAK1 26.0 27.0 44.0 | 5 6 6 | 5 5 6 | <5 <5 <5
:SOLDIER CR AT DELIA KS 3E
DELK1 26.0 26.5 29.5 | 11 8 9 | 8 7 8 | <5 <5 <5
:SOLDIER CR AT TOPEKA KS 4NW
TOPK1 29.0 34.0 40.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:DELAWARE R AT MUSCOTAH KS 2S
MSCK1 27.0 28.0 36.0 | 33 39 40 | 23 29 36 | <5 <5 <5
:KANSAS R AT LECOMPTON KS 1NE
LCPK1 17.0 23.8 27.0 | 6 18 22 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:KANSAS R AT LAWRENCE KS HWY 40
LWRK1 18.0 20.0 29.0 | 6 16 21 | 5 6 6 | <5 <5 <5
:WAKARUSA R AT LAWRENCE KS 4S
LAWK1 23.0 25.0 45.0 | 9 11 13 | 8 7 8 | <5 <5 <5
:STRANGER CR AT EASTON KS
ESTK1 17.0 18.0 23.0 | 89 81 87 | 87 73 74 | 10 9 9
:STRANGER CR AT TONGANOXIE KS 4E
TNGK1 23.0 30.0 35.0 | 50 54 68 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:KANSAS R AT DESOTO KS 1N
DSOK1 26.0 33.0 36.0 | 5 5 6 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:KANSAS R AT KC KS TURNER BR
TNRK1 41.0 47.5 54.0 | 5 5 10 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:KANSAS R AT KC KS 23RD ST
KCKK1 33.0 54.0 55.0 | 8 21 33 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
ESP = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:CHAPMAN CR
CHPK1 4.2/ 4.3/ 5.6/ 15.2/ 13.9/ 19.4/ 20.9/
:LYON CR
JNCK1 5.7/ 6.0/ 7.6/ 17.8/ 15.7/ 26.3/ 30.5/
:SMOKY HILL R
JUCK1 3.2/ 3.9/ 5.5/ 14.9/ 13.4/ 19.6/ 23.2/
:KANSAS R
FTRK1 5.9/ 7.1/ 8.5/ 15.0/ 14.6/ 18.7/ 19.6/
:WILDCAT CR
MWCK1 2.5/ 2.5/ 3.2/ 8.8/ 7.4/ 17.3/ 18.6/
:KANSAS R
MHKK1 6.2/ 7.4/ 8.2/ 15.0/ 14.6/ 17.3/ 18.6/
WMGK1 4.2/ 5.8/ 7.2/ 13.2/ 12.2/ 14.5/ 15.4/
:VERMILLION CR
VCWK1 3.1/ 4.7/ 6.2/ 19.1/ 17.6/ 24.3/ 27.6/
:ROCK CR
LISK1 8.8/ 9.3/ 10.7/ 21.0/ 20.0/ 22.8/ 27.2/
:KANSAS R
BVUK1 6.3/ 8.2/ 9.2/ 14.7/ 14.2/ 16.1/ 17.7/
:CROSS CR
RSSK1 7.1/ 12.0/ 13.4/ 22.7/ 20.2/ 25.6/ 27.5/
:MILL CR
PXCK1 3.2/ 3.3/ 5.3/ 23.6/ 20.4/ 25.6/ 29.0/
:KANSAS R
TPAK1 6.6/ 9.4/ 10.1/ 18.5/ 18.1/ 21.7/ 26.1/
:SOLDIER CR
DELK1 6.1/ 7.5/ 10.0/ 23.5/ 22.7/ 26.2/ 26.9/
TOPK1 0.5/ 3.2/ 7.0/ 15.5/ 14.7/ 21.6/ 22.6/
:DELAWARE R
MSCK1 3.3/ 13.3/ 17.1/ 28.3/ 27.6/ 28.6/ 30.7/
:KANSAS R
LCPK1 4.0/ 7.3/ 8.9/ 15.2/ 14.4/ 16.3/ 19.8/
LWRK1 8.6/ 10.6/ 12.1/ 16.6/ 15.9/ 17.2/ 20.6/
:WAKARUSA R
LAWK1 5.0/ 5.4/ 9.4/ 20.6/ 19.0/ 21.4/ 28.3/
:STRANGER CR
ESTK1 4.2/ 16.5/ 18.9/ 21.8/ 21.6/ 23.0/ 25.5/
TNGK1 3.6/ 15.4/ 20.3/ 25.9/ 25.2/ 27.3/ 28.9/
:KANSAS R
DSOK1 5.9/ 10.1/ 11.7/ 19.5/ 18.4/ 21.2/ 26.9/
TNRK1 4.7/ 12.4/ 14.6/ 28.8/ 27.8/ 29.9/ 41.3/
KCKK1 11.1/ 16.5/ 18.0/ 29.8/ 29.0/ 30.9/ 42.3/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:CHAPMAN CR
CHPK1 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.3/ 3.3/
:LYON CR
JNCK1 5.4/ 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.1/
:SMOKY HILL R
JUCK1 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/
:KANSAS R
FTRK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.0/
:WILDCAT CR
MWCK1 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/
:KANSAS R
MHKK1 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/
WMGK1 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/
:VERMILLION CR
VCWK1 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/
:ROCK CR
LISK1 8.5/ 8.5/ 8.5/ 8.5/ 8.5/ 8.5/ 8.5/
:KANSAS R
BVUK1 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.5/ 4.5/
:CROSS CR
RSSK1 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 6.9/ 6.9/
:MILL CR
PXCK1 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/
:KANSAS R
TPAK1 5.1/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.7/
:SOLDIER CR
DELK1 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.0/ 5.0/
TOPK1 -0.2/ -0.3/ -0.5/ -1.0/ -1.0/ -1.0/ -1.0/
:DELAWARE R
MSCK1 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.0/
:KANSAS R
LCPK1 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.4/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.3/
LWRK1 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/
:WAKARUSA R
LAWK1 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/
:STRANGER CR
ESTK1 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/
TNGK1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/
:KANSAS R
DSOK1 4.0/ 3.8/ 3.7/ 3.4/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.3/
TNRK1 -1.9/ -2.3/ -2.5/ -3.1/ -3.1/ -3.2/ -3.2/
KCKK1 6.5/ 6.3/ 6.1/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.6/
.END
$$