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FLUS42 KKEY 041902
HWOKEY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
302 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-051915-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
302 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The NOS water level gauges at Key West Harbor and the west side
of Vaca Key, in addition to the National Park Service gauges
Bayside of the Upper Keys, indicate high tide water levels very
near Coastal Flood Statement. The predicted tides for the next
several days will increase slightly, all due to the new moon.
Finally, a mid latitude low pressure system east of the Carolinas
will disrupt the flow of the Gulf Stream for the next several
days, which may result in an increase in water levels across the
Keys for a week or more. Coastal Flood Statements are in effect
for all of the Florida Keys.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible tonight. The primary
hazards will be gusty winds and cloud to surface lightning
strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Saturday through
Wednesday. The primary hazards will be gusty winds, cloud to
surface lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall.

There is a slight chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
Saturday night through Wednesday due to adequate deep layer shear
and instability. These storms will be capable of damaging wind
gusts.

The interaction of deep tropical moisture, a weak frontal
boundary, and a potential developing tropical cyclone in the Gulf
of Mexico will lead to several days of locally heavy rainfall.
Rainfall totals for Saturday through Wednesday will range between
4 and 6 inches, with locally higher amounts exceeding 8 inches.
The Weather Prediction Center placed South Florida and the Keys in
a Marginal Risk (5-15% chance) for Excessive Rainfall on Sunday
night through Tuesday. This product does not extend past five
days, so expect future renditions to include the potential for
excessive rainfall through at least Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$