525
FXUS62 KKEY 020803
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
403 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather will persist today through this evening.

- Gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes will become light
  to gentle southwesterlies tonight. Aside from convective
  influences, winds will then clock northwest, then north as a
  weak boundary presses southward across the Keys.

- A wetter and thundery pattern will begin moving in tonight.
  Shower and thunderstorms chances are expect to peak Sunday night
  and gradually taper off early next week. Confidence remains low
  regarding total rainfall amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

A mid latitude trough will amplify across the eastern United
States this weekend, with assistance of a couple of shortwave
troughs. While lower level flow will become confluent with
increasing moisture, at least for today and this evening, there
will be enough vestiges of earlier low level ridging to keep
convection at bay. An early morning wind surge will wear off
today, with breezes becoming light to gentle out of the southwest.
Expect slightly above normal temperatures today with dew points
holding in the mid 70s.

Guidance suggests that an old frontal boundary will migrate
southwards into Central and South Florida tonight. The nearly
phased trough aloft will result in broad diffluence aloft while
confluence previously mentioned lower level confluence brings in
much higher moisture and increasing instability. Forecast
soundings indicate precipitable water will climb to just shy of 2
inches by Sunday morning. In addition, the HRRR suggests that
active convection along the frontal boundary will be capable of
driving an active outflow boundary southwards into the Keys late
tonight. This is not an unreasonable solution, however uncertainty
is high. Have nudged rain chances to high chance for tonight.

An additional southern stream shortwave trough will ride through
the mid latitude trough late Sunday, adding support to an already
unstable and very wet column. In addition, the weak frontal
boundary will press southwards in fits and starts through the
Keys. Rain chances will continue to climb through the remainder
of the weekend, likely peaking Sunday night. Considerable
cloudiness, effects of convection, and weak flow, and the passage
of the weak boundary will likely result in temperatures dipping to
only a couple of degrees below normal with dew points slipping to
just above 70.

Through the first half of the week the upper mid latitude trough
will push out into the Atlantic, followed up by ridging building
across the Gulf of America. This will allow surface ridging to
establish itself across the southeast and Florida, bringing in a
more usual light to gentle east to southeasterly flow. Expect
near to slightly above normal temperatures with dew points ranging
in the lower 70s. Rain and thunder chances will steadily taper
off to slight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

A brief southerly wind surge that started early this morning will
gradually slacken through the day while shifting southwesterly.
An active weather pattern will begin moving into the region
late tonight. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase
markedly, peaking Sunday night, then tapering off through the
first half of the week. Through the remainder of the weekend,
breezes will remain light to gentle, shifting from westerly to
northerly as an old frontal boundary pushes southwards into Keys
waters. High pressure will become established across the
southeastern United States through the early part of the week, and
return local breezes to the more usual light to gentle east to
southeasterlies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. However, shower and
thunderstorm chances will sharply increase tonight. Expect gentle
to moderate breezes this morning, gradually relaxing out of the
southwest to west today into tonight.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....AJP

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest