Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
922 FXUS62 KKEY 021544 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1144 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1059 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Another mostly unremarkable morning is unfolding along the Florida Keys as our KBYX radar continues to detect isolated showers working northwest across our local waters, and occasionally crossing the island chain. Key West International Airport picked up a trace of rainfall just after 7 AM while a couple of showers just west of the Upper Keys produced a few lightning strikes as well. Occasionally, we will poke our head outside just to see how things feels, and the air has been muggy this morning. CUrrent automated observations show dew points currently between approximately 75F and 78F. As a rule of thumb, we typically associate dew points in the upper 70s and near 80F with oppressive conditions. Portions of southern Florida are under a Heat Advisory today, per WFO Miami, so it is possible we will see a few observations hit criteria. The difference for us is that there is much uncertainty as to how long we will hit criteria. Either way, if you are sensitive to heat or not acclimated to our weather in Key West, it would be wise to consider indoor plans during the middle of the afternoon when we typically hit peak heating, and ensure you stay hydrated. Remain aware of any heat illness symptoms, and take action if feeling unwell. High pressure remains draped across the area from the North Atlantic into the Gulf. This will lead to maintained southeasterly light to gentle breezes, and mostly benign clusters of cumulus clouds. With some activity still ongoing over the waters, we will maintain the inherited slight chance of showers and thunderstorms today. Otherwise, significant convection isn`t expected. The 12Z sounding this morning showed a layer of dryer air just above our clouds, between roughly 800mb and 675mb, and this is likely why out showers are unable to get enough height to increase lightning chances. No changes will be made to the current forecast package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1059 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, a weak Atlantic surface ridge will remain nosed over South Florida for the next few days. This will promote generally light east to southeasterly breezes. Shifts in this feature`s exact position through the forecast period will result in bouts of some days of fresher breezes than others. A weak tropical wave is expected to encroach the Keys waters by the midweek resulting in a period of more unsettled weather. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 VFR conditions with FEW to SCT clouds near FL025 and southeasterly breezes between 5 and 10 knots will continue. Some showers are still occurring in the area, but chances are low, near 10 percent, that we will see any of this cross either island terminal. If we do see any activity onsite, MVFR conditions should only persist for 15 to 30 minutes as showers earlier this morning haven`t been significant in terms of size or impact. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1923, more than an inch of rain fell in 22 minutes, flooding streets and sidewalks. The official total for the day was 1.58" per our climate records for Key West. Key West precipitation records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 82 92 83 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 90 82 90 83 / 10 10 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest