Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
740 FXUS62 KKEY 151535 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1035 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions will prevail for the rest of today, before an approaching cold front elevates rain chances tonight. After the front passes, mainly dry conditions will follow for the rest of the forecast period. - Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida until winds slacken later this afternoon. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1045 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 Surface analysis places a high pressure system centered a couple hundred miles east of the Florida First Coast, with a low pressure system and an associated cold front progressing across the Gulf Coast, approaching the Florida Panhandle. The interaction of these features has produced overachieving wind speeds this morning across the Florida Keys and the adjacent marine zones. The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled a well-mixed profile from just above the nocturnal inversion at the surface to around 900 mb, with tremendous amounts of dry air above. It should thus come as no surprise that GOES-19 visible satellite imagery is only detecting isolated fair weather cumuli, with KBYX meteorologically echo free. With ample sunshine and warm southerlies, temperatures will easily peak into the upper 70s this afternoon, with some locations possibly clipping near 80F. Outside of minor upticks in wind speeds through early afternoon to account for observational trends, no changes needed to the inherited forecast. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 455 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 Elevated breezes are a result of the interaction between a surface high offshore of the Carolinas and a low pressure system sliding east just north of the Gulf coast. As the high slides out into the western North Atlantic today breezes will gradually slacken to gentle to moderate. Tonight, winds are expected to start veering as a weak cold front associated with the low drags through the central Gulf. This front is expected to pass through the Keys late Monday. The most notable expected impact is above normal rain chances Monday night ahead of and with the front. Northerly breezes with this front will quickly return to the east and slacken by the end of Tuesday. This does mean we`ll see a brief cool down Tuesday morning with lows approaching the lower 60s, but wind quickly returning to a normal direction will mild out temperatures for the next morning. The extended forecast has not changed much. High pressure filtering in behind the weak frontal passage will dominate our weather pattern with easterly winds. This will result in mostly mild conditions and near nil rain chances as dry air aloft continues to suppress meaningful convective development. This ridge is expected to meander off into the western North Atlantic but remained nosed over Florida resulting in a shift to southeasterly breezes at the end of the week. Global models are hinting at the next cold front passage for early next week, but we are regarding this solution with skepticism due to how far out it is for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 1045 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 Observed wind speeds across the Reef remain between 15 and 20 knots at this late morning hour. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are included until winds decrease later this afternoon for Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, high pressure centered off the Carolina Outer Banks interacting with low pressure on the north Gulf coast will support moderate to fresh breezes across the Florida Keys through the early afternoon. Breezes will gradually slacken and veer as the high escapes into the western North Atlantic and the low pressure system nudges a frontal boundary towards the Keys. The front is expected to pass through Monday evening without a potent surge of northerly breezes in its wake. Breezes will continue to slacken and veer to the northeast on Tuesday as the next high pressure slides into the eastern Gulf Basin and keeps hold of our weather pattern into the back half of the work week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period. Southeast to south near-surface winds will occasionally gust to near 20 knots through around 21z, before gusts decrease and become less frequent. A few showers will be possible in the vicinity of the terminals overnight, although lack of coverage and uncertainty for windows of development warrants keeping out of the TAFs at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 78 67 77 63 / 10 30 20 10 Marathon 77 69 77 65 / 10 30 20 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest