Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
865 FXUS62 KKEY 060910 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 510 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Weather conditions have mostly behaved during this overnight shift, but some pockets of showers are popping up in portions of our local waters as we type out this discussion. The pattern is still messy as there is a stationary boundary draped across the area coupled with an area of low level vorticity over the Bahamas. GOES-19 Cloud Top shows a mix of mid and upper level clouds, and automated observations at both of our airports confirm that these clouds have mainly been above 12k feet. These higher clouds should make for a beautiful sunrise without lower clouds blocking the view! Surface observations both along the island chain and on marine platforms are showing breezes out of the north to northeast near 5 knots, or 6 mph. Occasionally, a stray variable breeze will be reported, but this north to northeasterly flow should prevail today. The very slow movement of the activity on radar suggests mean layers winds are exceptionally light, but this won`t be a problem when these showers sit over the water. However, if and when showers are able to build over our island communities, the stagnant flow may lead to near stationary showers. This could lead to localized flooding concerns as water levels have already been elevated during high tide cycles lately. Considering the essentially untapped environment reflected in last night`s 00Z KKEY sounding, there is plenty of opportunity for on and of showers today with embedded thunderstorms at times. The general pattern looks to remain the same over the next few days. The weak area of vorticity still looks like it`ll gradually trail across our area, and ensemble guidance suggests high chances of accumulating rainfall through Friday. As this happens, a tightening gradient over Florida will lead to some elevated breezes. The remnants of this vorticity will be ushered away as we progress through the weekend. MOS guidance is starting to hint at dew points in the lower 70s by the weekend, suggesting an approaching cold front will help to dry things out, and make weather conditions a little more comfortable along the Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Mariners may experience reduced clearance under fixed bridges due to higher tides today as a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the island chain. Otherwise, no other hazard products are in effect. From synopsis, a combination of a stationary frontal boundary and a weak area of low pressure still situated near the Bahamas will make for a messy weather pattern through the next several days. This will maintain above normal rain chances through the entire forecast period. In addition, it will keeps winds fluctuating between northeast and southeast at times. At this time, the strongest breezes look to stay north of our waters but will bear watching for updates. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with FEW to SCT sky conditions near FL025, but waxing and waning nearby showers may lead to infrequent, intermittent MVFR CIGs. Surface winds will remain light and times variable through the forecast period. Winds will become more northerly late overnight into early Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... In 1941, a category 3 Hurricane moving west northwestward made landfall just south of Miami, near Homestead. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 79 88 78 / 40 40 50 50 Marathon 86 78 86 78 / 40 40 60 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest