Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
855 FXUS62 KKEY 050233 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1033 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 A Tropical Depression continues to stew in place off the Carolina Coast this evening. While not expected to directly affect our area, associated lower level troughing does stretch quite far to the southwest and has played a role in a precipitable water well above 2 inches. This low/troughing is also keeping the Atlantic ridge displaced east of our area, resulting in light southwest to westerly breezes. This evenings sounding also indicated considerable CAPE with little in the way of inhibition. With that said, showers have struggled across our forecast area through the evening. This is likely due to mesoscale and synoptic scale enhancement of low level diffluence in our area. The Tropical Depression is expected to slowly strengthen, becoming a Tropical Storm, as it meanders slowly northwestward overnight. This will have little effect to the overall shape of synoptic scale features in our area. However, confluence should increase across the local area, as is almost always the case during the overnight hours. Given the ample moisture and CAPE, along with limited inhibition, the current lack of activity should give way to at least scattered activity overnight. Surface winds will remain light out of the southwest to west. Expect overnight lows in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 328 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 The combination of a developing Tropical Depression off the Carolina Coast and the Atlantic ridge off to our east will result in light to gentle southwest to west breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period. Only minor adjustments made in first period wind wording in the evening marine update. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 328 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. With that said, there will be a chance for sub VFR conditions due to showers, and a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Surface winds will be light out of the southwest to west. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest