Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
506 FXUS62 KKEY 050924 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 424 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 424 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025 Mostly clear, mild and dry conditions prevail along the Florida Keys on this early Wednesday morning, with radars detecting no precipitation across the area. Temperatures are hovering in the lower to mid 70s, with dewpoints near 70, and gentle breezes of near 10 mph varying from NE in the Lower Keys to ESE in the Upper Keys. Surface analysis depicts high pressure extending from the western Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and along the northern Gulf coast, to the south of a stalled frontal boundary draped across the Southeastern states. Aloft, deep ridging continues to dominate our region. This is reflected by the 00Z Key West sounding, which sampled shallow moisture below 850 mb, capped by a solid inversion and very dry mid levels. PW of 1.02 inches was just below normal for the date. MIMIC and GOES-TPW satellite imagery shows similar estimated PWs near one inch around and to the east of the Keys. Today will see very similar conditions to the past several days, with a good deal of sunshine and high temps climbing to around 80 degrees. We expect little change through the entire forecast period, as deep ridging aloft remains dominant with passing cold fronts diverted well north of our area. A series of surface highs moving from the eastern CONUS into the western Atlantic will maintain generally moderate easterly flow, with some minor day to day variations. The only mention of rain in the forecast will be on Saturday and Saturday night, when guidance continues to bring a slug of slightly deeper moisture NW through our area. Have maintained dime PoPs for those periods. Temps will remain above normal, with lows mostly in the lower 70s and highs between 79 and 82 degrees. In summary, tranquil dry season weather will persist across the Keys through at least the next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 424 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025 Late night observations show easterly breezes of 10 to 13 knots along the reef and at Long Key C-MAN, with seas at Satan Shoal running near 3 feet. No marine headlines are currently in effect, but Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines may be needed for the Straits tonight into Thursday morning. From the synopsis, gentle to moderate easterly breezes will prevail across the Florida Keys coastal waters through most of the remainder of the week and into the weekend, as several areas of high pressure move across the eastern United States and into the western North Atlantic. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are expected from late this afternoon through Thursday morning, and may develop again Friday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 424 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025 VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. While a few bouts of MVFR CIGs may develop and pass over either terminal early this morning, any impacts should be short lived. Confidence in timing or duration is too low to included in either TAF at this time. Near surface winds start out of the northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots early, before becoming more easterly later today. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history in 1996, a low temperature of 45F at the Key West international airport tied the record for the date. This was part of a record-shattering cold outbreak that affected much of the eastern two thirds of the U.S. that week, breaking all-time cold records throughout the Midwest a few days earlier. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...85 Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest