Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
294 FXUS62 KKEY 240308 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1108 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing moisture in association with an easterly wave will keep higher rain chances through the end of the week. - Heat indices may approach 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon for some Florida Keys island communities, especially in the Upper Keys. - Wind speeds will decrease late week and into the weekend with mainly light breezes prevailing. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1101 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026 There has been a substantial moistening trend across the Florida Keys compared to the past several days as the 00Z KEY RAOB from this evening sampled a PWAT of 2.05 inches, which is between the 75th and 90th percentile per SPC sounding climatology. This deeper moisture across the region coupled with the arrival a low level inverted trough tracking across the Bahamas and the development of a mature cloud line earlier led to an active scene on recent KBYX radar imagery with scattered to numerous showers and storms across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters this evening. This activity is moving to the west rather quickly around 25-30 mph so momentum transfer to the surface of gusts around 40 to 45 mph or so won`t be out of the question within some of the stronger storms that develop. As a result, we will be monitoring conditions closely for the remainder of the evening and into the overnight hours for potential special marine warning considerations, as this activity is expected to persist through at least late evening but it could linger well into the overnight hours given the unstable and moist environment. One thing of note overnight is that the low level flow will veer in the wake of the inverted trough`s passage, so storm motions should gradually become more northwesterly as the night progresses. This also could ultimately yield a more leeside pattern to the convective regime on Friday, particularly across the lower Keys. Otherwise, overnight lows will fall to the low to mid 80s across the Island Chain tonight, though some areas may end of getting a bit more relief depending on which areas receive the most persistent shower activity. && .MARINE... Issued at 1101 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, mostly gentle to moderate breezes expected today as a weak easterly wave slowly moves in from the east during the day. This feature will move east to west across of the Florida Keys waters, exiting sometime on Friday. Mariners can expect an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms beginning today and peaking overnight into early Friday. Behind this feature, breezes will slacken to light to gentle through the first half of the weekend as a col develops across the region. Thereafter, breezes will freshen to gentle breezes and back to the west to northwest as a surface trough develops Sunday. Breezes will return from the southwest and west as the trough moves east of the Florida Peninsula early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1101 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Widely scattered to numerous SHRA and occasional TSRA will move across the Island Chain this evening and during the overnight hours as deeper moisture continues to advect into the region. This activity could lead to brief MVFR/IFR restrictions, particularly during heavier pockets of precipitation. Thus, VCSH has been added to both terminals for the overnight hours with VCTS mainly beginning Friday morning through the afternoon, though precipitation coverage should decrease somewhat by Friday evening. Regardless, conditions will be VFR outside of thunderstorm activity with easterly winds overnight and will gradually shift to more of a SE direction into Friday. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...RG Aviation/Nowcasts....RG Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest