787
FXUS62 KKEY 011537
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1137 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1053 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
A mild and mostly quiet morning is continuing to unfold along the
Florida Keys as our KBYX radar continues to detect widely isolated
showers over our waters. Some of these light showers tracked
across the Upper Keys shortly after sunrise, and a combination of
radar derived estimates and surface observations suggest that only
a few hundredths of an inch of rain fell on island communities. A
small cluster of heavier showers is situated approximately 30
miles to the southeast of Marathon Humps in the distant Straits,
but that is the only noteworthy activity currently on radar. If
these showers continue their progress through the Straits, and
eventually Hawk Channel, we may see some sprinkles in the Lower
and Middle Keys. In general, the environment doesn`t favor
particularly heavy or significant activity. CIMSS MIMIC PWAT shows
a swath of values between 1.3 and 1.5 inches, and the 12Z
sounding from this morning supports this. These values are around
the tenth percentile, so this is fairly dry air for this time of
year. Mean layer ridging means subsidence should prevent
widespread convective initiation, but boundaries from current
activity may trigger occasional new showers. All of this is to say
that the 10 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms today
for the island chain seems very reasonable, so we will not be
making any changes or updates to the forecast package at this
time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1053 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the coastal
waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a weak western arm of
an Atlantic ridge will remain across South Florida and the Keys
over the next couple of days. This will result in light broadly
southeasterly breezes across Keys waters. The ridge will lift
northward into Central Florida heading into the weekend. As a
result, marine winds will nudge upwards slightly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the rest
of today, and into tonight. Due to low chances of rain, near 10
percent, showers have been kept out of the current TAF package.
Surface winds will remain out of the southeast at 5 to 10 knots.
These conditions are expected to continue beyond the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1884, the daily record high temperature of 95F was
last recorded in Key West. Key West temperature records date back to
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  92  82  91  82 /  10  10  10  10
Marathon  91  83  91  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....DP

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