980
FXUS62 KKEY 222139
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
439 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025
Weather conditions are still mostly benign this afternoon with the
exception of our easterly breezes that are still reporting near 15
mph with gusts up to 25 mph. These should come down as we head
into the evening hours. Even though some sunshine made it through
the breaks in the clouds, satellite shows skies filling in from
our west. The radar is also starting to pick up on an increase of
shower activity just outside the western boundary of our marine
zones. Opting to continue with the 10 percent chance for showers
tonight just in case one of two track closer to the island chain.

Tomorrow, a slot of drier air will help to erode some of the cloud
cover. Enjoy the sunshine and calmer conditions, because the
developing low over the Gulf is still expected to arrive to our
area sometime during the Sunday night or early Morning timeframe.
Most of the rainfall along the island chain should take place on
Monday and Monday night as the low tracks across Florida, and
we`ll dry out on Tuesday as it lifts away. It is difficult to
pinpoint how much rainfall we may see from this unsettled weather,
because we still have a couple of days before it arrives. It is
easier to track the development of the embedded heavier showers in
near real time, but the overall theme is a wet Monday with
lingering light showers early Tuesday.

Guidance has some fair agreement that we could see a deepening
trough extend into the southeastern U.S. toward the end of the
week. While this would suggest some elevated breezes and increased
chances for rainfall, we will have to wait and see how this first
low pressure evolves before we can really get a grasp on how the
mid level troughing will evolve. In so many words, the pattern is
progressive and unsettled, and we`ll just have to take it day by
day through the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025
Expansive high pressure will remain the dominant
feature, but it is slowly shifting eastward away from the eastern
coastline of the U.S. As the high moves offshore into the western
North Atlantic, another weaker high will take its place across
the Southeastern United States resulting in slackening breezes
over the course of tonight and Sunday. An area of weak low
pressure is expected to develop over the northwestern Gulf Sunday
and Sunday night. As the low moves east, the potential exists for
varying breezes, especially Monday with northwest to north breezes
anticipated Monday night through Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 258 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both terminals through the
TAF period. Cloud bases continue to hover near FL030, so while brief
excursions into MVFR conditions are possible, they should remain
short enough to not warrant inclusion in the TAFs. Winds will remain
northeast to east through the overnight, with speeds decreasing and
gusts diminishing late this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  69  78  71  79 /  10   0  20  80
Marathon  69  77  71  80 /  10   0  10  80

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....MC
Data Acquisition.....MC

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