Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
531 FXUS62 KKEY 101527 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1127 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will support potential bouts of freshwater flooding through tonight. -A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys. The combination of the current King Tide cycle and persistent bouts of rainfall will support additional flooding over roadways and low lying lots. Coastal flooding will likely continue into the weekend. -A weak cold front is anticipated to move through the Keys over the weekend. This will usher in drier air by late Saturday, and also bring the first taste of Florida Fall to the Keys into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 An extremely active late overnight and morning for the Florida Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore marine zones. Slow- moving, training showers and thunderstorms set up over portions of the Lower and Middle Keys, with widespread rain gauge and MRMS- derived totals of 2-4", with isolated amounts up to 6" in these areas. KBYX and KMTH radar reflectivity trends have been downward over the past couple of hours along the Island Chain allowing Flood Advisories to expire, with the strongest activity now displaced in the distant Straits of Florida and to the northwest in the offshore Gulf waters. Owed to the widespread rainfall, temperatures remain in the mid to upper 70s across the Island communities. For the balance of today, an upper-level trough impinging from the east will interact with a stagnant inverted low- and mid-level trough across the Keys. This will support continued large-scale ascent, although convective potenital instability will likely be stinted until recharging can occur later this evening and overnight. The forecast calls for continued showers this afternoon, with potential stronger thunderstorms redeveloping this evening or overnight. No changes proposed to the inherited forecast at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1130 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 From synopsis, a low- and mid-level trough located over western Cuba will continue to slowly drift northward today and then north northeastward tonight. This will support bouts of elevated rain and thunder chances. The system will develop into an area of low pressure off the coast of Florida, with southeasterly light to gentle breezes gradually backing to the northwest to north over the weekend. The low pressure system will continue organizing and strengthening as it heads northeastward adjacent to the Mid- Atlantic coast. As it does this, it will drive an early season cold front towards the Keys, further shifting winds to the north to northeast. Northerly swells will be possible in our western marine zones today and through the weekend due to the influence of the low pressure system. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Widespread showers in the vicinity of the terminals supports a prevailing SHRA period through 00z this evening at both EYW and MTH island terminals. Any stronger thunderstorm will be handled with possible short-term amendments, including TEMPO groups. A lull in thunderstorm activity is expected for this period, before a period of recharging overnight. Have elected to include a general VCSH for that period due to uncertainty in timing and evolution, with a PROB30 to account for enhanced thunder chances through 12z Saturday morning. This will be reevaluated at the 18z TAF issuance. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT/AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest