Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
805 FXUS62 KKEY 171446 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1046 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1045 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 It is another quiet and warm start for the Florida Keys this morning. KBYX radar is clear of any precipitable echoes though notes a couple of Cuban boundaries lazing through the Straits of Florida towards the island chain. GOES-19 visible satellite imagery confirms mostly clear skies across our CWA along with an anticylonic flow pushing around the few patches fair weather cumulus that exist. Gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes persist along the Reef and are perhaps a knot or two lower following sunrise. Temperatures across the island chain are already in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s. High pressure out in the central North Atlantic will continue to control our weather in the short term. Ridging over Florida will promote subsidence and work with dry air aloft to keep PoPs near nil. Evidence of this pattern is found in this morning`s KKEY balloon sounding where an inversion around 900 mb marks the border between dry air aloft and moist air closer to the surface. Our CWA will start on the western periphery of the surface ridge today, but as its axis wobbles north our winds will turn towards the east. The usual daytime lull due to heating over mainland Florida also looks to make an appearance to influence our windfield as it seems like it will do over the next few days. No changes to the forecast are required at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1045 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a dry pattern defined by a distant high pressure system in the central Atlantic and lack of a close high over the CONUS will lead to breezes shifting from light to moderate breezes for the next few days. In the absence of nearby strong pressure systems, breezes will peak and lull through Tuesday. Near nil shower chances will persist until Wednesday as an increase in moisture allows for possible showers and isolated thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Dry air will keep rain chances near nil. Near surface winds will be east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots through this evening. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2005, a persistent cloud line produced numerous funnel clouds and waterspouts just north of Key West for over an hour. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 87 79 87 80 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 87 80 88 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest