764
FXUS62 KKEY 231749
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
149 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing moisture in association with an easterly wave will
  yield much higher rainfall chances mid to late week.

- Heat indices may approach 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon for
  some Florida Keys island communities, especially in the Upper
  Keys.

- Wind speeds will decrease late week and into the weekend with
  mainly light breezes prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Scattered showers will continue to move westerly through
the coastal waters occasionally crossing over the island chain
therefore VCSH is included through the period. Thunderstorms the
late evening into the overnight are possible at both terminals as
an easterly wave moves through the Keys. Near surface winds will
be easterly at near 10 knots with higher gusts in passing
convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1137 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, mostly gentle to moderate
breezes expected today as a weak easterly wave slowly moves in
from the east during the day. This feature will move east to west
across of the Florida Keys waters, exiting sometime on Friday.
Mariners can expect an increase in coverage of showers and
thunderstorms beginning today and peaking overnight into early
Friday. Behind this feature, breezes will slacken to light to
gentle through the first half of the weekend as a col develops
across the region. Thereafter, breezes will freshen to gentle
breezes and back to the west to northwest as a surface trough
develops Sunday. Breezes will return from the southwest and west
as the trough moves east of the Florida Peninsula early next week.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Showers have gradually been increasing from east to west across
the area during the overnight and early morning hours. These
showers are a result of a pocket of moisture pivoting around the
base of the ridge that has sat out across the Southwestern
Atlantic and Florida Peninsula the last several days. This ridge
is also maintaining an east to southeast wind across the area
with speeds generally 10 to 15 knots across our coastal waters.

Lurking just to our east, across the Southeastern Bahamas, is a
broad easterly wave that will be slowly moving into the region
throughout the day. As it moves into the area, we can expect winds
to gradually back towards the northeast and moisture increasing.
Rain and thunder chances will be increasing by this afternoon, and
peak overnight into early Friday morning.

As this wave continues a westward motion into the Gulf basin, we
will briefly enter a col region for the first half of the weekend
with winds going light and possibly variable at times. Beginning
Sunday, a surface trough will begin developing along the eastern
U.S. which will induce a west to northwest wind across the area
starting Sunday. As the trough moves eastward early next week,
winds will back to the southwest and west. This could set us up
for potential reverse cloud lines next week. Otherwise, rain
chances will generally return to near normal, outside of any
nocturnal contributions from either Cuba or the mainland.

&&


.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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