891
FXUS62 KKEY 071930
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
330 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moisture will linger across the region through midweek,
  supporting rain and thunderstorm chances.

- The primary threat for any stronger thunderstorms will be
  dangerous lightning strikes. When thunder roars, go indoors. If
  on a boat, stay low, or go below.

- Heat index values will range from 100-105 degrees daily, with
  little relief in the muggy conditions overnight. Know the signs
  of heat stress, take frequent breaks, and stay hydrated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Light and variable breezes will persist tonight through early
Wednesday as the Keys remain in a weak and nebulous flow regime.
By Wednesday, expecting the Atlantic Ridge to begin sliding
westward and leading to freshening easterly breezes. The ridge
will then gradually lift north and northeast through the end of
the week with breezes entering more of a daytime lull with
overnight peaks. Throughout the period, we expect moisture to
linger across region, supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Shower activity has diminished this afternoon with VFR conditions
for both island terminals. However, conditions remain favorable
for additional convection to develop this afternoon before drier
air moves in. This will bring a brief lull this evening through
the overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 501 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A mostly uneventful night into early morning for KBYX as only a
few light scattered showers have been detected in the offshore
waters. Temperatures along the island chain are in the mid 80s
making for little relief from the day time highs of near 90.
According to Nighttime Microphysics skies are partly cloudy.
Marine observations across the Reef are reporting light and
variable winds. Today is expected to be similar to the past few
days as deep tropical moisture continues to linger in the region.
MIMIC Precipitable Water is showing around 2.2 inches surrounding
our area. Models suggest activity will ramp up in the early to mid
morning. A afternoon cloud line development is possible as light
variable winds remain light and become southeasterly.

By mid week, the elevated rain chances we have been experiencing
for the past few days will return to near normal as high pressure
starts to build in. High pressure will also result in a slight
freshening of breezes with mid week with periods of gentle to
moderate breezes with the possibility of at times fresh. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are not expected at this time. Stay
tuned for any updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  92  82  93 /  30  30  30  30
Marathon  83  90  83  91 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....LIW

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