Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
120 FXUS62 KKEY 161515 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1115 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1115 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Another somewhat typical summer day is underway across the Keys. A stubborn layer of dry air in the lower to mid levels kept nocturnal convection confined off in the Straits of Florida earlier this morning. However, with the onset of the afternoon just around the corner, GOES-19 visible imagery is already showing developing cloudlines over the majority of the island chain. KBYX radar has detected a few showers associated with these cloudlines, but these are generally short lived for now. Meanwhile, a broken line of convection continues to bubble on the southeastern edge of the Straits of Florida with a rare thunderstorm or two rarely overachieving. Temperatures along the island chain are similar to this time yesterday as they float around the upper 80s to near 90. Gentle northeast to east breezes persist along the Reef as mean layer ridging continues to dominate our synoptic flow. Rain chances have increased just a touch from yesterday, but conditions will be relatively the same. CIMSS layer TPW shows that an undulation of more moist air now covers our CWA. Calculated values are now above 2 inches across the area, close to the 90th percentile for today. That does not tell the full story however, as this morning`s KKEY sounding only clocked in with a near average PW of 1.83 inches. Part of this discrepancy is found in the spike of dry air observed in the lower to mid levels of the sounding profile. While not as pronounced as yesterday, this feature is certainly affecting development today with showers that had attempted to form near the island chain fizzling quickly. Recent CAM runs still continue to suggest some convection forming near the Lower Keys over the next few hours showing that the increase in moisture, though not as large as first thought, could still do enough to make for better shower coverage than previous days. As such, opted to hold onto chance PoPs in the short term with no changes to the forecast required at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1115 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a broad ridge stretching from the North Atlantic westward across the Florida Peninsula will result in light to gentle easterly breezes across the Keys coastal waters for the rest of the weekend, and early next week. Rain and thunder chances will be near to slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH today. A chance of showers is in the forecast today with a few cloud lines already starting to form just north and along the island chain. However, uncertainty in exact coverage and timing of potential showers will keep mention out of either TAF for now. Near surface winds will be out of the northeast to east at 4 to 9 knots && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1861, a hurricane moved northwest through the Straits of Florida just southwest of the Lower Keys. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 81 92 82 / 30 40 30 40 Marathon 90 82 90 82 / 30 30 30 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest