978
FXUS62 KKEY 221736
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
136 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. A cloud line is developing along the northside of the
island chain in the Lower and Middle Keys. VCSH is included for
both terminals as this cloud line is starting to have some
activity associated with it. Near surface winds will continue to
be light and primarily south to southwesterly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025
KBYX has remained mostly quiet apart from an occasional pop up
shower and a few lightning strikes this morning. Outside of this
activity, GOES-19 Visible Satelitte depicts mostly sunny skies in
the CWA. Temperatures across the island chain are creeping up to
near 90, meaning today will be a hot one. Along the Reef, winds
are 5 knots or less. For this afternoon, the development of a
reverse cloud line is possible, as light winds continue to
prevail. If it is able to develop, this cloud line will result in
some showers just north of the island chain, potentially impacting
the Lower and Middle Keys. Outside of a cloud line development,
not too much activity is expected today with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast and light southwesterly
winds across our waters. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect
for all of the Florida Keys as tides are running higher than
predicted for today. As a result, minor salt water flooding of low
elevation streets and lots is likely.

&&

.FORECAST...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Hurricane Erin is now moving away from the United States coastline
as it continues to race off to the northeast south of the Canadian
Maritimes over the next few days. Other than that, the main
weather feature for the next several days to week will be a weak
subtropical high continuing to build into the Keys today and then
settling over the weekend into early next week. Moisture continues
to remain quite plentiful again for today with GOES East Total
Precipitable Water (TPW) products showing PWAT values of 1.7 to
2.0 inches across the Keys. Therefore, 20% PoP was maintained.
However, the only real trigger we have to get any shower or
thunderstorm activity are leftover mesoscale boundaries and other
latent heat fluxes. In addition, there remains the potential for
reverse cloud lines at least today and again on Saturday as the
pattern remains quite stagnant and winds remain light out of the
southwest. This is typically a good pattern for cloud lines and
waterspouts. We will keep an eye on this closely over the next
couple days.

Weak ridging remains dominant through the extended period
resulting in 20% PoPs through around mid week before a slight
increase in moisture is anticipated which will raise PoPs back to
chances at 30%. Otherwise, the summertime heat and humidity will
be the name of the game going forward with daytime highs in the
lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower to potentially mid 80s.
Heat index values will be consistently between 105 to 108 degrees
each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025
A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all of the Florida
Keys through this evening. Elsewhere, no watches, warnings, or
advisories are in effect for the Keys. From synopsis, Hurricane
Erin continues to race off into the North Atlantic south of the
Canadian Maritimes. A weak subtropical high pressure ridge will
continue to build into the Keys today before settling over the
Keys over the weekend continuing into early next week. This will
result in generally light breezes, occasionally becoming light to
gentle breezes as well as becoming variable at times.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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