823
FXUS62 KKEY 191502
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1102 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1052 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Windy conditions continue over the Florida Keys thanks to the trio
of a well developed ridge over the eastern United States, Tropical
Storm Nadine, and the newly named Tropical Storm Oscar. Small
Craft Advisory conditions will persist through the afternoon as
breezes slackened from Gale Warning speeds to strong breezes.
Meanwhile, the lingering frontal boundary responsible for
yesterday`s off and on rainfall will stay stalled over Cuba and
the southern Florida Straits. Finally, the 12Z KKEY sounding
measured PWAT values close to the maximum climatological value as
cloud decks from Tropical Storm Nadine continue to advect across
the Keys.

Extremely moist conditions are not expected to last through the
afternoon. Tropical Storm Nadine is moving west, away from the
Keys, pulling the moisture field in its wake. The 12Z sounding
also measured a distinct lack of instability, and the replenishing
cloud deck from Nadine`s outflow will limit surface heating
across the Keys. Diminishing returns on KBYX also suggests lower
shower coverage, and thus decided to lower PoPs across the CWA.
Once the cloud deck clears, a drier air mass will surge south
across the Florida Peninsula and bring a temporary end to above
average rain chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1052 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys coastal
waters zones. From synopsis, a sprawling autumn high pressure
system over the eastern United States will maintain strong
northeasterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters today and
tonight. The high pressure system will weaken very slowly next
week, with breezes across Keys coastal waters decreasing very
gradually through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Fresh to strong northeast to east breezes will persist at both
island terminals throughout the TAF period. While there is no
explicit mention of VCSH in the TAFs at this time, a stray, light
shower may pass through either terminal. Any shower should have
minimal impacts to visibilities. Short term amendments will continue
to cover any fast moving showers crossing over either island
terminal.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1876, a
Hurricane moved north-northeastward from Havana, Cuba across the
Straits of Florida and the lower Florida Keys, with the eye
passing over Key West where the minimum pressure was 28.73 inches
of mercury. The peak wind was 88 mph on the south side of the eye
wall. The eye lasted 2 hours and 15 minutes in Key West.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....BT
Data Acquisition.....BT

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