Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
141 FXUS62 KKEY 060853 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 453 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A moisture surge will support bouts of elevated rain and thunder chances through the Labor Day holiday weekend. - The primary threat for any stronger thunderstorms will be dangerous lightning strikes. When thunder roars, go indoors. If on a boat, stay low, or go below. - Heat indices will approach the mid 100s daily, with little relief in the muggy conditions overnight. Know the signs of heat stress, take frequent breaks, and stay hydrated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 453 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026 KBYX enjoyed a nice break with a mostly shower free radar for a few hours. Now a few isolated showers and thunderstorms have started to pop up in the distant Straits. Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 80s which is slightly lower than 24 hours ago thanks to a little cooling rain we got yesterday. Along the Reef, marine locations are reporting southeasterly winds near 5 knots. As a large trough on the east coast digs south, another day of elevated shower and thunder chances is forecast for the Florida Keys. At the surface we are sitting between two high pressures one in the Gulf and one in the Western Atlantic, therefore, winds will remain light and southeasterly and becoming southerly at times. Deep tropical moisture is still being seen on MIMIC with values above 2 inches in the region. Models are suggesting convection ramps up a few hours after sunrise and is widespread throughout the Keys, though PoPs were held at 50% for the day. With southeast to south light winds an afternoon cloud line is possible, producing showers and possibly some waterspouts. Later this evening, shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to decrease, therefore, PoPs have been decreased to 40% for the tonight period. Starting Monday, chances of showers and thunderstorms will return to near normal for this time as ridging takes back over. && .MARINE... Issued at 453 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, light to gentle southeast breezes will prevail through mid week, as weak steering flow persists across the region. Thereafter, breezes will freshen to gentle to moderate, as high pressure builds in. Waves of low-level moisture pushing across the Keys will support elevated rain and thunder chances through this afternoon, possibly returning to near normal by mid week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 453 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Mid morning shower activity will ramp up therefore VCSH is include for both terminals and TEMPOs will be included if direct impacts are expected. Near surface winds will be southeast to southerly at near 5 knots through the afternoon. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest