Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
867 FXUS62 KKEY 041501 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1101 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Water vapor imagery highlights a weak upper-level trough sagging into the southeastern US and the northeastern Gulf of America. A broad region of low-level cyclonic curvature stretches from the Atlantic Bight to the eastern Gulf. The sharpest curvature is to the east of Jacksonville where AL92 formed overnight. VIS/IR sandwich imagery depicts cyclonic flow across the southeastern Gulf that transitions into weakly confluent southwesterlies near the Keys. The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled these southwesterlies from near the surface to near 600 mb. The profile is moist, uninhibited, and composed of moderate ML instability. Dewpoint depressions between 900 and 500 mb range from 3-8 degC, and indicative of the short life cycle of this morning`s scattered thunderstorms. The updrafts freely convect, but end up quickly entraining dry air. CIRA`s LPW 700-500 mb product places a narrow ribbon of enhanced moisture across the Keys, with a potent dry slug at the latitude of Fort Myers. This slug should pivot through the Keys in the next 24 hours, possibly as early as Saturday morning. Until then, 50% chance for showers/thunderstorms appears to be appropriate. For this evening`s festivities, day time heating should fully maintain the scattered coverage towards sunset. LAV statistical and HREF lightning probabilities suggest reduced coverage after dark. And yet, the confluent southwesterlies will still be in place, so bring an umbrella, and remember, when thunder roars, go indoors. && .MARINE... Issued at 1035 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a deep trough complex over the Southeast US and Florida will maintain gentle southwest breezes across the Florida Keys through the weekend. As the trough lifts northeast starting Sunday, a weak ridge axis will rebuild across the Keys and South Florida, resulting in a return to generally light to gentle easterly breezes. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Radar trends highlight scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Keys this morning, although coverage has been favored near and to the west of EYW. The life cycle of these storms has been 45 minutes or less, so timing TEMPOs in the advertised TAFs remains difficult. Chances for temporary convective impacts remains above normal (50%) through the afternoon. Based on this morning`s thunderstorm near EYW, MVFR CIGS, IFR VIS, and convective wind gusts near 25 knots will accompany the thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 81 91 82 / 50 50 50 40 Marathon 89 81 88 81 / 50 50 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....CLR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest