Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
774 FXUS62 KKEY 230222 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1022 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing moisture in association with an easterly wave will yield much higher rainfall chances mid to late week. - Heat indices may approach 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon for some Florida Keys island communities, especially in the Upper Keys. - Wind speeds will decrease late week and into the weekend as mainly light breezes prevail. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Recent KBYX radar imagery shows scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms in multiple areas. One area of activity is drifting westward into the eastern Straits downstream of Andros Island, another continues to drift offshore of SWFL into the offshore Gulf waters, and there is also a decaying area of activity across western Cuba. Meanwhile, deeper moisture is not far from the FL Keys at this time as Water Vapor imagery shows a TUTT analyzed around the eastern Bahamas and this feature will help advect this deeper moisture towards the region overnight into Thursday. In fact, just 24 hours ago, the KEY RAOB sampled a PWAT of just 1.14 inches but this evening`s balloon launch (23/00Z) registered a much higher value of 1.63 inches. Although this value still remains below average for late July standards, this illustrates the recent moistening trend in the air mass with PWAT values forecast to return to at least normal (1.8 inches) or above normal by Thursday. With some modest increase in upper divergence aloft along the northern periphery of the TUTT as it tracks to the south of the region across the Caribbean, rain chances will be quite a bit higher than what has been observed recently with some isolated to occasional scattered activity around the region overnight into Thursday morning but increasing in coverage throughout the day on Thursday. Otherwise, warm and humid conditions will remain in control with overnight lows in the low to mid 80s across the Florida Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 914 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 An Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend to the Florida Peninsula for the next several days. Gentle breezes will briefly become moderate overnight through early Thursday, then gradually slacken to light to gentle breezes by Friday, peaking overnight and lull during the day. Light winds are expected this weekend. In addition, moisture will be gradually increasing starting Thursday in association with an easterly wave moving in from the Atlantic. This will allow for increased rain chances for the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 914 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 VFR conditions will generally prevail throughout the TAF period at both island terminals. However, deeper moisture will move into the area on Thursday and this could lead to scattered SHRA and occasional TSRA, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow. At this time, confidence in overall precipitation coverage was not high enough to include VCSH/VCTS in latest TAF issuance, but brief flight restrictions to MVFR or worse may occur at times on Thursday if heavier precip activity directly impacts either terminals. Otherwise, ESE surface winds will be in place throughout the period around 10 kts, though brief stronger gusts could occur in the vicinity of showers/storms. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...RG Aviation/Nowcasts....RG Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest