152
FXUS62 KKEY 031842
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
242 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Mostly sunny skies continue this afternoon across the Florida
Keys. Temperatures are safely in the mid 80s with dew points in
the mid 70s, still warmer than normal for early April. The KBYX
radar detected shallow lines of showers in the southern Straits of
Florida along a sea breeze boundary generated by the Cuban land
mass, but by late afternoon few if any showers are seen on radar.
Satellite observations show patches of cumulus across our eastern
waters. Those in the Keys can thank a strong, 1036 mb high over
the North Atlantic for sustaining a very tight pressure gradient
across southern Florida for these conditions, and buoys at the
reef measure winds near or above 20 knots with frequent gusts.
Tonight, expect little reprieve from the humidity as strong
breezes will keep temperatures in the upper 70s.

Persistence often gets used negatively in meteorology, but
sometimes the weather takes a long time to change. Across the
Keys, it will take a couple of days for windy or breezy conditions
to abate. The Atlantic high will remain relatively close to the
eastern seaboard, and it is unlikely to weaken below 1030 mb until
Saturday. Warmer than normal temperatures will persist through
the weekend and southeasterlies will keep dew points high, so do
not expect the muggy weather to wane. Stray showers are still
possible along minor wind boundaries and interactions with land
breezes generated by the Cuban or Bahamian land masses. A
deepening trough over the eastern US will finally allow winds to
slacken.

A lull in winds on Sunday night to Monday will hint towards
potential active weather next week. The aforementioned trough will
allow development of low pressure systems over the eastern United
States, which may direct frontal passages towards the Florida
Keys. Ensemble and statistical guidance show patterns supporting
an increase in moisture, lower temperatures, and a possible drop
in dew points to the low to mid 60s late next week. However,
statistical guidance pushed the front back a day and model
ensembles keep jet dynamics north of the Keys. If the environment
continues to look more unstable, thunder may be added to the
forecast. Elected to keep thunder out for this forecast cycle, and
PoPs are limited to 30% next week. Later updates will have a
better grasp on this mid April potential front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Florida Keys
coastal waters through tonight. From synopsis, a pronounced high
pressure system remains over the North Atlantic, which is
sustaining fresh to strong east to southeasterly breezes across
the Florida Keys waters. Breezes will begin to slacken Sunday
morning as a low pressure system deepens over the eastern United
States. Shower chances will stay near nil until next week when a
frontal passage may occur sometime around Tuesday to Wednesday.
Lightning probabilities are absent from the forecast at this time
due to the uncertain strength of the potential front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of
today and into tonight. While a stray shower or two cannot be
ruled out, they will be too light and sporadic to mention in
either TAF at this time. Near surface winds will be out of the
east to southeast at 15 to 20 knots with frequent gusts near 25
knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1915, the daily record cold high temperature of
66F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West
date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  79  86  78  87 /   0  10  10   0
Marathon  79  85  78  85 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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