Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
431 FXUS62 KKEY 011557 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1157 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1142 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 CIMSS satellite-derived vorticity analysis places an expansive cyclonic upper-level gyre extending from the eastern Gulf eastward to well east of the Bahamas. This forcing for upper- level ventilation, combined with a moisture surge in the wake of a wave of Saharan dust, as well as copious outflow boundaries from the Mainland and Cuba supported scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for last night`s overnight period through around sunrise. Convective available potential energy (CAPE) has since been exhausted, with recent GOES visible satellite trends highlighting mostly sunny skies across the Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore marine zones. Temperatures are finally rising into the upper 80s at this late morning hour. For this afternoon, coupled with the need for recharging of CAPE, southeast to south low- level steering flow will support some temporary moisture profile drying, with low rain and thunder chances expected. Thereafter, with the upper-level cyclonic flow still in the vicinity of the Florida Keys, we will need to watch for additional convection over the mainland to interact with any developing storms over Cuba to see if/when additional redevelopment occurs this evening and through at least the early overnight hours. Overall, this forecast reasoning is consistent with the inherited once-per-day full forecast package crafted overnight. No changes proposed. && .MARINE... Issued at 1142 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Florida Keys coastal waters zones. From synopsis, broad low-level ridging will continue to rebuild over the North Atlantic and support gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters, veering to the southeast to south and modestly slackening throughout the week. An upper-level low north of the Bahamas will continue to move slowly northwestward towards the Florida east coast early this week, supporting slightly enhanced rain and thunder chances. Rain chances will briefly taper back mid-week before increasing again late this week due to a new weather disturbance sliding into the Southeast United States. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period. After a lull in any scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity through the afternoon, additional convective development is expected after 00z this evening. Confidence in timing and evolution is too low to include mention in the TAF at this time, although this will be reevaluated for the 18z TAF issuance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 82 90 81 / 60 30 20 10 Marathon 88 82 88 82 / 50 30 20 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest