Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
326 FXUS62 KKEY 020211 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1011 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Fairly quiet weather conditions will continue through at least Saturday afternoon. - Gentle to modestly moderate southeast to south breezes will slacken by Saturday night. - Rain chances will remain low through at least Saturday. A wetter and thundery pattern is becoming increasingly likely for Saturday night through Monday, although there is low confidence in total rainfall amounts at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 928 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026 We aren`t tired of talking about the benign weather conditions across the area since we know some wetter, messier conditions are ahead of us this weekend. However, that can be discussed in a future discussion. Our area has been hanging onto the fringes of high pressure that is currently tracking eastward into the North Atlantic. A frontal boundary laying along the northern Gulf Coast has gradually begun to nudge this high away. The evening remained mostly cloud free outside of some low level cumulus clouds to the south of the Lower Keys, and temperatures have been sitting in the lower 80s. Dew points have been in the lower 70s, with a few comments around town as to how it is starting to feel just a little bit muggy. The 00Z KKEY sounding from this evening shows a notable increase in moisture compared to 24 hours ago. The sounding from last night had a PWAT of 0.99" while the sounding tonight had a calculated value of 1.33". This moisture likely stems from a shift in wind direction. While we have been mostly variable at the surface, winds aloft have become southwest to westerly, bringing in moisture from the Gulf. High pressure has kept us stable enough to keep rain chances away, so a quiet radar should continue through the nighttime. It`s worth noting that there is a lot of "noise" on the KBYX radar tonight. There seems to be some ducting associated with the inversion noted on the sounding at approximately 815mb. GOES-19 Cloud Top shows some low level clouds in the same area as this "noise", but it doesn`t look like there is much in terms of shower activity happening. No changes are needed with these evening update. && .MARINE... Issued at 928 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. Light to gentle southeasterly breezes will become southerly during the overnight while briefly freshening and becoming modestly moderate. Breezes will return to a light and variable state over the course of Saturday afternoon. Rain and thunder chances are still expected to increase by Saturday night, and will peak on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 928 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period. Southeasterly surface winds will veer to the south and peak near 10 knots, but crosswind concerns are low due to the low magnitude of these winds. Weather conditions will remain dry, but chances for rain increase to 30 percent at the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 79 87 77 85 / 0 0 40 60 Marathon 79 86 78 84 / 0 0 30 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest