Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
945 FXUS62 KKEY 151842 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...New UPDATED KEY MESSAGES... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat will be the primary weather concern through the rest of the week, as indices will approach the mid to upper 100s during the afternoons. - A Saharan Air Layer will linger across the Keys this week, keeping rain and thunder chances slight at best. && .UPDATE... Issued at 240 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 The previous Coastal Flood Statement has been cancelled as water levels have fallen below critical values. Very isolated areas of ponding water may occur with the next high tide cycle, but impacts are not expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period with FEW clouds based near FL020. Some low level Saharan dust still lingering should keep shower and thunderstorm chances low, but late afternoon thunderstorms over the southern portion of the peninsula may cause a short lived shower or thunderstorm virtually anywhere across the area. Surface winds will generally remain out of the east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots, but any outflows coming off of the peninsula may cause winds to briefly become northeasterly. && .MARINE... Issued at 1145 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 There are no marine hazards in effect across the Florida Keys local waters, but there is a Coastal Flood Statement in effect through this afternoon across the Lower Keys. Mariners should be mindful of less clearance under fixed bridges around the time of high tide due to elevated water levels. Moderate easterly breezes will prevail through the next few days, occasionally becoming southeasterly. Wind speeds will peak during the overnight hours before slackening just a little bit during the afternoon. Saharan dust across the area will help to keep rain and thunder chances low, around 10 to 20 percent or a slight chance. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 444 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Mean layer ridging is expected to remain the dominant weather feature for the next several days. However, there will be a caveat to it. A TUTT cell will continue to slowly propagate northwestward through Friday. This will continue to provide the impetus needed to occasionally spark isolated showers and thunderstorms across the area. Slight chances are in the forecast as a result. Any activity will be capable of becoming strong, since we have plenty of instability, moisture, and trigger behind the TUTT cell moving through. Outside of any rain chances, the name of game will be the continued typical summer time Florida heat with highs near 90 degrees and overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s. This won`t provide much relief overnight from the heat during the day. Dew points are expected to remain in the mid to upper 70s through the period resulting in heat index values of 105 to 108 degrees at times with spotty 110s. Gentle to moderate NE-E breezes this morning are expected to slacken to light to gentle this afternoon and shift to the east to southeast. Breezes remain light to gentle for the next several days with occasional shifts to the northeast to east in the evenings and potentially variable for a time sometime Friday or Friday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 90 84 90 / 20 10 10 10 Marathon 83 90 83 90 / 20 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest