Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
210 FXUS62 KKEY 161908 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 308 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Low level moisture returns briefly tonight into Friday with slight higher rain chances. -Bouts of breezy conditions will commence late overnight into Friday, lasting through the early part of the weekend. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed for portions of the Florida Keys coastal waters overnight. -A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all of the Florida Keys island communities. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 1027 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A fairly quiet start to the Florida Keys. We have a lingering ongoing surge from earlier this morning pushing across the island chain. Winds along the marine platforms are generally around 15 knots from the north and northeast. Meanwhile, radar shows a narrow band of showers that developed along a convergence zone just off the southeast Florida coast. These showers are oriented nearly north to south and have been moving across our easternmost waters this morning. This line is beginning to break down as we lose that convergence. Made a small change to up winds across the coastal areas to account for the ongoing leftover surge. Otherwise, dry air will hold for today and limit rain chances to the offshore waters south of the island chain. Some low level moisture is moving down across the southwest North Atlantic and is progged to move in by the late afternoon but more likely closer to the evening. Slightly higher rain chances is the main result. Another nocturnal surge is expected tonight, followed by a general freshening breezes as high pressure builds across the eastern half of the U.S. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure sinking south over the eastern CONUS will keep shower coverage relatively low through Friday. Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will freshen to moderate to fresh as the pressure gradient tightens overnight into Friday. Shower coverage will increase Saturday night through Sunday night as a warm front and associated low pressure system moves through the region. Showers will be more likely across the waters south of the island chain. Drier air filters back in Monday leading to drier conditions and slackening breezes. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 301 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening. Watching for some showers to develop but coverage will be limited. Therefore, will omit mentions of VCSH for now. Otherwise, northeast to east winds have briefly slackened this afternoon and will freshen at or just after sunset and continue into Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 76 86 76 86 / 30 30 20 10 Marathon 76 84 76 84 / 30 30 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest