Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
145 FXUS62 KKEY 261410 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1010 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Satellite loop analysis places an upper-level low just off the Florida Space Coast at this late morning hour. The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled low-level weak southerly steering flow, relatively steep low-level lapse rates, along with zero inhibition. Despite the weak steering, plenty of mesoscale-driven boundary collisions, combined with the lack of inhibition and the upper-level divergence, have produced scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and north of the Middle and Upper Keys and in the southeastern Gulf. Outside of any rain-cooled communities, temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 80s. For the balance of today, very active weather should continue for the next several hours, initially in the vicinity of the Middle and Upper Keys. The lack of convection across the Lower Keys this morning, combined with the nebulous flow, should support the activation of an island cloud line by early afternoon. This cloud line, should it indeed form, would have ample opportunity to get quite active as it interacts with residual boundaries, leading to decent storms for the Lower Keys. Given this synopsis, elected to raise rain and thunder chances earlier this morning for the first period. No other changes proposed at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through at least the early afternoon hours across the Florida Keys, before a lull is likely. Despite light to gentle southeasterly flow outside of storms, winds will be locally gusty and seas confused in any stronger thunderstorm. From synopsis, an upper level low east of the Florida Peninsula will lift northward and weaken by Friday. Until it does, enhanced rain and thunder chances are expected across the Keys marine zones. Broad surface ridging will rebuild over the Atlantic and support gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys waters. A Saharan Air Layer will limit shower coverage over the weekend, but bursts of showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue to flourish through at least 18z at both terminals. Bouts of MVFR CIGs, along with IFR visibilities and gusty winds, will be possible with any stronger TS. Conditions should gradually improve for the later TAF period, although confidence is a bit low at this time. Outside of any storm, near-surface winds will remain generally out of the southeast at 5 to 8 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 82 92 83 / 60 40 30 20 Marathon 88 82 89 83 / 60 40 30 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest