Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
493 FXUS62 KKEY 250210 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1010 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms in association with an easterly wave will gradually decrease through the day. - Heat indices may approach 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon for some Florida Keys island communities, especially in the Upper Keys. - A trough is expected to develop and sit along the eastern and southeast U.S., which may result in an active weather pattern early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1003 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 It has been an eventful evening across the lower Florida Keys as a visually impressive waterspout formed north of Stock Island and lasted for nearly 20 minutes in duration. The waterspout was the result of the formation of a cloud line, which developed just northwest of the Lower Keys. Repeated rounds of showers and storms formed in the vicinity of this feature and boundary collisions ultimately supplied the necessary ground-level wind shear for the non-mesocyclonic vortex to thrive. Since the occurence of the waterspout, the cloud line has weakened but recent KBYX radar imagery shows scattered showers and occasional storms drifting to the WNW across most of the region at this time. While this activity should generally persist through the remainder of the evening and overnight hours amid the southeasterly flow regime, there should also be lulls with any remaining activity expected to be short-lived in nature and mainly sub-severe limits given limited forcing for ascent aloft. Otherwise, surface winds will remain mostly out of the southeast this evening but will gradually become weaker and more variable as a split ridge pattern develops between surface high pressure in the northern Gulf Coast and high pressure in the North Atlantic with these features split by a quasi-stationary frontal boundary across the Southeast US. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 80s with partly cloudy skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 1003 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. In the wake of the easterly wave that moved through the region earlier, a col will develop across the region tonight through Saturday, leading to a brief period of light and variable winds. Thereafter, breezes will freshen to gentle breezes and back to the west to northwest as a surface trough develops Sunday. Breezes will return from the southwest and west as the trough moves east of the Florida Peninsula early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1003 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Generally VFR conditions will prevail at both Island Chain terminals throughout the TAF period as ESE winds overnight around 5-10 kts becoming light/VRB by Saturday afternoon. While scattered SHRA and occasional TSRA may move across the region overnight into early Saturday, this precipitation activity should be light with minimal flight restriction expected at this time. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...RG Aviation/Nowcasts....RG Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest