Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
362 FXUS62 KKEY 130900 CCA AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Key West FL 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Slight rain chances expected for the next several days, as dry air dominates the Florida Keys. -A taste of Fall continues for much of the week, as humidity levels will be below normal. -A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. The Coastal Flood Advisory has been canceled for these island communities, as water levels have decreased below the advisory criteria. -A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Florida Keys. Little relief in coastal flooding is expected, even outside the times of high tide. -Newly formed Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic will NOT be a threat to the Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 A deep upper level trough remain entrenched across the eastern United States with this trough extending southward into Florida and the Gulf. On either side of this trough are two deep mean layer ridges with one centered across the south-central United States and the other one over the Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles. KBYX radar has not detected showers for the first few hours overnight. However, in the last hour or so, showers have now begun to percolate over the distant Straits of Florida. GOES East Nighttime Microphysics shows a camaraderie of low to mid level clouds throughout the region leading to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures remain comfortable along the Island Chain in the mid to upper 70s and dew points are in the lower to mid 70s. High pressure is beginning to build in across the North Gulf Coast. This is promoting mainly north to northeast breezes near 5 knots at marine platforms surrounding the Keys. .FORECAST... A quieter weather pattern will remain through the Keys for next several days as dry air dominates the region. However, the moisture will not be far away with the Straits of Florida already seeing showers developing again early this morning. Model guidance is disagreeing on how much of this moisture makes it back to the north to affect the Island Chain. Therefore, this is lending to a low to average confidence in the forecast, even though it is within the next 6 to 24 hours. Some of this moisture is anticipated to creep back northward for overnight and Tuesday resulting in a slight uptick back to 20%, though some guidance suggests higher than that as previously alluded to. Another boundary moves through the Keys late Tuesday/Tuesday night which will usher in even drier air resulting in a period of PoPs at 10%. In addition, north to northeasterly breezes are expected to freshen this week as high pressure builds in from the north. Breezes will further shift to mainly northeasterly for much of the week peaking overnight and in the morning and lulling in the afternoon. Moisture will increase a little bit for late week into next weekend as the flow begins to shift more east to southeast. Rain chances creep back up a little bit to 20% as a result. Also, a breezy period is possible as we get to the end of the week and into the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Winds will mostly remain out of the northeast to east. Other than that, this week looks to feature highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 70s along with more comfortable humidity than we have dealt with as of late. It appears fall may be here to stay at least for this week. Dew points may even drop into the mid to upper 60s towards mid week! Stay tuned! && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, low pressure departs the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coastline today. High pressure builds in behind it across much of the eastern United States. This will promote peaking and lulling mainly northeasterly breezes through much of the period. Breezes will peak mostly during the late evenings to mornings and lull in the afternoons. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period given overall dry conditions abounding. Light north winds veer to the northeast through the morning, becoming near 10 knots by midday. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1879, the daily record rainfall of 4.22" was recorded at Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 77 85 77 / 10 20 20 10 Marathon 86 77 86 76 / 10 20 20 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MC Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest