842
FXUS62 KKEY 212012
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
312 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
It has been a pretty gloomy and cooler day along the Florida Keys.
Unlike most of the peninsula, our cloud coverage was not able to
break up enough to allow for substantial sunshine. Conditions
between this morning and this afternoon haven`t seen much change.
At the time we`re typing this, temperatures are in the upper 60s,
and moderate northeasterly breezes are still prevailing. If there
is a silver lining, our KBYX radar only shows a line of light
showers in the distant Straits. With the northeasterly flow, these
showers should stay just offshore of the island chain, so we took
out PoPs for tonight.

Over the weekend, we will see the current pattern give way to weak
high pressure. This will give our breezes the opportunity to
diminish rapidly as they turn around the compass. With the
persistent low level cloud cover, afternoon highs will likely sit
somewhere in the mid 70s, but drier air aloft may help to mix out
some of the cloud cover. Our eyes are still locked on the Sunday
night through Tuesday timeframe. As mentioned in previous
discussions, this looks like the best chance for a Gulf low to
cross Florida, and bring much better chances for rainfall. There
is still some gray area with respect to timing, as well as
rainfall amounts, but this set up is one that will usher in plenty
of moisture. After Tuesday, the low will lift out of our area and significantly
drier air will filter in, finally offering us substantially more
sunshine.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys waters.
From synopsis, fresh to occasionally strong northeasterly breezes
will continue across the Keys local waters through tonight.
Strong surface high pressure will traverse across the eastern
United States Saturday and Saturday night, maintaining moderate to
fresh easterly breezes. As the high moves offshore into the
western North Atlantic, another weaker high will take it place
across the Southeastern United States resulting in slackening
breezes. An area of weak low pressure is expected to develop over
the northwestern Gulf Sunday and Sunday night. As the low moves
east, the potential exists for varying breezes, especially Monday
with northwest to north breezes anticipated Monday night through
Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
VFR conditions will prevail for the TAF period at both terminals.
That said, obs and satellite imagery do show persistent CIGs at
around FL040, so with the expected veering winds potentially
increasing low-level moisture, lowering of CIGs to MVFR range is
possible. Confidence in this is low enough to omit mention in the
TAFs at this time. Winds from the north to northeast will gradually
veer to the east through the period and remain gusty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  69  75  70  77 /  10  10  20  20
Marathon  69  76  70  77 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....MC
Data Acquisition.....MC

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