Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
467 FXUS62 KKEY 120335 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1035 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Very cool conditions persist in wake of yesterday`s cold blast. Much cooler temperatures along with breezy/windy conditions will linger overnight. -Temperatures expected to return to slightly below normal by the end of the week as high pressure, centered over the northeastern Gulf coast, weakens and stretches eastward into the Atlantic. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 805 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025 Very cool and breezy to windy conditions remain across the Keys late this evening in wake of yesterday`s banger cold front. These fresh north to northeasterly breezes are being driven by a fairly strong sizable surface high centered over the northeastern Gulf Coast. Temperatures have gone nowhere this evening and remain in the lower 60s. Dew points have rebounded some and are now in the lower 50s. Needless to say, the environment is stable with this evenings sounding indicating a very strong frontal inversion based around 900 mb. Most of the island chain is stratocumulus free. However, sheaves of thin cirrus covers much of the area. Two competing factors will drive conditions through the overnight. The previously mentioned high is expected to shift east southeastward overnight, while also building out into the Atlantic. This shift will want to result in winds slackening some and shifting further northeasterly. However, the HRRR indicates winds will remain backed north northeasterly with a subtle nocturnal surge bolstering wind speeds. Recent observations of just over 20 knots at Long Key and Alligator Reef Light suggest the HRRR might have the better handle on the situation. An additional factor in support of this is the dramatic cool down of 20 to 25 F across Florida Bay waters into the mid 60s in wake of the cold front. At some point, winds should relent, but it may be quite late in the night or even early tomorrow before this occurs. Expect temperatures remain stable and broadly in the lower 60s with dew points remaining in the lower to mid 50s. && .MARINE... Issued at 805 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025 A broad and robust surface high centered over the northeastern Gulf Coast is expected to steadily shift eastward into the Atlantic overnight. As a result, winds will attempt to shift further northeasterly. However, mesoscale models suggest winds will remain backed north to northeast due to the development of a nocturnal flow emanating off of the mainland. While winds have trended downwards through the afternoon and evening for most locations, they are likely to surge at some point overnight. Winds will ultimately veer northeast and slacken modestly, but this may have to wait until late tonight or early tomorrow. Hence, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Keys waters. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 805 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025 VFR conditions will prevail overnight at the island terminals. Moderate to fresh north to northeasterly breezes will result in some crosswinds at our runways. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest