Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
391 FXUS62 KKEY 310947 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 447 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 445 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025 A somewhat muggy early morning is underway across the Keys as current weather conditions have been more or less stagnant over the last several hours. Deep layer ridging continues to dominate our sensible weather with subsidence and dry air aloft inhibiting any shower development. KBYX radar may be free of any meteorological echoes, but that doesn`t mean there isn`t any moisture in the air as dewpoints along the island chain have crept up into the mid to upper 60s. Combining these dewpoints with overnight lows still stuck in the lower 70s has resulted in stickier conditions outside than 24 hours ago. Moderate to fresh east to southeasterly breezes observed along the Reef are slightly higher than originally expected and have contributed to restricting radiational cooling over land this morning. There`s some movement in the synoptic pattern expected in the short term with minor changes to our sensible weather as a result. While upper level ridging will continue to dominate the Caribbean, the surface high off the east coast of CONUS will continue to drift east into the western North Atlantic as a progressive mid latitude system shifts northeast into the Ohio River Valley. As the high pulls away, breezes will slacken through tonight and Saturday. With some of the high`s influence lingering around with an anticylonic wind field and model soundings still noting dry air aloft, PoPs will remain near nil in the short term. While the system passing through the Ohio river valley is expected to be potent, it will pass well to our north with the associated cold front progged to stall somewhere over the Florida Peninsula. As guidance currently expects the front to stay north the Keys, conditions aren`t expected to change drastically in the extended forecast. Increased mid level moisture drawn in by both the stalled front and high pressure building in along the Eastern Seaboard behind the frontal passage will allow for cloudier conditions to start the work week. This will help keep temperatures tamped down ideally below the 80 degree mark but is not expected to pull up PoPs with how shallow the advected moisture layer is forecast to be. By the midweek, high pressure fully reestablished over southeast CONUS may promote breezy conditions for the Keys, but we`ll just have to see how it looks after this weekend for more confidence. && .MARINE... Issued at 445 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys, however Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida until winds subside. From synopsis, a surface high off the coast of the Eastern Seaboard will promote moderate to fresh breezes early Friday morning across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. As this high is pushed east into the western North Atlantic, breezes will slacken throughout Friday night and Saturday. Breezes will then shift to the northeast to east as a deep layer trough migrates northeast through the Ohio River Valley. High pressure will once again build in over the Eastern Seaboard by the start of the work week allowing breezes to gradually freshen and veer back to the east. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025 VFR conditions will continue to prevail at EYW and MTH for the TAF period. Winds will persist from the east to southeast through the period, with speeds remaining around 10 knots with an occasional gust. && .CLIMATE... In 1983, Key West experienced its wettest January ever with 17.64" of rain recorded. Despite being in the heart of the climatological dry season, this is the seventh wettest month overall on record for Key West, with more than twice as much rain as the next wettest January. Similarly, in the same year Marathon experienced its wettest January ever with 16.76" of rain recorded. This is the fourth wettest month overall on record for Marathon, with almost double the rain of the next wettest January on record. Precipitation records extend back to 1871 for Key West and 1950 for Marathon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 76 69 77 67 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 77 70 79 69 / 0 10 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....MC Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest