635
FXUS62 KKEY 031551
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1151 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1150 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Today marks the start of a wet and messy pattern for weekend in
the Florida Keys. Before sunrise this morning, a broken line of
scattered showers with a couple embedded thunderstorms developed
south of the Upper and Middle Keys before moving west towards the
island chain. While this activity continued to wax and wane on its
approach, a few showers were able to cross the Keys with MRMS 6
hour estimates averaging around a few tenths of an inch where rain
fell. The local maximum is over Boca Chica at just over half an
inch. More showers continue to develop behind the initial line but
are struggling to organize into thunderstorms. Meanwhile,
easterly breezes have become fresh along our offshore observation
stations. That along with partly to mostly cloudy skies has kept
temperatures in the lower 80s with some values in the upper 70s
where rain is either falling or freshly fell.

High pressure reaching down along the Eastern Seaboard is our main
supplier of easterly breezes. This accelerated flow is promoting
plenty of convergence for further development of shallow showers
in our waters. But why are they just shallow and not a bunch of
towering thunderstorms? This morning`s KKEY 12z sounding seems to
hold the answer as it depicts a solid layer of dry air starting
just above 700 mb. While a few overachievers have made it high
enough to throw some thunderbolts, they deteriorated rather
quickly afterwards. Thus chance to likely PoPs continue to look
appropriate along with a slight chance of thunder in the short
term. Tonight, guidance aims to moisten up more of the atmosphere
as a wave traverses over the Bahamas into our waters. This influx
of cyclonic flow will keep PoPs elevated but also slacken and veer
breezes as it traverses over our area tomorrow. Still plenty of
uncertainty in the forecast as we deal with smaller scale
features, but things are mostly in line with what was originally
expected so far. Stay tuned...

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1150 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in all coastal waters of the
Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure is slowly moving
across the eastern U.S., which will maintain a northeast wind
across our waters. This high will build into the western North
Atlantic, leading to freshening northeast to east breezes into
Friday evening. Winds will then briefly clock around towards the
southeast for the upcoming weekend and return from the east early
next week. Another period of moderate to fresh breezes is possible
starting Monday night. Expect an active weather pattern with
winds and seas expected to be higher in and around thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH today.
VCSH continues to be included at both terminals as scattered
showers wax and wane along the island chain. Short term amendments
will cover immediate impacts which are expected to be MVFR CIGs
and MVFR to IFR VIS with some gusty winds. Outside of convection,
near surface winds will be generally out of the northeast to east
at near 10 knots with frequent gusts to 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys Weather History, both set in the year 2000, the
daily record rainfall of 3.52" was recorded in Key West while 3.10"
was recorded in Marathon. Rainfall data for Key West dates back to
1871 and June 1950 for Marathon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  87  77  88  79 /  40  40  30  40
Marathon  86  77  86  79 /  50  40  30  50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ076.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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