062
FXUS62 KKEY 171737 AAA
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Key West FL
137 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light to gentle mainly variable breezes are expected throughout
  the Florida Keys coastal waters today.

- Heat will be the primary weather concern through the rest of the
  week as indices may approach 108 to 110 degrees in the afternoon
  for portions of the island chain.

- Rounds of Saharan Air Layer will continue to stream across our
  area this week into next week, keeping rain and thunder chances
  slight at best.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026
Water vapor and CIMSS mean layer imagery highlight a large ridge
complex covering the southern Plains, the western Gulf, and the
western North Atlantic. An upper level low over the Keys sticks
out like a sore thumb, not to overshadow the mature complex of
thunderstorms that spread southwest from near Tampa Bay this
morning. These storms initiated along the southwestern flank of a
stalled surface trough. The potent cold pool spreading south from
the original complex continues to fire storms across the
southeastern Gulf, although dry air analyzed by SPC`s lower
tropospheric maps continues to attack the vigor of these storms.

New storms will continue to fire near Tampa along developing
lower tropospheric cyclonic curvature (see 925, 850, 700 mb
CIMSS). Meanwhile, the upper level low near the Keys will continue
to pivot northward into Southwest Florida. Despite the light
northeasterly flow sampled by the 12Z KKEY RAOB, the lack of low
level moisture will squelch any afternoon cloudlines. Later this
afternoon, weak southeasterly steering may resume which could lead
to isolated coverage along the island chain. All this to say, the
Keys will stay out of the action today, although another attempt
at cold pool initiated storms could spread southward overnight
along the Gulf coastal shelf. The inherited forecast calls for
slight chances (10%) through the afternoon. We find no reason for
an update to the digital and derived forecast elements. The heat
is on, remember to stay hydrated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026
A weak surface trough near the northeastern Gulf and northern
Florida will maintain a split ridge pattern across Florida for the
next several days. The Keys will either be within a col region
south of the broad surface trough, or within the southern quadrant
of the trough. Thus, breezes across the Florida Keys will be
variable at times, or take on a southerly component. Our forecast
takes the middle ground and is an average of the two scenarios.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026
VFR and variable breezes will prevail through the evening, with
breezes eventually turning to the southeast overnight.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR
Data Acquisition.....RG

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