Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
747 FXUS62 KKEY 231545 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1045 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1045 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025 It is a gorgeous Sunday morning across the Florida Keys! KBYX radar is free of any precipitable echoes, though a thin broken band of low reflectivity is detected south of the island chain from Ocean Reef all the way to the distant Straits of Florida south of the Dry Tortugas. Visible satellite imagery helps identify this feature as a line of clouds representing a convergence boundary where northeasterly meet more northerly leaning breezes. This is supported by wind observations along the Reef with east northeast winds near the Lower Keys and north northeast winds near the south edge of the Upper Keys. This morning`s KMFL sounding notes weak backing low level flow and a substantial layer of dry air above 825 mb suppressing development of any convection. Mostly clear skies have allowed temperatures to quickly jump up to the lower to mid 70s after upper 60s were observed shortly after sunrise. The next 24 hours or so will serve as a literal calm before the storm. Convection associated with a developing surface low continues to churn in the northwest Gulf south of Louisiana. An upper level trough currently around the Ark-La-Tex area will sync with this low before becoming enhanced by an upper level shortwave sliding in from the west. While this trouble brews, high pressure across the southeast CONUS will maintain gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys and its coastal waters. Weakly anticyclonic flow along with the previously mentioned dry air aloft will keep PoPs near nil today with mostly clear skies. Temperatures will continue to rise with highs in the upper 70s this afternoon with lows later tonight near 70. Rain chances will not start to increase until tomorrow afternoon when the currently developing frontal system in the Gulf shifts east allowing a prefrontal mass of showers and thunderstorms to rake across South Florida. && .MARINE... Issued at 1045 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a weak high will slide east across the Southeastern United States today, resulting in gentle to moderate breezes. An area of weak low pressure is expected to develop over the northwestern Gulf later today and tonight. As the low moves east, the potential exists for varying breezes, especially Monday with northwest to north breezes anticipated Tuesday and Tuesday night. The threat for thunderstorms is increasing, especially Monday afternoon and night. Winds and seas will be higher in and around thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals into the overnight. Northeasterly winds will veer to the east this afternoon, before beginning to veer to the east-southeast closer to the end of the TAF period tomorrow morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 78 71 80 69 / 0 10 90 80 Marathon 77 71 79 68 / 10 10 80 90 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....MC Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest