016
FXUS62 KKEY 050226
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1026 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1025 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Unsettled, humid weather
continued across the Florida Keys in the afternoon and evening
with occasional showers across the Middle and Lower Keys. Radar
scans detect isolated showers across the Outer Gulf and Florida
Straits. Mostly cloudy skies persist due to a combination of mid-
level cloud debris lifting north across the Keys and upper-
altitude cirrus drifting south from convection in the northern
Gulf. Temperatures across the island chain were able to warm to
near 90 with gentle to moderate east southeasterly breezes. In
spite of an environment primed for convection, MLCAPE above 1000
J/kg with minimal CIN and a PW value well above the 90th
percentile, shower coverage is sparse over the Straits at this
time. Only a couple of showers developed into more robust
thunderstorms in the outer Gulf, suggesting that despite a
significant amount of instability there is not a consistent source
of lift over the Florida Keys.

Overnight, upper level ridging will continue to keep shower
coverage limited across the Keys. PoPs remain at 50% across the
island chain to represent the unstable atmosphere and excessive
amount of moisture conflicting with the sinking air aloft.
EYW is on track for another tied warm low record with dew points
in the upper 70s. Increased winds across the nearshore waters
based on current observations, but otherwise made no changes to
the inherited forecast.

Looking further out, weather conditions for the Florida Keys will
be dominated by the developing Invest 92L, located in the Bay of
Campeche. Currently, potential impacts to the Florida Keys are
locally heavy rainfall of 4-6 inches with isolated totals over 8
inches through Wednesday, Thundery squalls on Monday night and
Tuesday, and potential for Gulfside coastal flooding by the middle
of the week.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1025 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Florida Keys.
Elevated seasonal tides along with back up of the Gulf Stream due
to an area of low pressure near Bermuda will result in minor
saltwater flooding. The minor flooding will be most noticeable
around the times of high tide in the Lower and Middle Keys, with
little relief outside of high tides in the Upper Keys.

No changes were made for the evening update. Uncertainty in the
marine forecast is primarily due to the effects of a low pressure
system designated 92L located in the Gulf of Mexico. From
synopsis, gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will
continue tonight through the weekend, as a broad area of low
pressure and a weak frontal boundary fester in the Gulf of Mexico.
The low pressure system is expected to slowly organize over the
Gulf, possibly into a tropical cyclone by early next week.
Regardless of development, an extended period of above normal rain
and thunder chances along with freshening breezes are expected
for early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the
upcoming TAF period. Isolated to scattered showers will wax and
wane over the nearshore waters surrounding the island terminals,
and the atmosphere remains very moist. Prevailing VCSH were left
in the TAFs due to uncertainty in location and duration of showers
given the high amount of moisture. Near surface winds will remain
easterly to southeasterly near 10 knots with gusts to 25 knots
near showers.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....Jacobson

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