Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
079 FXUS62 KKEY 120940 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 540 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 540 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 What was a very active late night, especially over the distant Straits of Florida, has simmered down with only a few stray showers along boundaries left in the deep Gulf and distant Straits. Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Along the Reef, marine locations are recording east to southeast winds at 10 to 15 knots. For today, CAMs suggests another round of convection nearing the island chain around 18z and thereafter tapering off. MIMIC Precipitable water does show some dry air moving east into the area so this could help limit further development later today. Gentle to moderate breezes will become light to gentle later this afternoon into tonight staying in the east to southeasterly direction. Starting next week, the pattern will shift as another easterly disturbance moves towards our region. At this time, model guidance is suggesting that our current advertised PoPs are too low but due to less confidence on strength of the wave and moisture associated are leaving PoPs at a chance until it becomes more clear. Breezes are expected to collapse to light and variable at times through Tuesday before another high pressure builds in freshening breezes to gentle to moderate once again. && .MARINE... Issued at 540 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, outflow boundaries will surge across the Florida Keys coastal waters early this morning. These boundaries will produce sudden, gusty, erratic winds. Outside of these boundaries, sprawling high pressure in the North Atlantic will support light to gentle east to southeast breezes through early next week. Near- normal rain and thunder chances are expected through the weekend. A disturbance off the Southeast is expected to dive southwestward towards the Florida Peninsula for early next week, supporting bouts of increased storm chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through the TAF period with occasional periods of MVFR CIGs. Some guidance was showing showers and thunderstorms possible at the terminals as early as 12/09z which is what is currently in the TAF. However, latest guidance suggests this timing being delayed which may result in a TAF amendment at 12/09z to delay the onset of showers and thunderstorms. Any showers and storms will be capable of reducing VIS and CIGs to MVFR conditions, heavy downpours, and occasional lightning strikes. Near surface winds will remain east to southeast between 8 to 14 knots with higher gusts in and near convection. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record warm low temperature of 87F was recorded. This is also tied for the warmest low temperature ever recorded in July for the Key West area. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest