055
FXUS62 KKEY 281754
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1254 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Slightly cooler temperatures and dew points after yesterday`s
 cold frontal passage.

-An extended period of breezy to windy conditions and drier air
 is expected through the upcoming weekend.

-Small Craft Advisories conditions are expected through the
 beginning of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
VFR conditions prevail for EYW and MTH through the 18Z TAF
period. Expect brief periods of MVFR CIGs as low level stratus
clouds form and dissipate between FL028 and FL035 with greater
cloud coverage at MTH. Winds will begin to decrease slightly near
the end of the TAF period while veering northeasterly. Northerly
crosswinds in excess of 20 knots are expected throughout the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1010 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys waters.
From synopsis, a cold front across the area will maintain fresh to
strong north to northeasterly breezes, and Small Craft Advisories
will likely extend through Saturday night. As the front decays,
breezes will slacken over the beginning of the new week. Another
cold front may be on the horizon for the middle of the week,
reflected in the breezes turning around the clock ahead of it.
Shower activity will wax and wane throughout the marine forecast
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1010 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
The last Friday of November opened with cooler temperatures and
windy conditions across the Florida Keys. A rapidly moving cold
front passed over the island chain yesterday, and brought a burst
of 25 knot sustained winds, dew points in the 50s, and layers of
stratus clouds across the eastern waters. The morning KKEY
sounding sampled an environment with less than an inch of PWAT and
multiple inversions, so weather across the Keys has a near nil
chance of rain. Eagle- eyed observers may be able to see shower
and a thunderstorm highlighted by the KBYX radar off to the
southeast along the lingering frontal boundary, but those storms
are beyond our CWA. Temperatures along the island chain are on
track to reach the mid 70s, so at least for this front residents
probably will not need to bring out heaters.

High pressure over the eastern CONUS will keep breezes fresh to
strong across the nearshore and offshore waters. Windy conditions
are expected to persist across the island chain through tomorrow
morning, so make sure to take any necessary precautions. For
today, enjoy the dry conditions, blustery winds, and lack of
snowfall. Other parts of the country are set to experience heavy
winter weather, so it could always be colder.

&&

.FORECAST...
Issued at 520 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
The overall pattern has been progressive, but now the the front
is at a lower latitude we will see it linger momentarily before it
decays. A surface high tracking eastward across the central
eastern U.S. will clock breezes to the northeast, and bring
another push of elevated winds. Even though the magnitude is very
close to what we are currently experiencing, the speed convergence
will provide some lift for additional shower activity,
particularly Saturday night. Confidence in lightning is low, so
opting to keep thunder out for now, but this can be reevaluated
for any of the package updates later today. As the pressure
gradient gradually slackens, breezes will follow suit, and weather
will feel calmer for the start of the new week.

Global guidance is already hinting at another frontal passage by
the middle of next week, but its too far out to confidently hone
in on the impact on sensible weather. Since the pattern has been
so progressive, it isnt out of the ordinary to see one front so
soon after another.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1903, the daily record cold high temperature of 61F was recorded.
This is also tied for the coldest high temperature ever recorded in
November. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  67  78  71  82 /   0  30  40  30
Marathon  69  76  73  81 /   0  30  40  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest