Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
638 FXUS62 KKEY 051813 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 113 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Breezes will gradually slacken through the upcoming weekend. -Near nil rain chances through the first half of the weekend. -Moisture increasing Saturday night through Monday ahead of a possible frontal system early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Near nil rain chances are expected through this evening therefore no mention of VCSH necessary. Near surface winds will be southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 Another quiet overnight for the Florida Keys. A high pressure that is out across the southwestern North Atlantic has allow winds to gradually become east to southeast this morning. Relatively dry air remains in place and as such KBYX radar does not detect any precipitation near us. Unfortunately, the easterly flow has kept dew points in the lower 70s. This combined with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s is making it quite sticky for early December. Going forward today, the aforementioned high will continue to slide east across the Atlantic. At the same time, a coastal trough off the Carolina Coast will develop into a surface low later this morning and afternoon. The combination of the retreating high and developing low will result in breezes slackening this afternoon and through the weekend. Despite this surface feature taking shape, the mid and upper levels across the Florida Peninsula will continue to be dominated by strong ridging. This will not allow any southward movement of this front and instead stall it along the north Gulf Coast and Southeast U.S. through Sunday. Thereafter, a potent upper level trough will sweep through the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, helping to drive a pair of strong surface low and high across the eastern half of the U.S. This will result in the stalled front getting shoved with haste towards the Florida Keys by Monday night. We expect a brief surge in northerly breezes as this feature sweeps through. Before this front arrives, moisture will be gradually increasing across the region starting Saturday night. This will allow for slight chances to return and then peak just ahead and along the frontal passage Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures may fall a few degrees behind the front but not expecting anything to really write home about. && .MARINE... Issued at 1135 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a high pressure system over the southwestern North Atlantic will slide east, while a coastal low pressure takes shape off the Carolina`s Coast today. This will lead to a weakening pressure gradient across the area with slackening breezes through the upcoming weekend. Thereafter, a developing weather system will move out of the Central Plains and into the Southeast U.S. by Sunday evening. The attendent cold front will sweep through Monday night with a brief period of moderate to fresh breezes. Shower coverage will steadily increase starting Saturday evening and continuing into early next week. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest