Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
845 FXUS62 KKEY 080841 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 441 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Chances for rainfall remain elevated, between 60% and 70%, over the next few days as an unsettled pattern remains in place. -A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys. The combination of the current King Tide cycle and persistent rainfall will encourage additional flooding over roadways and low lying lots. -Drier air will filter in over the weekend, and offer the first taste of the Fall season to the Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 There hasn`t been too much excitement on the overnight shift as showers have gradually waned over the past few hours. Surface observations are showing current temperatures in the lower 80s, and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Based on the condensation on the windows, we imagine it feels a little bit on the muggy side of things outside. GOES-19 Cloud Top shows a lot of the mid and upper level cloud cover decreasing as well, but there is a patch of lower clouds just to the north of the island chain. This means that our atmosphere will have a chance to recharge after sunrise, providing more instability for another round of showers and thunderstorms later. For today, we have nudged PoPs up to 60 percent, but breaks in between pushes of activity may give the illusion that this probability is a little high. Over the next few days. this non tropical low will slowly drag across our forecast area. CIMSS Vorticity shows stacked energy through the low and mid levels, and this will be the lifting mechanism. Therefore, we will keep PoPs fluctuating between 60 and 70 percent through Friday night. Any shower could build enough to be a thunderstorm, but overall thunderstorm coverage should be isolated, or slight chance. Global model forecast soundings look a little too wet to support significant thunderstorm coverage. Due to the scattered nature of these showers, it is difficult to narrow in on rainfall amounts. The takeaway is that these showers are coinciding with the King Tide Cycle, and localized flooding could be exacerbated if heavy showers move through during high tide. A deepening trough over the southeastern U.S. will push a frontal boundary down the peninsula, and there is still some question as to where the front ends up. Current guidance suggests we will feel the effects of a prefrontal boundary over the weekend, and dew points may approach the 70s degree mark. Regardless of the numbers, this may be the Keys first taste of Fall-like weather. && .MARINE... Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 There are no marine watches, warnings, or advisories in effect, but mariners may encounter lower clearance under fixed bridges due to higher tides. From synopsis, an unsettled pattern is in place, and will maintain above normal rain chances through the next few days. The lax gradient will keep winds near gentle to moderate over the next few days, but a brief freshening in the deep Gulf waters will happen as a frontal boundary approaches the area toward the weekend. Hazardous conditions don`t look very likely at this time as breezes max out near moderate speeds, but a northerly swell in western and eastern poritons of our local waters will lead to elevated seas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 VFR conditions will largely prevail at both terminals through the TAF period. However, similar to yesterday, intermittent showers or a thunderstorm are anticipated throughout the period. Any showers or storm will be capable of reducing CIGs and VIS to MVFR as well as produce gusty winds. Near surface winds will mainly be northeast to east between 5 to 12 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1996, the daily record rainfall of 2.36" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. In 1953, the daily record rainfall of 2.45" was recorded in Marathon. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to June 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 78 87 77 / 60 60 60 70 Marathon 87 78 86 77 / 60 60 60 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest