Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
442 FXUS62 KKEY 220232 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1032 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 An Atlantic ridge has been nudged southward across South Florida due to troughing taking shape along the Atlantic Coast. As a result, winds have relaxed further and are now light out of the east to southeast. A lower level high that used to be aligned across Florida a few days ago has shifted further westward along the Gulf Coast. This has allowed deep layered moisture to creep upwards. This evenings sounding indicated precipitable water has climbed further to 1.76 inches, which is very near normal. As has been the case for a number of days now, lower level CAPE remains limited, but overall CAPE is healthy. Surface dew points in the mid 70s are also modest for this time of year. As a result, convective activity near the island chain was relegated primarily to a round of early afternoon cloud line buildup in the Lower and Middle Keys. More recently, scattered clusters of showers and thunderstorms have percolated along confluence bands and outflow boundaries moving off of South Florida into our deep Gulf zones. Winds in the Keys will remain light out of the east to southeast through the overnight period due to the nearby Atlantic ridge. No significant change is expected regarding the synoptic pattern in our area. Forecast soundings suggest precipitable water will hold steady, as will weak lower level inhibition. As a result, despite the scattered activity in our Gulf zones, rain chances in the Keys should remain slight. Overnight lows will range in the lower to mid 80s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Troughing that setup along the Atlantic Coast has nudged an Atlantic ridge southward into South Florida and the Keys. As a result, winds are rather light out of the east to southeast on Keys waters this evening. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. Surface winds will be light out of the southeast. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest