Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
668 FXUS62 KKEY 231533 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1033 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Deep layered ridging will ride eastward across our area over the next couple of days, keeping rain chances out of the forecast in the short term. -A broad continental high will push eastward into the eastern United States early next week, resulting in moderately strengthening breezes and slight rain chances early to mid week. -Probability is increasing that a cold front will push into the Keys region early Friday. Only a modest amount of cooling is expected from the current near to slightly above normal temperatures in the wake of the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1022 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 Surface analysis places a weak frontal boundary stretching from the Gulf coast northeastward to the central North Atlantic. Closer to home, high pressure centered in the vicinity of the Bahamas continues to dominate the synoptic pattern for the Florida Keys. The 12z morning sounding at KEY continued to sample a very dry and stable tropospheric profile, with dismal lapse rates and tremendous dry air associated with ridging above the 850 mb isobaric surface. Skies are mostly clear across the Keys, with temperatures quickly warming into the upper 70s at this late morning hour. The forecast calls for bountiful sunshine, nil rain chances, and highs at or just above 80F. No changes proposed to what has been an extended persistence forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1022 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light, predominantly northeasterly breezes will linger this afternoon into tomorrow due to weak ridging across Florida. A continental high will push in to the eastern United States early this week, resulting in freshening northeast to easterly breezes. This high will progress eastward into the Atlantic, and after mid week, breezes should collapse as the pressure field becomes nebulous. Probability is increasing that a cold front will push southward through Keys coastal waters very late in the forecast, resulting in what appears to be the start of a prolonged period of fresh northeast to easterly breezes. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 12z Monday morning, with northeast surface winds 5 to 10 knots. Skies will remain mostly clear with only FEW clouds near FL030, with nil rain chances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 71 82 73 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 80 72 81 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest