Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
242 FXUS62 KKEY 010754 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 354 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will prevail through the weekend. -Gradual warming trend expected over the weekend. -A Coastal Flood Statement (level 1 of 3) is in effect for the Upper Keys. -Next cold front sweeps through on Monday with another round of breezy conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 354 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 It has been a quiet overnight for the Florida Keys. KBYX radar does show that a narrow area of convergence lies across the outer Straits. Across these waters, isolated showers have been waxing and waning overnight but not making much progress in any one direction. Meanwhile, high pressure is moving across the eastern half of the U.S. and beginning to settle in across the Eastern Seaboard. This has maintained light northeast winds across the area for the early part of the overnight. Recently, winds have begun to gradually surge off the mainland and speeds are generally around 10 knots across the marine platforms. For today, the aforementioned high pressure will briefly stall along the East Coast through the weekend. This will maintain gentle to occasional moderate northeast breezes across the island chain and surrounding coastal waters. Lurking upstream is a bowling ball of an upper level low situated across the Northern Plains. This feature will dive southeast over the next 24 to 48 hours towards the north Gulf Coast. In addition, there is a potent shortwave moving through NM/TX region this morning that is helping to develop a low pressure system in the same general vicinity. As the upper level low reaches the north Gulf Coast, it will phase with the shortwave. This in turn will help to deepen the surface low further and drive it southeast into the Gulf Basin. An attendent cold front will accompany this low as it races eastward across the Gulf waters towards the Sunshine State. By Sunday the pattern becomes very messy. The previously mentioned bowling ball will continue to barrel towards the Mid-Atlantic. In turn a secondary surface will begin developing off the Southeast US coast. This new surface low will become the dominant low pressure system and help to swing the cold front through the Keys on Monday. Precipitation along the front looks to mostly dissipate prior to arriving to the Keys. The biggest impact will be fresh northerly breezes as the front comes through. Once we get past this front, the next high pressure will settle in across the Southeast US and return us to lighter winds from the northeast and east. && .MARINE... Issued at 354 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 High pressure will briefly stall along the Eastern Seaboard today. This will allow gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes to prevail over the weekend. A developing low pressure system over the Southeast early next week will likely freshen winds again as a front surges across the region. Thereafter, the next ridge will build in and breezes will slacken. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 354 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Latest radar imagery shows showers across the distant Straits of Florida. These showers were not showing much movement to the north towards the terminals. Therefore, VCSH was not included in the TAF. However, a brief shower or two cannot be ruled out later today. Near surface winds will remain north to northeast between 4 to 9 knots through the period. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2015, the daily record warm low temperature of 81F was recorded in Key West and Marathon. This is also the warmest low temperature ever recorded in the month of November. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872 and 1950 for Marathon. OF NOTE, In 1870, the first systematic and synchronized observations were taken by 24 offices nationwide in a new division of signal service (later to become the NWS), one of which was a station in Key West at the Russell house (on the west side of Duval st. between Front and Greene). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 72 83 73 / 10 10 20 30 Marathon 80 72 82 73 / 20 10 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest