Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
986 FXUS62 KKEY 220328 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1028 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Deep layered ridging will predominate through the weekend and into next week keeping breezes gentle and rain chances nil. -Surface ridging to our north will be reinforced by a broad continental high, resulting in strengthening breezes and slight rain chances early to mid week, next week. -Temperatures will range near to slightly above normal with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s at times. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 Another gorgeous evening is ongoing across the Florida Keys. GOES East Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWAT values hovering between 0.85" and 1" throughout the Keys. KBYX radar is not detecting any shower activity and GOES East Nighttime Microphysics shows mostly low level cumulus clouds throughout the area. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 70s and dew points are in the upper 60s. High pressure remains anchored over the western North Atlantic with the center located to the north of the Bahamas. This is promoting northeast to east breezes near 10 knots north of the Chain and between 10 to 15 knots at surrounding marine platforms south of the Chain. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding shows a very dry atmospheric profile once again. However, the profile moistens some around 850 mb even more so than this time last evening. However, once again, this layer is most likely deeper over the Straits where a fair amount of cumulus remain. The PWAT value measured was around 1 inch which is near the 25th percentile for the date. Also, the wind profile in the lowest few thousand feet AGL is unidirectional out of the east between 10 to 15 knots. Since we have dry air in place, no trigger nearby, and no instability, expect a quiet night to continue with the best chance for a shower, if any, remaining over the Straits. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure spanning the Atlantic Coast and Florida will maintain gentle to moderate breezes, tending stronger over the Florida Straits. This high will weaken as it pivots out into the Atlantic overnight. This will result in slackening breezes heading into the weekend. Breezes are expected to freshen modestly early next week as a continental high driving into the eastern United States reinforces the old ridge. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both terminals through the TAF package. Some high level clouds currently over the central Gulf may traverse through the Keys overnight which may result in a brief SCT to BKN deck mainly above 12,000 ft AGL. Near surface winds will remain northeast to east between 4 to 9 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 71 80 71 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 81 72 80 70 / 0 0 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest