Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
251 FXUS62 KKEY 271013 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 513 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Showers will continue to wax and wane today ahead of a cold front on its way to the Florida Keys, but heavy, impactful rainfall isn`t expected as there is still substantial dry air aloft. -The cold front will push through the forecast area tonight, and into tomorrow morning, bringing a holiday dish of breezy to windy conditions and drier air. -The front is expected to linger across the area through at least the first half of the weekend, and the extended period of elevated surface winds will result in Small Craft Advisories being issued as early as tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 505 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 Our KBYX radar has been busy during this overnight shift as it has continued to track pockets of shower activity through the forecast area. Our sparse network of surface observations means it is difficult to obtain ground truth in terms of how much rain these showers are producing, but the Key West International Airport has measured 0.03 over the past 12 hours. Radar-derived three hour storm totals suggest some of the moderate showers over our waters have produced anywhere from 0.75 to 1.00 of rainfall, but these are in areas where multiple showers have crossed. If you have last minute shopping to do for the Thanksgiving holiday, you may want to check the radar before stepping out this morning. GOES-19 IR imagery shows partly cloudy skies with cloud decks in the lower levels as well as the upper levels. The 00Z sounding from KKEY last night showed a fair amount of dry air in the mid levels, so we will have to see how much dry air is still there when the 12Z balloon is launched in a few hours. We are in the middle of transitioning to a period of unsettled weather courtesy of an approaching cold front. GOES-19 IR imagery shows the cold front oriented southwest to northeast, and extending through the northern portion of the peninsula. Surface observations just north of the cold front are showing dew points in the lower 30s, a testament to the dry air associated with this front. The good news is that the front is still expected to pass across the Keys later tonight, so dinnertime festivities shouldnt see too much excitement outside of the chance of showers we have today. None of us will be able to miss the arrival of the front as it dishes out breezy to windy conditions, but the drier air filtering in should help to clear out some of these showers. It is worth noting here that our local waters will likely see Small Craft Advisories as early as tonight due to the magnitude of these winds, and they will likely be needed through the end of the weekend. The northerly component to these low level winds will efficiently advect cooler air in, and overnight lows tonight are expected to bottom out in the mid 60s. Anyone acclimated to our usually beautiful weather may need to reach for a jacket in the early morning hours. The progressive nature of this pattern will help to lift the remnants of the cold front away quickly, and the low level flow looks like it will shift from northerly to southeasterly. Long range guidance and ensemble members suggest a warm front nudging through sometime between Saturday night and Sunday night, bringing increased moisture and a better chance of showers. However, confidence with respect to the resulting sensible weather is relatively low since we havent cleared our Thanksgiving cold front yet. && .MARINE... Issued at 505 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters, but Small Craft Advisories will likely be required tonight as a cold front pushes through. From synopsis, a weak pressure field across the area will encourage light to gentle east to southeast breezes this morning, but a cold front pushing down the Florida peninsula will arrive to our marine zones late tonight. Breezes will back to the north and freshen quickly, and the lingering front will maintain fresh to strong breezes through the weekend. Small Craft Advisories will be needed by tonight, and will likely need to be extended through the end of the weekend. Breezes will gradually slacken over the beginning of next week. Shower activity will wax and wane throughout the marine forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 505 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 KBYX radar has been detecting showers mainly south of the Lower Keys for much of the overnight. These showers have been struggling to reach the Island Chain and have been dissipating as they approach. Therefore, mainly VFR conditions are expected with occasional brief periods of MVFR CIGs. Then a cold front is expected to press through the Keys this afternoon. This will result in a sharp increase in northerly winds. There is currently the potential for a crosswind of greater than 22 knots to develop by this evening continuing overnight. && .CLIMATE... .CLIMATE... In 1949, the daily record low temperature of 54F was recorded in Key West. Temperatures records for Key West date back to 1872. Also, in 1953, the daily record low temperature of 51F was recorded in Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 65 75 66 / 40 30 20 20 Marathon 80 65 74 67 / 40 40 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest