Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
762 FXUS62 KKEY 070848 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 348 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Mainly light to gentle southeast breezes expected through the weekend. -Moisture continues to increase resulting in slight chances today. Rain chances further increase going into Monday ahead of the next frontal passage. -Humid conditions will persist today as dew points potentially reach the upper 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 We had a brief excitement a few hours ago as thunderstorms developed off a Cuban land breeze and entered the outer Straits of Florida. However, we continue to be somewhat stable at this activity quickly dissipated. We remain in a col region as we sit between features. Winds are light from the southeast and have been on occasion variable. Humid conditions persist in the meantime with dew points still in the 70s. For today, we can expect another cloud line to potentially set up as surface winds will be light with winds in the 925-700 mb layer from the southwest. Moisture and instability will be a little better today but with that said, thinking any thunder chances will stay out across the Straits of Florida for today at least. As we go into this evening and the convergence begins increasing, we could see more robust boundary collisions occurring that a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Over the next 24 hours we see winds gradually increasing as a combination of things occur. The first is that there is a quasi- stationary front across northern Florida that will make little to no progress southward today. However, as a potent weather system developing across the Central Plains moves eastward into the southeast U.S., it will begin pushing it along late this evening. That being said, it will be weakening as it slides south and will devolve into a surface trough by the time it reaches the Florida Keys. We will see a brief window where winds will increase in response. By Monday evening, the cold front associated with the stronger system will sweep through Monday evening and overnight. This will usher in a period of moderate to fresh northerly breezes as it moves through. Earlier thinking had a clean frontal push but now most models are in alignment that this boundary will stall out across the Florida Keys. The good news is that most of the energy will stay well to our north, so the thunderstorm threat is very low. The bad news is that ample moisture will linger with this boundary and we could be looking at several dreary days with some isolated to scattered showers at times. It`ll take until Thursday before we see this boundary clear out but even then it will be brief. Models are locking on already to the next potential front for the end of the week! Stay tuned!! && .MARINE... Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Light to gentle southeast to south breezes will persist through the morning and early afternoon. Thereafter, a combination of a pre- frontal trough and approaching cold front move in from the north, we will see winds box around the compass while gradually freshening. Cold front passage is expected Monday evening and overnight with a brief period of moderate to fresh northerly breezes. Thereafter, the front will stall across the Florida Keys and Straits of Florida, potentially leading to a more active and unusual weather pattern for this time of year. There is a growing potential for another cold front to pass through towards the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH during the 06Z TAF period. Light, occasionally variable, winds are expected across the island chain. Stray to isolated showers are possible during the day, but not at coverage to warrant a TEMPO group. Winds are forecast to begin to veer southwesterly after sunset. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 74 82 70 / 20 40 50 40 Marathon 82 75 82 70 / 20 40 40 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest