428
FXUS62 KKEY 081602
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1102 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 909 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024
While Hurricane Rafael, currently located in the middle of the
Gulf of Mexico, keeps moving further away from our waters,
conditions will continue to improve for the Florida Keys. As seen
on GOES-16, cloud coverage has drastically decreased since Rafael
has moved on, leaving mostly sunny skies for our CWA. Temperatures
across the island chain are in the lower to mid 80s. Winds have
been trending downward, with sites across the Reef reporting
around 15 knots. In the Straits, winds are still slightly elevated
but will decrease later this afternoon, although the Small Craft
Advisory is no longer in effect, Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution until winds decrease and seas subside. RAOB KKEY 12z
indicates a significant drop in PWAT of almost a full inch from
last night displaying very dry air from 700mb to 500 mb, which
will limit any significant shower development. Considering the
influx of dry air, the 10% PoPs for the rest of today and tonight
are appropriate and with no significant changes to the current
forecast package neccesary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 909 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in the Straits of Florida
until winds decrease and seas subside. From synopsis, as Hurricane
Rafael continues to progress away from the western Florida Keys
marine zones, and high pressure slowly weakens in the North
Atlantic, east to southeast breezes will modestly slacken today
through Saturday. As another strong continental high pressure
system builds over the Eastern Seaboard and pushes into the
western North Atlantic, breezes will freshen for Saturday night
through Sunday. A weak easterly wave will push through the marine
zones south of the island chain late in the weekend into early
next week, resulting in slackened easterly breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 909 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. Below normal
rain chances will keep mention out of either TAF today. Near surface
winds will be out of the east to southeast from 10 to 15 knots with
some occasional gusts near 20 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record warm low
temperature of 81F was recorded in 2015 in Key West. This is also
the warmest low temperature ever recorded in November. Temperature
records for Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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