Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
734 FXUS62 KKEY 071812 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 112 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Mainly light to gentle southeast breezes expected through the rest of the day. -Moisture continues to increase resulting in slight chances today. Rain chances further increase going into Monday ahead of the next frontal passage. -Humid conditions will persist today as dew points potentially reach the upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 112 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Despite some shallow showers waxing and waning near the island chain, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH. Short term amendments will be issued for any expected sub-VFR impacts, but mention will be generally left out of the TAF due to the low coverage of ongoing convection. Near surface winds will be out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 knots, veering to the southwest after sunset. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 We had a brief excitement a few hours ago as thunderstorms developed off a Cuban land breeze and entered the outer Straits of Florida. However, we continue to be somewhat stable at this activity quickly dissipated. We remain in a col region as we sit between features. Winds are light from the southeast and have been on occasion variable. Humid conditions persist in the meantime with dew points still in the 70s. For today, we can expect another cloud line to potentially set up as surface winds will be light with winds in the 925-700 mb layer from the southwest. Moisture and instability will be a little better today but with that said, thinking any thunder chances will stay out across the Straits of Florida for today at least. As we go into this evening and the convergence begins increasing, we could see more robust boundary collisions occurring that a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Over the next 24 hours we see winds gradually increasing as a combination of things occur. The first is that there is a quasi- stationary front across northern Florida that will make little to no progress southward today. However, as a potent weather system developing across the Central Plains moves eastward into the southeast U.S., it will begin pushing it along late this evening. That being said, it will be weakening as it slides south and will devolve into a surface trough by the time it reaches the Florida Keys. We will see a brief window where winds will increase in response. By Monday evening, the cold front associated with the stronger system will sweep through Monday evening and overnight. This will usher in a period of moderate to fresh northerly breezes as it moves through. Earlier thinking had a clean frontal push but now most models are in alignment that this boundary will stall out across the Florida Keys. The good news is that most of the energy will stay well to our north, so the thunderstorm threat is very low. The bad news is that ample moisture will linger with this boundary and we could be looking at several dreary days with some isolated to scattered showers at times. It`ll take until Thursday before we see this boundary clear out but even then it will be brief. Models are locking on already to the next potential front for the end of the week! Stay tuned!! && .MARINE... Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Light to gentle southeast to south breezes will persist through the morning and early afternoon. Thereafter, a combination of a pre- frontal trough and approaching cold front move in from the north, we will see winds box around the compass while gradually freshening. Cold front passage is expected Monday evening and overnight with a brief period of moderate to fresh northerly breezes. Thereafter, the front will stall across the Florida Keys and Straits of Florida, potentially leading to a more active and unusual weather pattern for this time of year. There is a growing potential for another cold front to pass through towards the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 74 82 70 79 / 40 50 40 30 Marathon 75 82 70 78 / 40 40 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest