589
FXUS62 KKEY 051802
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
202 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal rain chances today will give way to closer to
  normal chances heading into the weekend.

- Gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes expected over the
  next few days.

- Slightly below normal temperatures today will climb closer to
  normal this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
Heavy rainfall is impacting EYW with a flood warning currently in
effect until 1530L for rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches fallen
and another 1 to 2 inches possible. TEMPO is included for limited
visibilities, lower ceilings, and wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots.
Conditions will begin to improve within the next hour or so an
thereafter VCSH with VFR conditions will prevail. For MTH VCSH is
included but nothing is directly impacting the terminal at this
time.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
Deep layered ridging is steadily gaining more control of our area
this morning as a mid latitude trough moves further away across
the North Atlantic. An expansive surface high centered over the
mid Atlantic states is maintaining moderate easterly breezes
across the Keys and surrounding waters. However, for the time
being, deep layered moisture remains very high, with last evenings
sounding depicted a nearly saturated sounding with a precipitable
water of 2.16 inches. In addition, there may still be some faint
upper level support between the departing mid latitude trough and
another unusual trough to our southwest. Local radar continues to
indicate isolated to scattered showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms across our area, and a large stratiform shield just
west our western zones. Surface dew points remain up in the mid
70s with drier air not too far off to the north.

Expect at least another day of well above normal rain chances due
to the copious moisture in place, weak CAPE, and lack of
inhibition. The previously mentioned surface high will become
centered off the Carolina Coast today and maintain mostly moderate
easterly breezes. Surface streamlines suggest that incoming air
will be arriving from higher latitudes and should help to finally
bring in some drier air. Dew points should dip for a short while
into the lower 70s, and possibly a little lower later in the day.

Precipitation chances are expected to slide further towards normal
heading into the weekend. Deep layered ridging will gain more
dominance over our area. While the band of increased lower level
moisture is expected to remain across our area, the mid and upper
levels are expected to dry out significantly with developing lower
to mid level inhibition. Surface winds will trend slowly
downwards, becoming a gentle to moderate breeze. Dew points will
trend back up into the mid 70s as the streamlines veer more
easterly. In addition, increasing sunshine will push temperatures
back up into the upper 80s.

Late this weekend and early next week, broad troughing is expected
to move westward across the Bahamas and Cuba. Easterly breezes
will slacken further as the northern fringes of this trough
trough approaches, but may pick up modestly out of the east to
southeast as it pushes west of the Keys. The more veered flow
should help bump dew points up into the mid to upper 70s by mid
week. Guidance suggests that the associated increase in lower
level moisture and confluence will result in rain chances again
climbing above normal. Uncertainty is high regarding where things
go from here. Stay Tuned.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the Florida Keys. From synopsis, an expansive eastern United
States surface high will move off the Carolina Coast today and
then push out into the Atlantic over the next few days. As a
result mostly moderate easterly breezes, will gradually give way
to gentle to moderate easterlies this weekend. The recent bout of
increased shower and thunderstorm activity is nearing its end, and
convective potential will fall closer to normal through this
period. Early next week the high will have pushed out into the
Atlantic and weak troughing is expected to set up over Cuba and
the Bahamas. This will tip breezes a bit further southeasterly
with, initially, some additional slackening.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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