Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
099 FXUS62 KKEY 020300 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1000 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible tonight, especially over the Straits of Florida. - A strong high pressure system will spread southeastward off of North America early this week, freshening northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys. Beginning Monday night, breezy conditions will be possible and marine Cautions and Advisories may be required.. - A moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. For the upcoming week, there will be a slight chance for showers. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 955 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 After a very busy end to the afternoon featuring a severe thunderstorm in the Tavernier vicinity including quarter-sized hail and damaging wind gusts, and at the far western end of our service area at Dry Tortugas, simultaenous dense fog, the evening has shifted into a much quieter mode. The evening sounding indicated several stable layers, a couple topping the boundary layer and lower troposphere, others well aloft past 650 mb. Some transient altocumulus has been forming and dissipating, with skies mostly clear in the upper Keys. Temperatures were holding in the mid 70s, with dewpoints having lowered this evening into the upper 60s. Monitoring a small cluster of thunderstorms transiting the western Straits...not intensifying much but definitely maintaining integrity with the positive buoyancy that had built up east and south of the fog area earlier today. Heights were rising at all levels as the broad upper trough axis passes to the east. Light to gentle northeast winds will continue overnight. Rain chances may be a little elevated for the next several hours, however upwind showers off Miami-Dade may move into the upper Keys before sunrise. All looks on track for a mostly dry and breezier week ahead. && .MARINE... Issued at 955 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 No watches, warnings or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters at this time. Northeast winds have been running 10 to 15 knots along the reef and 5 to 10 knots bay/Gulfside. Seas at Satan Shoal were 2 feet from the east with a 4 second period. From synopsis, a weak high pressure system over the southeastern United States will push southeastward across Florida overnight as a weak trough pulls out into the Atlantic. As a result, light breezes will pick up moderately out of the northeast. Thereafter, a large and robust high will drive southeastward off of North America into the Atlantic. This will usher in a prolonged period of moderate to fresh breezes across the area through the remainder of the forecast. A mix of cautions and possibly Advisories may be required beginning around Monday Night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 955 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight as finally slightly drier air has managed to somplete the sweep through the Keys. Northeast to east winds at a steady 6 to 9 knots are expected to prevail overnight, before becoming a little more easterly and increasing to 9 to 12 knots by mid morning Monday. Dry conditions are expected with isolated showers confined to the offshore Straits of Florida tonight with a slight chance for a shower or two working through the Keys Monday from the Atlantic. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JR Aviation/Nowcasts....JR Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest