Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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068
FXUS62 KKEY 231944
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
244 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

A magnificent day of weather is ongoing across the Florida Keys.
Temperatures have reached around 70 degrees on most islands, with
dew points in the mid to upper 50s. A majority of the island
chain and surrounding coastal waters have been shadowed by the
mainland in terms of winds, with the Lower Keys being the only
area seeing winds above 5 to 10 mph. CIMSS MIMIC TPW places an
extremely dry airmass over a majority of the eastern U.S, and
clouds are hard to come by this afternoon. A broad field of
stratocumuls is located west of the Florida Peninsula in the Gulf,
but the Keys are seeing a rare clear sky day.

Not much change in the sensible weather across the Florida Keys is
expected overnight. The main question is just how low temperatures
will get on the protected areas of the larger islands. Winds may
be light enough due to decoupling to allow for some radiational
cooling. The expected clear skies will also play a large part in
this. Dew points will be in the lower to mid 50s, so we may see
the first temperature measurements in the 50s of the season in
the Lower Keys. Otherwise, temperatures will generally range from
60 to 65 degrees. By tomorrow morning, the high over the
Mississippi Valley that has provided us with the extended period
of northerly breezes will start its trek east to southeastward. In
response, Our winds will begin to veer to the northeast to east.
Both temperatures and dew points will begin to climb back closer
to climatology as a result. There is some discrepancy between the
ECMWF and GFS MOS guidance as to how much the temperature will
recover, so have stuck with the middle ground between the two.

On Monday, the high will be straddled across Florida. Steering
flow across our area will be from the east to southeast, and some
of the moisture that has been lurking to our south will likely
creep back towards the Keys. This will occur in conjunction with
troughiness that is expected to develop over the Gulf on Sunday
sliding over Florida. This will be the best shot that the Keys
have to see a few isolated showers, but current thoughts are that
most of the activity that manages to develop will remain in the
Straits of Florida on Monday and Tuesday.

Thereafter, a continued benign forecast is on tap for the Florida
Keys. Generally zonal flow and dry air will keep the region
convection free through most of next week. Global models are
suggesting another frontal passage by late next week. We will
continue to monitor this, but we will also continue to enjoy this
wonderful airmass from our last front before we start wishing for
another front!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys coastal waters. North to northeast breezes have
slackened this afternoon, and gentle to occasionally moderate
breezes will prevail through the weekend. Breezes will gradually
veer to the northeast to east through midweek as a broad high
pressure system becomes established over the southeastern United
States. Dry weather will persist across the Florida Keys waters
through Monday with a possibility of isolated showers, mainly over
the Florida Straits, on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 244 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Deep layers of dry air from the low to upper atmosphere will support
prevailing VFR conditions at EYW and MTH through 18Z. Northeasterly
breezes will persist with speeds between 5 and 10 knots. Occasional
gusts are expected, but not at a high enough frequency to warrant an
inclusion in the TAFs. In a rarity for the Keys, SKC conditions are
expected through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1905, local standard time was changed to the seventy-fifth meridian
time, made by omitting the hour between 11 a.m. and noon, on Thursday,
November 23, 1905. This action was taken "in order that the time on the
city clocks might be the same as that of the naval station, the telegraph
office, and the ships calling there."

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  67  75  72  79 /   0   0   0   0
Marathon  66  75  71  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...NB
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP

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