Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
947 FXUS62 KKEY 070223 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1023 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and thunder chances will remain near zero for the Keys through the weekend. - Dew points will increase to the mid 70s by the end of the week. Combined with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, this will support potential elevated heat risk concerns for the weekend. - Limited total rainfall amounts are expected through early next week for most island communities. This will continue to exacerbate existing drought conditions across the Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1022 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026 CIMSS products shows deep mean layer ridging remains anchored across the Gulf. At the surface, high pressure remains in place across the western North Atlantic. This ridge is only subtly having an influence across the Keys as the gradient remains rather weak. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Florida Keys are recording east to southeast breezes between 5 to 10 knots. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows very dry air entrenched across the Keys with PWAT values estimated to be between 0.7 to 0.91 inches. KBYX radar is void of any shower activity as a result. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows a mostly clear sky with just some high cirrus across eastern portions of the Straits. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s and dew points are in the lower 70s. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding is dry to say the least for tonight. The sounding is virtually dry from the surface through the entire column of the atmosphere. The PWAT value measured was 0.91 inches which places this right below the 10th percentile for the date. The wind profile is also quite chaotic through the lowest 3000 ft of the atmosphere which is not indicative of any shower activity. Therefore, expect the night to remain dry and cloud free also. No changes to the ongoing forecast as a result. && .MARINE... Issued at 1022 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a series of weak high pressure systems in the west- central North Atlantic will support light to gentle, mainly southeasterly, breezes over the next several days. Strong upper-level ridging across the Gulf eastward to the Bahamas will also yield near- nil rain and thunder chances through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period for both EYW and MTH terminals. Near surface winds will remain east to southeast through the overnight becoming more southeast to south towards the pre dawn through afternoon hours. Dry air remains in entrenched across the Keys keeping rain chances nil. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 79 89 80 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 85 79 86 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest