Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
329 FXUS62 KKEY 261901 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 301 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Another beautiful late April afternoon is upon the Florida Keys after this morning`s rainy start. While GOES-19 visible satellite imagery notes clouds clearing across the island chain, KBYX radar detects a few remaining thunderstorms marching west through our waters surrounding the Dry Tortugas. These storms have had a chance to take advantage of daytime heating modifying the thermodynamic profile to overachieve, but their impacts are no longer felt over the island chain. Meanwhile, temperatures across the Keys now range in the lower to mid 80s due to clearer skies above. Easterly breezes observed along the Reef tract have generally slackened from this morning with now gentle to moderate magnitudes reporting in. It is worth noting that Sand Key, our southernmost observation, is still running a couple knots higher than the rest. The short term forecast looks to continue the relatively quiet weather. Model soundings for 18z depict a different profile than our KKEY 12z sounding from this morning. Mainly being a drying out of the layer above 950 mb and the disappearance of ML CAPE through the loss of the elevated mixed layer. CIMSS MIMIC PW adds credence to this depiction as a swath of dry air is seen filling in over the Keys behind the moisture associated with our ongoing storms. Unlike last night, there is not another moisture undulation observed behind this dry air. Add the lack of this feature to gradually slackening winds to result in a forecast of near nil PoPs tonight and into the near future. Despite changes in conditions aloft, temperatures will remain warm with lows in the mid 70s and highs ranging about the lower to mid 80s. Not much excitement is in the extended forecast this time around. The surface high that has hold of our sensible weather over the last week or so will finally make its exit into the western North Atlantic over the next 24 hours or so. This will make way for yet another ridge to slide in and root itself over the Eastern Seaboard. Some detail was added in the extended marine forecast to describe oscillating magnitudes of winds between moderate to fresh values as the associated surface high wobbles about the east coast of CONUS. This high may also bring some backdoor moisture around its eastern periphery, thus opted to keep near normal PoPs introduced early on next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure centered to the southeast of New England will support moderate easterly breezes through the weekend as it meanders east. A second area of high pressure will push eastward from the Mid- Atlantic into the western North Atlantic early next week, helping to reinforce the stagnant, mainly dry synoptic pattern and easterly breezes. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Cloud cover will gradually clear during the 18Z TAF period for both EYW and MTH. VFR conditions will prevail as drier conditions push over the island terminals, and lingering showers west of EYW will gradually diminish before sunset. Easterly winds will slowly decrease from 10 to 15 knots to near 10, and gusts are expected to become sufficiently infrequent to drop out of the TAFs. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, in 2015, the daily record warm low temperature of 81F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied for the warmest low temperature ever recorded in April.Temperature data for Key West dates back to July 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 75 84 75 84 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 75 85 75 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest