Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
061 FXUS62 KKEY 080926 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 426 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 426 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 The weather has certainly quieted down over the last 24 hours. Hurricane Rafael continues to slowly move westward across the central Gulf of Mexico and well away from the Florida Keys. Broad high pressure across the western North Atlantic is filling back in behind. This is maintaining moderate to fresh breezes across the region, strongest in our far western waters. KBYX earlier in the night showed a healthy band of showers moving through the area. Said band has greatly diminished over the last couple of hours and only a few meager showers remain. Lastly, an east to southeast flow plus lingering clouds has kept overnight temperatures mild near 80 degrees. .FORECAST... A pocket of drier air to our east will advect in today and decrease shower potential as well as some of the current cloud cover. In addition, as Rafael continues to pull away, the gradient across the region will continue to lessen and winds will slowly subside through the afternoon. By Saturday, the next continental high will slide into the Eastern Seaboard and by Saturday night, it will build southward. This will lead to the gradient tightening up once again. Expect another period of breezy conditions across the island chain Saturday night through Sunday evening. As the high slides out over the open waters of the North Atlantic, a weak tropical wave will slide westward underneath the high. This will bring a quick shot of enhanced moisture and above normal rain chances Sunday through Monday. Thereafter, confidence quickly drops as our sensible weather pattern will depend on how Rafael moves and eventually dissipates. The EC initially would have it stall in the central Gulf before sliding further west and dissipating. This would allow for a longer period of easterly winds across the area. The GFS on the other hand has Rafael making a slow turn to the north and dissipating near the Gulf coast of Louisiana, which would keep us more in a nebulous wind regime. Sadly the differences do not stop there. The EC also has a stronger frontal boundary trying to sweep through on Wednesday with a weaker solution on the GFS. There is a light at the end of the tunnel to these discrepancies. Once we get past mid week the models remain in good sync on a frontal passage for the end of next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 426 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 Fresh east to southeast breezes persist across the far western waters. As such, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for these waters. Elsewhere, moderate to occasional fresh breezes persist with Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines. As Hurricane Rafael continues to progress away from the western Florida Keys marine zones, and high pressure slowly weakens in the North Atlantic, east to southeast breezes will modestly slacken today through Saturday. As another strong continental high pressure system builds over the Eastern Seaboard and pushes into the western North Atlantic, breezes will freshen for Saturday night through Sunday. A weak easterly wave will push through the marine zones south of the island chain late in the weekend into early next week, resulting in slackened easterly breezes. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 426 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 Hurricane Rafael will continue moving westward today while slowly weakening. A few showers remain across the western waters of the Keys, but, these showers are not expected to impact the terminals. However, there are some low CIGs lingering, therefore, there may be some brief periods of MVFR CIGs this morning. Near surface east to southeasterly winds will remain elevated through the morning hours at near 15 knots with gusts of near 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots during the day. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record warm low temperature of 81F was recorded in 2015 in Key West. This is also the warmest low temperature ever recorded in November. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 86 78 85 78 / 10 20 10 20 Marathon 85 78 85 78 / 10 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ034-055-075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest