Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
965 FXUS62 KKEY 140337 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1037 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog is possible Saturday morning across the cooler waters of the southeastern Gulf, and potentially within the interior of the larger islands. - Winds will increase Saturday, peaking Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of the next weak cold front. Although rain chances are in the forecast ahead of and along the cold front, mainly dry conditions will continue for the next seven days. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 It`s another quiet evening in the Keys. Breezes are light out of the northwest, mainly due to the formation of a heat low over South Florida, overwhelming the light northeasterly steering being pushed by a high centered over the Virginias. Temperatures are near 70 with dew points broadly in the lower 60s. This evening`s sounding depicted a healthy inversion based around 700 mb with considerable dry air above. There was also some drier air through the lower levels. Precipitable water was 1.21 inches, near the 75% percentile. Despite some room for low topped showers, relatively dry air and poor kinematics has kept the Keys clear of precipitation. The most significant feature for the overnight is a broad deck of stratus/fog on our gulf side waters. This activity continues to slide southeastwards towards the Lower and Middle Keys. It is difficult to determine whether this deck is on the ground. The main reason for this is nearshore gulf water temperatures are likely in the upper 60s, a few degrees above the dew points. Meanwhile, waters off of Naples are likely near 60. Expect overnight lows to be broadly in the lower 60s. Winds will be light out of the northwest, becoming northeast as earlier heating effects dissipate and the synoptic establishes itself. In addition to the low stratus/fog heading our way, the weak flow and minimal to nil dew point depression will allow for patchy fog in interior and sheltered locations. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 A robust surface high centered over the Virginias is not contributing much to the local pressure gradient. As a result, earlier day time heating has dominated the flow this evening and marine breezes are light out of the northwest. Expect breezes to remain light and gradually clock northeast overnight as local effects wear off and the high exerts a bit more influence. A broad swath of stratus/fog will affect our gulf side waters. While dense fog cannot be ruled out, for the time being, will maintain patchy fog wording in the evening marine update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 A field of low stratus/fog is rolling slowly southeastward through the gulf waters adjacent to the Lower and Middle Keys. There is considerable uncertainty regarding this cloud deck. Recent observations out of Naples indicate 1.5 mile visibility, but 200 ft ceilings. However, it is likely that water temperatures nearer the Middle Keys are 3 to 5 degrees warmer than off of Naples. This should translate to less of a visibility impact, but still IFR ceilings. The MTH TAF has already been adjusted to introduce a sizable block of IFR ceilings. For the time being, have held off on amending the EYW TAF due to even warmer water temperatures and the relatively slow southeastward progress of the cloud deck. Expect surface winds to be light out of the northwest, shifting northeasterly overnight. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest