766
FXUS62 KKEY 300937
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
437 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Light to gentle breezes will sharply freshen this morning as a
 cold front moves through.

-Slight chances for rain possible ahead of and along the frontal
 passage this morning.

-Coldest air of the season arrives today! Early morning highs
 near 70 degrees will fall during the afternoon into the lower to
 mid 60s with overnight lows near 50 degrees in the Upper Keys and
 mid to upper 50s for the Middle and Lower Keys.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025
A cold front is rapidly moving through the Florida Keys early
this morning. KBYX radar shows a few sprinkles/light rain showers
along a rope cloud moving southeastward between 15 to 20 knots
through the southeast Gulf waters. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics
imagery also shows the thin rope cloud moving southeastward across
the southeast Gulf waters. Behind the rope cloud is an area of
lower stratus which is also moving southeastward. This area of
cloud cover is anticipated to move over the Keys later this
morning followed by clearing during the mid to late afternoon.
Marine platforms surrounding the Island Chain are observing west
to northwest breezes near 10 knots. However, a buoy just outside
the Gulf waters observed 23 knots gusting to 29 knots after 3 am.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the upper 60s to lower
70s and dew points are in the upper 60s.

.FORECAST...
The aforementioned cold front is expected to continue pressing
southeastward this morning. This will usher in the coldest air
mass of the season thus far for the Florida Keys. Also, this cold
snap will line of up right with the New Year`s holiday making it a
chilly one. Northwest to north breezes will freshen rapidly this
morning, especially across the Lower and Middle Keys. The Upper
Keys will take a little bit longer for the breezy conditions to
develop with this most likely developing tonight. Temperatures
will become noticeably colder with overnight lows near 50 in the
Upper Keys tonight and the mid 50s for the Middle and Lower Keys.
Dew points are also expected to tumble with many areas seeing dew
points drop into the 40s, perhaps even the 30s. There are even
some indications portions of the Upper Keys may see dew points
fall into the upper 20s! These dew points will be indicative of
the dry/Canadian air mass moving into the area.

In the wake of the front, breezy conditions are expected to
continue tonight into at least early Wednesday morning. Strong
high pressure over Texas this morning will continue moving to the
east to southeast throughout the week while slowly weakening. Due
to the slow movement of the high, the northwest to north flow will
linger into New Years Day/Thursday night before breezes start to
shift to the northeast. Even though breezes slacken a little bit
on Wednesday, a subtler wind surge is anticipated New Years Eve
night into New Years Day due to the mainland nocturnal land
breeze. In addition, the coldest temperatures are expected to
occur New Years Eve night just in time to ring in 2026! Overnight
lows into New Years Day morning are expected to be in the upper
40s for the Upper Keys and mid to upper 50s for the Middle and
Lower Keys. Temperatures will start to slowly rebound beginning
Friday with highs getting back towards 70 degrees and overnight
lows back into the 60s. Over the weekend, temperatures will be
back to near normal which is highs in the mid 70s and overnight
lows in the mid 60s. Dry air will remain entrenched across the
Keys through the period leading to nil rain chances through
Saturday.

Another potentially reinforcing/weak front may press through the
Keys during the second half of the weekend into early next week.
However, the timing, intensity, and if this front will even push
through remains to be seen. Stay tuned!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the Florida Keys
coastal waters, except for the easternmost zones where winds will
take a little longer to freshen. From synopsis, a cold front will
continue pressing through the Keys this morning. This will lead
to freshening northerly breezes, thus A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters today, except for
the easternmost waters where breezes will take more time to
freshen. In the wake of the front, high pressure currently across
Texas will slowly weaken as it moves east to southeast into the
eastern Gulf. This will promote gradually slackening breezes. This
high moves overhead towards the end of the week/weekend resulting
in further slackening breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025
VFR conditions will initially prevail at EYW and MTH. A cold
front is forecast to pass over the island chain just after
sunrise. Near surface winds are forecast to rapidly shift north
and increase in the post frontal environment. Northerly crosswinds
in excess of 20 knots are expected at both island terminals. MVFR
CIGs near FL025 are possible post front, thus a TEMPO group was
included.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  71  57  65  57 /  20   0   0   0
Marathon  71  54  63  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for GMZ032>035-043-
     044-053>055-073>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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