Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
330 FXUS62 KKEY 051724 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 124 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Some light showers are possible through this evening but confidence in location will leave mention of VCSH only in MTH for the time being. Near surface winds will be northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 What was a busy start to the morning has started to calm down and now KBYX is only detecting a few isolated light showers in the deep Gulf waters. While showers are currently limited, the KKEY 12z sounding revealed ample moisture in the atmosphere. MIMIC Precipitable Water also depicts we are in a very moist environment. Temperatures across the island chain are currently in the mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s making for a humid mid- morning. Along the Reef, winds are northeast to east at near 10 knots. For today, showers will continue to pop up in various locations across the CWA but coverage is still expected to be just above near normal for this time of year, though due to the lack of steering flow, these showers will continue to struggle to sustain themselves. Winds will slightly slacken in the afternoon becoming light to gentle. No changes were needed for this update. Happy Sunday! && .FORECAST... Issued at 427 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 The aforementioned stationary front will stay true to its name over the coming days. This boundary will make subtle moves north and south but in the grand scheme of things it will generally stay over the Florida Keys. This will result in an active period mired with scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms at times. At the same time, a series of weak easterly undulations will round the base of a broad ridge that extends from the Mississippi Valley to the central Atlantic. These undulations will allow rain chances to peak and lull, meaning there will be days that are wetter than others. As of right now, there remains uncertainty where and when these impulses will ripple across the stationary front. For now, will stay the course and keep advertising with above normal rain chances through the next several days. Regardless if we get these easterly undulations to pass through, we will have a moist, deep easterly flow, which will promote at least above normal rain chances. Earlier indications were that we would see the broad high build equatorward across the Keys, but the high looks to stay further north. As a result, while we will be under the influence of the high, we are not expecting freshening easterly breezes for the later half of the forecast period at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1111 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a combination of a stationary frontal boundary and a weak area of low pressure situated near the Bahamas will make for a messy weather pattern through the next several days. This will maintain above normal rain chances through the entire forecast period. In addition, it will keeps winds fluctuating between northeast and southeast at times. At this time, the strongest breezes look to stay north of our waters but will bear watching for updates. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest