Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
410 FXUS62 KKEY 081732 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 132 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Chances for rainfall remain elevated, between 60% and 70%, over the next few days as an unsettled pattern remains in place. -A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys. The combination of the current King Tide cycle and persistent bouts of rainfall will support additional flooding over roadways and low lying lots. Coastal flooding will likely continue into the weekend. -Drier air will filter in over the weekend, and offer the first taste of the Fall season for the Florida Keys. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Despite a generally wet pattern through 18z Thursday afternoon, shower covered will be scattered, with VFR conditions generally prevailing. Any stronger shower will be capable of producing sub- VFR ceilings and visibilities, along with brief gusty winds. Due to the scattered nature of the convection, a general mention of VCSH is included in the TAFs for now, with sub-VFR bouts left to later amendment issuances, including possible TEMPOs. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Composite satellite-derived wind and vorticity analysis places a low- and mid-level inverted trough axis just to the east of the Straits of Florida, along with an upper-level trough across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Owed to the proximity of the inverted trough, KBYX Doppler radar is detecting numerous showers across the Florida Keys and adjacent marine zones. The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled a unidirectional low-level wind profile, a moisture-enriched lower troposphere, coupled with modest dry air in the 800-650 mb isobaric layer. The forecast calls for continued bouts of generally light to moderate showers throughout the first period, with only slight lightning risk owed to an expanded, tropical tropospheric column and the aforementioned modest dry air aloft. Although total rainfall amounts are not expected to be high today, any quick downpours will exacerbate existing seasonal King Tides and associated coastal flooding throughout the Keys. && .FORECAST... Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Over the next few days. this non tropical low will slowly drag across our forecast area. CIMSS Vorticity shows stacked energy through the low and mid levels, and this will be the lifting mechanism. Therefore, we will keep PoPs fluctuating between 60 and 70 percent through Friday night. Any shower could build enough to be a thunderstorm, but overall thunderstorm coverage should be isolated, or slight chance. Global model forecast soundings look a little too wet to support significant thunderstorm coverage. Due to the scattered nature of these showers, it is difficult to narrow in on rainfall amounts. The takeaway is that these showers are coinciding with the King Tide Cycle, and localized flooding could be exacerbated if heavy showers move through during high tide. A deepening trough over the southeastern U.S. will push a frontal boundary down the peninsula, and there is still some question as to where the front ends up. Current guidance suggests we will feel the effects of a prefrontal boundary over the weekend, and dew points may approach the 70s degree mark. Regardless of the numbers, this may be the Keys first taste of Fall-like weather. && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 A combination of seasonal King Tides, combined with elevated tidal anomalies, will support elevated high tides over the next several days. Mariners should account for less clearance under fixed bridges, especially around the times of the daily higher high tide. From synopsis, an inverted trough will remain in the vicinity of the Florida Keys marine zones over the next several days, supporting bouts of elevated rain chances. The proximity of the trough to the Keys will maintain generally gentle northeast to east breezes through the end of the work week. A developing area of low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas will drive an early season cold front towards the Keys over the weekend, and also backing winds to the north to northeast. Northerly swells will be possible in our eastern marine zones late in the weekend into early next week due to the influence of the low pressure system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 78 87 77 / 60 70 70 70 Marathon 87 78 86 77 / 60 70 70 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest