103
FXUS62 KKEY 020334
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1034 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small Craft Advisories conditions are expected to continue for
  all Florida Keys coastal waters through the overnight.

- Bitter cold wind chills overnight for the Upper Keys. A Cold
  Weather Advisory in effect overnight into Monday morning.

- Weather will trend drier and modestly warmer over the next few
  days, but another round of unsettled weather may move through at
  the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Very cold conditions persist this evening in wake of yesterdays
extraordinary cold front. The cold is being sustained by fresh
northwest to northerly breezes, driven by a very cold high cell
sliding eastward along the Gulf coast. Temperatures are
currently in the lower to mid 50s for much of the island chain.
The Upper Keys remain in the cold South Florida shadow and are
currently in the mid 40s. While cold air stratocumulus continues
to ride southeastward across the Lower and Middle Keys, the Upper
Keys, as well as South Florida, have been clear for awhile.

Some notable records have been broken with this cold outbreak.
This evenings sounding recorded a daily record low precipitable
water of .38 inches, beating the prior record of .47 inches.
Miami`s sounding was even more impressive with .17 inches, with
the prior record being .38 inches. Marathon`s low temperature of
44 degrees, shattered the prior record by 10 degrees. In
addition, Marathon is on track to record a record cold high of 57
degrees, beating the previous record of 65 degrees. The cold air
pouring off of South Florida resulted in some island locations
reaching daily minimum temperatures well after sunrise. Harbor Key
Bank Light, a Weatherflow mesonet station gulf side of Big Pine
Key hit 46 F at 10 AM, while Boca Chica saw its minimum of 50 F
around noon. Finally, Ocean Reef saw 37 F around 8 am, with a wind
chill of 27 F.

The previously mentioned high cell will press further eastward
along the gulf coast overnight and continue to pour cold air
southward across Florida and the Keys. While winds will be quite
a bit weaker tonight, they will generally remain moderate to
fresh. Some modest lulling is expected for the Lower and Middle
Keys region. However, mainland radiational cooling should help to
accelerate a land breeze affecting the Upper Keys and adjacent
waters. Expect overnight lows similar to slightly lower than the
previous night, but with modestly higher wind chill readings due
to the weaker flow. Expect the clearing trend to continue, from
east to west, due to the lower level flow veering further north.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Fresh northwest to northerly breezes will continue on Keys waters
overnight. Winds may trend downwards on waters west of the Seven
Mile Bridge, but surge a bit further to the east due to the
expected formation of a South Florida land breeze. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for all waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. Stratocumulus
should clear out of MTH before morning. Stratocumulus should
linger a bit longer at EYW. Surface winds will be moderate to
fresh out of the northwest to north, with a significant crosswind
component.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ076.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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