Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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235
FXUS62 KKEY 221939
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
239 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024
Dry, continental air became well-established across the Florida
Keys over the past few days. While it took a day for dew points
across the Keys to drop into the 40s to 50s after a cold frontal
passage on Wednesday, dry and comparatively chilly weather is in
place atop southern Florida. Highs today are in the low to mid
70s. On the larger scale, a very deep trough located over the
eastern seaboard will continue to force deep layers of dry,
subsident air into the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Mostly clear
conditions are likely tonight as the 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT air, as
sampled by GOES-E TPW, persists through the overnight hours.
Conditions for the weekend look to be cool, dry, mostly clear
(particularly for the Middle and Upper Keys), and breezes slowly
slackening to moderate.

Forecasts for Thanksgiving week get a bit more chaotic. Over the
continental United States, numerical model ensembles depict a very
zonal flow field with weak clipper systems across the northern
States. The forecast impact for Florida is that the deep layers of
dry, subsident air would remain in place through Thanksgiving.
Statistical models show a very weak trough could develop over the
Gulf of Mexico early next week and supply a very shallow layer of
moisture and near-normal rain chances for Tuesday. Dew points may
recover back into the mid to upper 60s late Monday, but afterwards
the dry, near-nil showers return. Finally, thanks to the very
zonal weather pattern calculated by the ensembles, forecast
breezes remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through next
Friday.

Overall, the start to the holiday season looks extremely quiet for
the Florida Keys. Please stay updated for any changes, and enjoy,
hopefully, end of extremely muggy conditions for the year.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024
From synopsis, northwest to north breezes will slowly slacken to
moderate, occasionally gentle, over the weekend. Breezes will
gradually veer to the northeast to east by midweek as a broad high
pressure system becomes established over the southeastern United
States. Dry weather will persist across the Florida Keys waters
through Monday with a possibility of isolated showers, mainly over
the Florida Straits, on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024
VFR and dry conditions will continue to prevail at both terminals
through the forecast period. Winds have slackened this afternoon
at both EYW and MTH, however, a minor surge is expected shortly
around sunset. Favorable wind direction from the northwest will
keep a layer of stratocu across EYW overnight. Clouds will scour
out Saturday morning as high pressure moves into the southeast
U.S. and draws in drier air off the mainland, along with lighter
northeast winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys weather history in 2006, the daily record low
temperature of 55F was recorded at Key West International Airport.
Temperature data for Key West dates back to 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....MC

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