Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
235 FXUS62 KKEY 221939 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 239 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Dry, continental air became well-established across the Florida Keys over the past few days. While it took a day for dew points across the Keys to drop into the 40s to 50s after a cold frontal passage on Wednesday, dry and comparatively chilly weather is in place atop southern Florida. Highs today are in the low to mid 70s. On the larger scale, a very deep trough located over the eastern seaboard will continue to force deep layers of dry, subsident air into the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Mostly clear conditions are likely tonight as the 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT air, as sampled by GOES-E TPW, persists through the overnight hours. Conditions for the weekend look to be cool, dry, mostly clear (particularly for the Middle and Upper Keys), and breezes slowly slackening to moderate. Forecasts for Thanksgiving week get a bit more chaotic. Over the continental United States, numerical model ensembles depict a very zonal flow field with weak clipper systems across the northern States. The forecast impact for Florida is that the deep layers of dry, subsident air would remain in place through Thanksgiving. Statistical models show a very weak trough could develop over the Gulf of Mexico early next week and supply a very shallow layer of moisture and near-normal rain chances for Tuesday. Dew points may recover back into the mid to upper 60s late Monday, but afterwards the dry, near-nil showers return. Finally, thanks to the very zonal weather pattern calculated by the ensembles, forecast breezes remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through next Friday. Overall, the start to the holiday season looks extremely quiet for the Florida Keys. Please stay updated for any changes, and enjoy, hopefully, end of extremely muggy conditions for the year. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 From synopsis, northwest to north breezes will slowly slacken to moderate, occasionally gentle, over the weekend. Breezes will gradually veer to the northeast to east by midweek as a broad high pressure system becomes established over the southeastern United States. Dry weather will persist across the Florida Keys waters through Monday with a possibility of isolated showers, mainly over the Florida Straits, on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR and dry conditions will continue to prevail at both terminals through the forecast period. Winds have slackened this afternoon at both EYW and MTH, however, a minor surge is expected shortly around sunset. Favorable wind direction from the northwest will keep a layer of stratocu across EYW overnight. Clouds will scour out Saturday morning as high pressure moves into the southeast U.S. and draws in drier air off the mainland, along with lighter northeast winds. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history in 2006, the daily record low temperature of 55F was recorded at Key West International Airport. Temperature data for Key West dates back to 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest