Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
460 FXUS62 KKEY 281426 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1026 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through today as moisture lingers in the area, later tonight dry air will move in limiting more development. - Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy. - There will be little relief in the warm temperatures overnight, with minimum temperatures near record values in the lower to mid 80s for most communities. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1026 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 A little bit of a late start to the activity, but KBYX radar sure has come to life with numerous showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. We have a relatively moisture rich east to southeast flow with just enough instability and lift to freely develop in the absence of large scale lifting mechanisms. Most of the activity is in the form of showers along and south of the island chain. However, across the extreme Southeast Gulf waters, we have a classic mass and momentum collision occurring. Wind speeds are slowing down across the Southeast Gulf which is allowing for the "mass" the pile up. This piling up forces the air upwards in a vertical motion to compensate. As a result, showers out over these waters have occasionally developed into isolated thunderstorms. This moisture plume will be mainly limited to this morning and we should see a gradual decrease in available moisture through the remainder of the day. Made changes to the going forecast to increase our rain chances, mainly for this morning. Went ahead and bumped up PoPs to 50 percent, and then gradually coming down through the afternoon. This will result in minor changes to the coastal waters forecast but only for weather. Outside of convection we continue to see an east to southeast wind of near 10 mph, or about 12 knots and this will persist into the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1026 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will be found across the Southeast Gulf waters with more of a scattered coverage elsewhere through this afternoon. Mariners should be aware that the stronger activity will tend to favor the waters north of the island chain this afternoon. Watch out for gusty erratic winds, blinding downpours, and bouts of frequent lightning across these waters especially. Outside of convection, light to gentle east to southeast breezes prevail north of the island chain with gentle to moderate out across the Hawk Channel and Straits of Florida. Breezes north of the island chain look to return to gentle to moderate this evening and overnight as a nocturnal surge develops. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Scattered showers have developed and passed over the island terminals at time. These showers have been brief with very limited impacts to the terminals. Additional showers and potentially a thunderstorm or two is possible through the afternoon and could bring MVFR or brief IFR conditions as they pass through. Outside of convection, winds will remain 10 knots or less out of the east to southeast. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Another summer night has come and gone in the Florida Keys. A majority of the night KBYX has been busy with scattered showers and thunderstorms popping up in different locations across our area. Though coverage has been widespread over the waters, the island chain has not gotten much measurable rainfall. Outside of these areas of convection, skies are mostly clear seen on Nighttime Microphysics. Temperatures across the islands are in the lower 80s slightly cooler than previous nights probably due to some showers cooling it off a bit. Along the Reef, marine observation sites are reporting easterly winds at near 10 knots. Broad high pressure is still expected to be the main feature through early next week supporting the continuation of light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes. A frontal boundary is projected to move into northern Florida and into central Florida starting late Monday but it is not expected to have much impact on the local weather here other than slightly weakening the high and allowing for our breezes to slacken. Temperatures are expected to stay generally at near 90 with dewpoints in the mid 70s meaning the muggy conditions aren`t going anywhere anytime soon. Stay hydrated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 84 92 83 / 50 20 20 20 Marathon 89 83 90 84 / 50 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW/AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest