Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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225
FXUS62 KKEY 061738
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
138 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. A cloud line is attempting to form over the Lower Keys at
times producing light showers, therefore, VCSH is included at
EYW. Near surface winds will be variable at near 5 knots, becoming
north to northeast.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Another warm and humid mid-morning is ongoing for the Florida
Keys. GOES-19 Satellite shows partly to mostly sunny skies and
with temperatures in the mid 80s coupled with dewpoints in the
upper 70s, it is kind of swampy out there. A few isolated showers
are being detected on KBYX but the coverage and strength has
deteriorated in these cells since earlier this morning. Surface
winds are light and variable, generally northeast to east
indicating we are in a weak synoptic flow pattern at the moment.
Aloft, a broad area of weak ridging remains centered over the
Gulf, while a shallow trough and low level vorticity axis lingers
to the east across the Bahamas. While showers are currently
limited, ample moisture continues to funnel into the area off of a
stationary boundary just north of the Keys. For the rest of the
day, showers will continue to linger around with different
boundary interactions, but significant rainfall is not expected at
this time. No changes were necessary to this update package.

&&

.FORECAST...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Weather conditions have mostly behaved during this overnight
shift, but some pockets of showers are popping up in portions of
our local waters as we type out this discussion. The pattern is
still messy as there is a stationary boundary draped across the
area coupled with an area of low level vorticity over the Bahamas.
GOES-19 Cloud Top shows a mix of mid and upper level clouds, and
automated observations at both of our airports confirm that these
clouds have mainly been above 12k feet. These higher clouds should
make for a beautiful sunrise without lower clouds blocking the
view!

Surface observations both along the island chain and on marine
platforms are showing breezes out of the north to northeast near 5
knots, or 6 mph. Occasionally, a stray variable breeze will be
reported, but this north to northeasterly flow should prevail
today. The very slow movement of the activity on radar suggests
mean layers winds are exceptionally light, but this won`t be a
problem when these showers sit over the water. However, if and
when showers are able to build over our island communities, the
stagnant flow may lead to near stationary showers. This could lead
to localized flooding concerns as water levels have already been
elevated during high tide cycles lately. Considering the
essentially untapped environment reflected in last night`s 00Z
KKEY sounding, there is plenty of opportunity for on and of
showers today with embedded thunderstorms at times.

The general pattern looks to remain the same over the next few
days. The weak area of vorticity still looks like it`ll gradually
trail across our area, and ensemble guidance suggests high chances
of accumulating rainfall through Friday. As this happens, a
tightening gradient over Florida will lead to some elevated
breezes. The remnants of this vorticity will be ushered away as we
progress through the weekend. MOS guidance is starting to hint at
dew points in the lower 70s by the weekend, suggesting an
approaching cold front will help to dry things out, and make
weather conditions a little more comfortable along the Keys.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1111 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a combination of a
stationary frontal boundary and a weak area of low pressure still
situated near the Bahamas will make for a messy weather pattern
through the next several days. This will maintain above normal
rain chances through the entire forecast period. In addition, it
will keeps winds fluctuating between northeast and southeast at
times. At this time, the strongest breezes look to stay north of
our waters but will be watching for updates.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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